Proposals for formalising evidence evaluation fascinate n disturb me. It's notable that a certain type of study strongly predicts policy success. But the key lesson from recent #philsci that evidence is only strong when you can *combine* different types of it into a robust theory of change.
Reposted from
Kai Ruggeri
In a study of 100 policies & 250 policymakers, we find that a) there's no such thing as the "best" type of evidence, and b) the scale of evidence used in decisions can be a strong predictor of policy effectiveness.
Freely available to all @policysciences.bsky.social
Freely available to all @policysciences.bsky.social
Comments
A bunch of trials include FGs as part of the implementation and process evaluation - they're v. useful.
phenomena which, on the basis of our background knowledge, we would not have
expected to occur. (Laudan, 1971, p. 371)
those which were contemplated in the formation of our hypothesis”;
1) When an hypothesis is capable of explaining two (or more) known classes of facts (or laws);
(Laudan, 1971, p. 371)