Although I have concerns about much of this poll, it's a record-setting 7% share for Alba that is most egregious. With pollsters that *don't* have high-Alba house effects, the party has averaged 2.1% since 2021, peaking at 3%. Norstat, average 4%, peak 5%. FindOutNow, average 5.7%, peak 7%. - ThreadSky

ballotbox.scot • 29 days ago

Although I have concerns about much of this poll, it's a record-setting 7% share for Alba that is most egregious. With pollsters that *don't* have high-Alba house effects, the party has averaged 2.1% since 2021, peaking at 3%. Norstat, average 4%, peak 5%. FindOutNow, average 5.7%, peak 7%.

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ballotbox.scot•29 days ago

Crucially, margin of error at 3% is not 3% (i.e. suggesting support could be anywhere from 0-6%), it's 1% (so from 2-4%), which means FindOutNow are massively out of kilter. Norstat may also be high, but they always have been. No one else is finding growth. It's a skewed and skewing figure.

ballotbox.scot•29 days ago

Further, it's just not credible in context. Alba are leaderless at the moment; they were an Alex Salmond vehicle, and he is gone. The SNP are stabilising; if Alba didn't gain whilst the SNP are collapsing, why would they now? And Alba can't or won't even stand in by-elections in their best areas.

tam1314.bsky.social•25 days ago

Because almost every single independence supporter who stayed at home in 2024 UK elections, will have to vote for someone, or stay at home agin.

Swinney won’t get people out the house for both votes. SNP need a recruitment drive before people will trust them 100% again.

Indy 50%
SNP 30%

LWTG

felix-krull.bsky.social•24 days ago

I'm inclined to agree with where you're coming from here TB. The risk isn't people voting against the SNP, it's not voting at all.

SNP 1&2 doesn't work for Independence. It gives the party some security but doesn't advance the cause.

HR26 - SNP1 (unopposed) & an Indy list umbrella coalition.

craigeeez.bsky.social•29 days ago

SNP supporters that moved to Labour, that now want to move on from Labour but can’t go back to SNP?

ballotbox.scot•28 days ago

Not only is that completely implausible in and of itself, as Alba is an Independence Fundamentalist party, attracting primarily those voters, the vast majority of whom would never vote for a Pro-Union party, it's clearly untrue given Lab-Alba transfer flows at by-elections have been anaemic.

bellacaledonia.bsky.social•28 days ago

There's a possible explanation for that, and that is Alba are more popular without Salmond? Criticism of him is essentially forbidden and hagiography is rife

felix-krull.bsky.social•28 days ago

I don't take MS's position, but it needs considering whether the passing of AS created an opportunity for cooperation.

The main players in the ALBA drama have left the political stage. It's electing a new Leader. SNP1&2 can't work for Indy under D'Hondt, but it's known working collectively can.

macnabracha.bsky.social•26 days ago

Best to vote SNP/ Green then.

felix-krull.bsky.social•26 days ago

Unless you're a dedicated Independence supporter and consider Lorna Slater's remarks to Martin Geissler about it not being a red line if Labour wanted to offer them a coalition deal in HR26, that is.

bellacaledonia.bsky.social•28 days ago

It really depends on whether BBS's analysis is correct and Alba's figures are a wild outlier. If they are then there is very little to 'work collectively with'

felix-krull.bsky.social•28 days ago

I’d agree on both those points: possible outlier and/or time available. I don’t think it can be disputed if AS were still with us this conversation probably wouldn’t be happening, though. How these questions are resolved will likely rely heavily on how ALBA’s new leader comes out the blocks.

cdl92.bsky.social•29 days ago

Really good chance they split themselves into irrelevance during this leadership contest, a la Sheridan era SSP.

mikeinsdevon.bsky.social•29 days ago

Two decades on they've still never recovered

glendarroch.bsky.social•25 days ago

Split themselves into irrelevance? They would need to have had relevance in the first place. Even with the 'Titan' Salmond in charge they still lost their GE deposits, 2 for sitting MP's. Come on now.

mikeinsdevon.bsky.social•25 days ago

Fair point but I was thinking more how the SSP never recovered from their split.

glendarroch.bsky.social•29 days ago

They are like the monty python splitters, first ALBA, then SALVO. Very dark people.

instography.bsky.social•28 days ago

Every polling company understates true error margins, treating their (highly variable) polls as though they were all perfect random samples. At 50% it's not ±3% - you should probably at least double it. At 3%, I suspect all you have is error.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•29 days ago

Just in general FON seem to massively oversample smaller parties - there data was poor pre election and seems to be worse now. Across, as you rightly point out, nations as well

indyvoices.bsky.social•28 days ago

I'm wondering if you're looking at the non Turnout-adjusted figures? The ones I've calculated from the Tables show SNP on 27% in regional vote and Alba on 5.4% (excluding don't knows). Discrepancies may stem from not weighting on SP vote or Indyref (only GE 2024).

ballotbox.scot•28 days ago

I'm looking at how the poll has been reported by the commissioning outlet.

indyvoices.bsky.social•28 days ago

Badly, it would seem.

ballotbox.scot•28 days ago

They will have been given the headline figures by the pollster. It is also how it is reported on What Scotland Thinks. The fault is the pollster not the reporting.

indyvoices.bsky.social•28 days ago

And very frustrating that FON can't be arsed to either add the sample sizes, or provide % excluding don't know - which would take them about 10 minutes. It's as if they're being intentionally annoying.

andrewsharpe.bsky.social•28 days ago

FON claims to be in beta, only includes people 18 or older, and doesn't appear to geographically weight on 'regional' (ie Scottish) surveys. How representative are it's self-selecting respondees defined by visitors to a lottery site? How is this weighted?
https://findoutnow.co.uk/faq/#results-quality

indyvoices.bsky.social•28 days ago

I think if someone's commissioned a poll (I've commissioned 2 from FON) they should check the data and query issues like turnout filtering and weighting. Agree though that there should be clarity and consistency from pollster. I also noticed WST has published the non-turnout adjusted figures.

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