Perhaps Trump has genuinely been trying to give the appearance of choosing randomly when it comes to big policy decisions in order to maintain this unpredictable aura. 3/37 www.pbs.org/weta/washing... - ThreadSky

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kityates.bsky.social • 4 days ago

Perhaps Trump has genuinely been trying to give the appearance of choosing randomly when it comes to big policy decisions in order to maintain this unpredictable aura.

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https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/video/2025/03/trumps-unpredictable-policies-negatively-impact-global-economies

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kityates.bsky.social•4 days ago

And there is an argument which suggests his unpredictability might be a deliberate game theoretic strategy designed to keep his political opponents guessing.

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kityates.bsky.social•4 days ago

Serious practitioners of rock paper scissors (as opposed to squabbling siblings using the game to decide who gets to ride shotgun) understand that it is a game of psychology more than chance. If you throw the same shape every time, you get picked off easily by your opponent.

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kityates.bsky.social•4 days ago

Regularly alternating patterns also get spotted quickly and are easy to beat. Members of the World Rock Paper Scissors Society (yes, of course there is a society – why wouldn’t there be?) are masters in the art of exploiting predictability.

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kityates.bsky.social•4 days ago

The best strategy, if you can’t guess your opponent’s move, is to choose completely at random between the three different plays. Memorising a randomised list of papers, rocks and scissors to throw in a competitive game gives you the best chance of winning against a pro.

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kityates.bsky.social•4 days ago

As I write about in How to Expect the Unexpected, game theoreticians might refer to the practice of choosing probabilistically from among a range of strategies to avoid becoming predictable as a mixed strategy.

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https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Expect-Unexpected-Science-Predictions/dp/1529408695/ref=asc_df_1529408695

kityates.bsky.social•4 days ago

For hundreds of years, the Naskapi people of eastern Canada have been using a mixed strategy to help them choose where to hunt.

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