Excellent post from @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social on Con to LD switchers - we all need heuristics to make sense of complex results, but when simplifying sketches curdle into misleading stereotypes then they do more harm than good. A great corrective: jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/2019-conse... - ThreadSky

robfordmancs.bsky.social • 17 hours ago

Excellent post from @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social on Con to LD switchers - we all need heuristics to make sense of complex results, but when simplifying sketches curdle into misleading stereotypes then they do more harm than good. A great corrective: https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/2019-conservative-to-2024-lib-dem

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gullssinceaboy.bsky.social•17 hours ago

I read it that approx 40% of switchers in 2024 are pro EU. A high proportion of existing LibDem/Labour voters are pro EU, as are SNP & Green. In short at least 55% of voters are pro EU, prob closer to 60%. I’d take that as a signal of where to go. Tbh I’m pig sick of the Leaver tail wagging the dog!

gullssinceaboy.bsky.social•17 hours ago

If that means that 40% are unhappy then so be it, they can always move out of the UK. I know that’s not very mature of me!

robfordmancs.bsky.social•17 hours ago

I think in general we shld remember that switchers will tend to be atypical relative to both the party they left and the party they've joined. So Con to LD switchers (like the "hero voters" - Con to Lab switchers beloved of Starmer's LOTO) tend to be a bit more socially con/Brexity than core LDs...

robfordmancs.bsky.social•17 hours ago

...but a bit less socially Con/Brexity than core Tories. Same pattern applies to their demographics and attitudes on other issues. The main thing setting them apart (likely true of Con to Lab switchers I expect) is competence and trust - they thought Tories were incompetent and untrustworthy

robfordmancs.bsky.social•17 hours ago

One element this post leaves out though (a long post can't do everything!) is demographic change - people joining local electorates because they're turning 18 or moving to a seat. In many of the seats the LDs won in 2024 the share of socially liberal/graduate/professional voters went up sharply

robfordmancs.bsky.social•17 hours ago

So while the people the LDs gained from Cons might be more socially conservative than the average LD voter I suspect the LDs also gained a lot of ground in these seats because the pool of voters who look and think like a typical LD voter was and is growing.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•17 hours ago

But in a sense that's just reinforcing James' core point - the dynamics of voter change are complicated, voters are complicated, simple narratives are prone to lead us astray....Do subscribe to his Substack, you'll learn a lot!

robfordmancs.bsky.social•17 hours ago

For more on the demographic change story, check out this 2023 report from me and some other smart folks - tl;dr - that spreading green stain in Home Counties on the attached map is where graduates are surging - many of those seats were Con 2019 and are LD now https://www.smf.co.uk/publications/degrees-of-separation/

robblackie.bsky.social•17 hours ago

Do we have any sense of how big a change that was?

Eg 5% of the electorate?

robfordmancs.bsky.social•16 hours ago

The mean rise in share of graduates in the local population of Con to LD seats from 2011 to 2021 was 6%. Here's what it looked like in the top seats (left most column). Middle column is LD vote share change, right column is Con vote drop.

thepig993.bsky.social•16 hours ago

I think also a lot of the socially liberal remainer stereotypes had already left in 2019 (or 2017!), it just wasn’t at all discussed because the Tories won easily

robfordmancs.bsky.social•16 hours ago

Yes, this is true - discussed further down in the thread (and in our 2019 election book). One way of thinking about many of the LDs 2024 wins is that consolidating a growing socially liberal/Remainer electorate made them competitive, Brexity/socially con switchers put them over the top

davidheadviews.bsky.social•17 hours ago

Why can't Conservative voters become Liberal?

grippo77.bsky.social•16 hours ago

Have I taken James' piece correctly in saying that Con to LD switchers are trivial relative to Con to Rfm switchers?

If so does that mean that most 2019 and 2024 Con voters are still v right wing and badenoch is... right to be chasing rfm votes?

snellarthur.bsky.social•15 hours ago

Excellent piece. The imagery is (sadly) one of the more accurate bits of it.

randompixel.bsky.social•14 hours ago

oof 🫣

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