where will Russia attack? - ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

jeremymorris.bsky.social • 2 days ago

where will Russia attack?

Europe must ready itself to be able to defeat (not just defend against) a Russian attack within three-to-five years.

Yet, if Europeans use their ‘Big Bang’ in defence funding to simply pump more money into fulfilling current force plans based on legacy platforms they will likely fail.

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yakopov.me•2 days ago

Looking at America now, Russia is much better off waiting for similar forces to come to power in major Euro countries, and assisting that.

But ooutsidr of that the obvious target are of course the Baltics. If Russia somehow manages to take Odesa, it will also certainly annex Transnistria.

jeremymorris.bsky.social•2 days ago

How would they take Odesa? Realistically? With what current forces (or even forces in 3-4 years) would they attack Baltics, given that all Scandinavian countries would defend Baltics irrespective of NATO? (of course this is not directed at you, but the 'experts', who can of course never answer it)

drkevorko.bsky.social•2 days ago

Europe must be ready to adequately deter and contain Russia.

The rest is hysterics.

jeremymorris.bsky.social•2 days ago

I agree. But 90% seems to be hysterics detached from reality. Like, I've supervised students who are now defence establishment. None of them say that Baltics could be realistic target of Ru.

yakopov.me•2 days ago

I agree, there is no rational argument for that! Like, none at all! But a lot of people were saying that about Ukraine either, and Russia itself was reluctant to engage openly for a long time - yet it still happened.

yakopov.me•2 days ago

In regards to the Baltics, "a land bridge to Kaliningrad" can easily become the same obsession as one to Crimea. Add to that the desire to punish them for their support for UA, and a quite possible withdrawal of the US troops from Europe.

cerianbond.bsky.social•2 days ago

I think that's complacent, in view of the fact that Putin is likely to see himself as victorious in Ukraine if Trump gives him the kind of deal seemingly under discussion. There are significant Russian-speaking minorities in eastern Estonia & Latvia. 1/n

cerianbond.bsky.social•2 days ago

Whether they want to be part of Russia or not (& most probably don't) Putin will claim that they need to be liberated from Nazis. Will NATO 'launch WW3', as Trump would see it, to push RU forces out of EE & LV? RU could probably penetrate quite a long way vs 4200 full time EE troops + 2500 NATO. 2/n

drkevorko.bsky.social•2 days ago

That will now depend on maintaining deterrence by compensating for the US' possible/probable withdrawal from Europe... The Baltics are, after all, a weak point.

jeremymorris.bsky.social•2 days ago

Agree, but ok, but how are they more of a weak point now than before? Given massively depleted assaults capacity of Ru - even in five years time, after their economy implodes. What I've heard so far is infantile arguments.

gregory.levonian.net•2 days ago

This is all bullshit. Russia has ZERO interest in attacking Europe, it didn’t even want to attack Ukraine, it tried for 30 years to avoid war, in the months leading up to the war it fervently tried to negotiate its way out of attacking. Russia is Europe’s natural partner.

greygosling.bsky.social•2 days ago

A bad deal that forces an end to martial law & doesn't give any guarantees will likely see withspread exodus of Ukrainian citizens including soldiers and young men likely to be called up. That's how Ru can take Odesa in 3-4 years.

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