In contrast to modest headline growth, GDP per capita shrank once again. Worryingly, we’ve now only seen four quarters of per capita growth in the past three years of data (going back to the start of 2022). - ThreadSky

simonpittaway.bsky.social • 21 days ago

In contrast to modest headline growth, GDP per capita shrank once again.

Worryingly, we’ve now only seen four quarters of per capita growth in the past three years of data (going back to the start of 2022).

Comments

simonpittaway.bsky.social•21 days ago

Our shocking record of per capita growth means that we’re now halfway through the 2020s and GDP per capita is lower than when the decade started. By my calculations, that hasn’t happened in any decade since the 1920s!

simonpittaway.bsky.social•21 days ago

The UK isn’t alone in its recent struggles – Canada and Germany have seen GDP per capita fall by slightly more over the past five years. But if the UK had managed even the average recovery of other G7 economies, annual GDP per capita would be £450 higher today.

simonpittaway.bsky.social•21 days ago

Digging into the UK data, what drove the growth slowdown in 2024?

Most of the slowdown came from services, which contributed 1.3ppts to total growth in H1 and just 0.1ppts in H2. But note that the *level* of activity remains weakest in the production sector.

simonpittaway.bsky.social•21 days ago

Within services, most subsectors slowed. But the most consequential slowdowns were in info & comms, admin services and transport. These three sectors were big drivers of growth in Q1, but their contributions turned negative in H2.

simonpittaway.bsky.social•21 days ago

There were clear signs that consumer confidence weakened last year, with the GfK consumer confidence index remaining well below its long-run average and retail sales tailing off towards year-end.

simonpittaway.bsky.social•21 days ago

Indeed, a slowdown in households’ spending was one of the drivers of last year’s slowdown. But, as suggested by the key role of business-facing services above, it was far from the whole story (and the big ‘other’ bar for H2 suggests the picture could change in later releases).

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply