Once the route between Damascus and Tartus is cut, it will get really interesting. - ThreadSky

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mitakuye.bsky.social • 80 days ago

Once the route between Damascus and Tartus is cut, it will get really interesting.

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lukestables.bsky.social•80 days ago

Right, that can't be far off can it?

mitakuye.bsky.social•80 days ago

They need to take Homs, which will be a different proposition from Hama. Unless the SAA is really disintegrating.

mariekalevala.bsky.social•80 days ago

How will it be different? Curious

michaelbrennick.bsky.social•79 days ago

The theory is Assad still has a lot of soldiers and military equipment and they have to stop and fight at some time.

Im thinking that isn’t going to happen unless the Iranians show up in force.

mitakuye.bsky.social•79 days ago

No, it seems that it won't happen. Apparently they are coming to other agreements. No willingness to fight for a falling regime, it seems.

mariekalevala.bsky.social•79 days ago

*theory*

jesusjackson.bsky.social•80 days ago

You don’t think losing control of 2 of the 4 largest cities in the country in less than a week counts as disintegrating?

mitakuye.bsky.social•80 days ago

Sure. But it depends how many reserves they have further south and how much time they have to reorganize.
Maybe they will fall flat. I'm just saying don't count on it.

lukestables.bsky.social•80 days ago

I found this useful, no idea if any good though: "Nevertheless, none of this means that Assad’s fate is sealed. The regime still has pathways to survival. "

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/return-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bsyria%E2%80%99s-rebels-neither-unexpected-nor-final-213953

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