Using a political/policy lens on market moves is almost always a trap. The tape has been pretty disciplined in pricing in only relevant/tangible/probable impacts. TheS&P 500 is up 2%+ YTD and just 2% off a record high, at its 50-day average. Even in extraordinary times, most pullbacks are routine. - ThreadSky

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michaelsantoli.bsky.social • 4 days ago

Using a political/policy lens on market moves is almost always a trap. The tape has been pretty disciplined in pricing in only relevant/tangible/probable impacts. TheS&P 500 is up 2%+ YTD and just 2% off a record high, at its 50-day average. Even in extraordinary times, most pullbacks are routine.

Comments

efrog.bsky.social•4 days ago

cc @dow.bsky.social

paulsciorg.bsky.social•4 days ago

Your “close game” analogy is the right way to look at the current “vibes.” Another way is a whirlpool - top of it is wide and slow (rotation) until you go down and it narrows and speeds up. A bad/negative NVDA number we’ll be descending down the whirlpool; large, narrow losses (mag 7/chips).

aozorasf.bsky.social•4 days ago

Oh for goodness sakes. You are living in a fantasyland if you think that what the idiots in DC are doing isn’t going to cause a major economic downturn.

achrysoulakis.bsky.social•3 days ago

Eventually (when the whole "full faith and credit" statement becomes less valuable than the ink it's printed with).

But we've probably got at least a little bit of time before that happens. They're still setting the table.

rgoldson.bsky.social•2 days ago

Always appreciate your low to no drama approach.

revenus.bsky.social•4 days ago

Yea, too many "i told you sooo's", when this could just be a typical pullback. 1st year of presidential cycles are normally strong. Markets will likely do well during the tax extension conversation coming later in the year as well. Mid-term years though...

moonlightgraham22.bsky.social•4 days ago

If you think this is your average run of the mill change in administrations you need to wake the fuck up!

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