What do better hurricane track forecasts mean? In 1999, Major Hurricane Floyd threatened Florida. The forecast showed the storm remaining east of Florida, but given the large track forecast errors in 1999, a major hurricane landfall on the east coast of Florida was still possible - ThreadSky

vortexjeff.bsky.social • 1 day ago

What do better hurricane track forecasts mean? In 1999, Major Hurricane Floyd threatened Florida. The forecast showed the storm remaining east of Florida, but given the large track forecast errors in 1999, a major hurricane landfall on the east coast of Florida was still possible

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vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

Evacuations were ordered for much of eastern Florida, which then was the largest peacetime evacuation in United States history. The storm stayed east of Florida, causing minimal impacts there, but significant impacts occurred when the storm made landfall in North Carolina.

vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

When Hurricane Doran was forecast to take a similar path in 2019, evacuation orders were issued for many Florida barrier islands, but far fewer people were evacuated owing to improved track forecasts.

vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

Six years later, in 2005, Major Hurricane Rita threatened the Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicated that the storm would make landfall near Houston, and many residents there evacuated. The storm instead made landfall well east of Houston, near the TX/LA border.

vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

Rita is currently the largest peacetime evacuation in US history. Sustained winds and gusts in Houston remained below hurricane force and less than three inches of rain were recorded there, meaning that most of these evacuations were unnecessary, except for the barrier islands.

vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

A post-storm analysis revealed that between 90-118 deaths occurred during the evacuation of Houston and surrounding areas, owing to car accidents and from being stuck in traffic during excessive heat. The official death toll from Rita in the United States is 120 people.

vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

In 2020, Hurricane Laura was forecast to take a similar track to Rita, but landfall was correctly forecast to be near the TX/LA border. Houston was not evacuated.

kevinmatthews.bsky.social•1 day ago

Brilliant! Also…

kevinmatthews.bsky.social•1 day ago

First they came for foreign aid. Then they came for the Park Service. Then they came for NOAA…

See the pattern? It’s not about each of two dozen agencies, & counting. EVERYTHING is targeted. It’s about drowning government in the bathtub. Then taking over.

It is a #coup.

#AmericanFascism #selfcoup

biglepowski.bsky.social•1 day ago

I apologize Jeff, I misread the last part of your thread. Another sad day for American science.

biglepowski.bsky.social•1 day ago

So what’s the solution through the private sector, what group is financed, and who has more accurate weather data to better predict the tracking of storms then nws/noaa?

vortexjeff.bsky.social•1 day ago

NWS is the best.

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