The US polls tend to only look at popular vote, but the electoral college picks the President, not the popular vote, which makes their polls less accurate.
338 in Canada has called 2036 districts races over 18 elections and only 86 were not within their margin of error. They're pretty accurate.
The reason I worry about polls in general is that in 2016 and 2024, I think that many people were "shy" Trump voters and didn't report as such. Poilievre is so similar to him that I believe there are cases where the same thing happens. Not the fault of the polls but the data.
Maybe, But the same can be said for liberal voters, as many hated trudeau and some people are nervous to say they will vote liberal... I'm in a very liberal area and until Carney showed up people were nervous to admit they weren't upset with the Liberals.
Comments
338 in Canada has called 2036 districts races over 18 elections and only 86 were not within their margin of error. They're pretty accurate.