One thing that needs to be said is that the Biden regime is probably facing the most defiant Israeli government ever. The governments of Begin, Shamir, Sharon, Olmert, and even Netanyahu himself, in his earlier phases, would listen to a strong US message to stop the war. Not this time. 1/ - ThreadSky

yairwallach.bsky.social • 203 days ago

One thing that needs to be said is that the Biden regime is probably facing the most defiant Israeli government ever. The governments of Begin, Shamir, Sharon, Olmert, and even Netanyahu himself, in his earlier phases, would listen to a strong US message to stop the war. Not this time.
1/

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yairwallach.bsky.social•203 days ago

People make fun of Biden yelling at Netanyahu or hanging the phone on him. But it used to work - no Israeli PM wanted to get to that position - certainly not during war. Netanyahu doesn't care. So now Biden needs to exercise actual leverage - probably on an unprecedented manner.
2/

yairwallach.bsky.social•203 days ago

And that's much harder. We already saw unprecedented measures, namely the anti-settler sanctions, which are now threatening key Israeli cabinet ministers. I didn't think we'd see these so soon.
But that's not enough. Only military sanctions would work.
3/

yairwallach.bsky.social•203 days ago

And these are antithetical not only to Biden's strong pro-Israel disposition, but the entire modus operandi of US governments since the early 1980s. A major course shift.
This is no excuse: the US has enabled the destruction of the Gaza Strip and they bear responsibility for that.
4/

yairwallach.bsky.social•203 days ago

We're approaching a breaking point - either a deterioration towards a high intensity regional war, or an end to the Gaza war. It looks like a no-brainer, but I wouldn't place any bets.

5/5

finch4077.bsky.social•202 days ago

Yair, there are obviously demos from the hostages families so obviously not everyone supports Bibi. Do you know if/think the Security have a redline in a response ? Would they ever step in in anyway and go "Nope enough is enough." Whether in public or being closed doors ?

yairwallach.bsky.social•202 days ago

Behind close doors the security establishment wants to end the war and they blame Netanyahu for deliberately sabotaging the negotiations. There's a lot of pressure on them to come out and say it publicly.
But that's as much as they would do. They'll continue to obey his orders.

surcomplicated.bsky.social•203 days ago

The problem is, once we cut Bibi loose from our aid he probably decides to attack Lebanon *anyway*. In fact, by the looks of it, his reaction to a cutoff in aid and the harsher conditions it'll create will be to get more aggressive and also commit more war crimes.

Biden's trying to delay that.

surcomplicated.bsky.social•203 days ago

At this point, it seems more likely than not that Bibi is going to wipe out the entire US-Israel relationship for the remainder of his time in power, but (a) we want Bibi to eat most of the political costs of it in Israel, (b) we don't want Harris to eat any of it, (c) we want to delay disaster.

maggioranza.bsky.social•203 days ago

What is the mood like in Israel after the latest developments, especially airlines suspending flights, and countries warning against all travel to IL? In Lebanon it's a deep sense of foreboding disaster.
Are Bibists, Lapid-Gantz centrists, Haredi etc. fully behind regional war?

yairwallach.bsky.social•202 days ago

There is much foreboding, dark humour but also a sense of fatalism. Currently almost entirely focussed on the Iranian retaliation. The opposition politicians are AWOL. The liberal commentariat is dismayed but feels a bit like watching a slow train crush.

maggiekat.bsky.social•203 days ago

like our response to RWrs in the US political arena - we are one step behind in evolving our response to the reality we now face, because we were comfortable in our previous relationship and can't quite believe the other side changed the rules on us

hanoiski8.bsky.social•203 days ago

Bibi has a similar problem to Trump —-he’s a criminal sociopath.

joeinaustralia.bsky.social•203 days ago

One thing that would terrify Netanyahu: indicate that the US will accept the jurisdiction of the ICC.

It would have other positive effects as well.

pteridoid.bsky.social•203 days ago

We would never, unfortunately.

codyharrison.bsky.social•203 days ago

I read when Biden was VP, that he was more actively supportive of the Israeli gov then even was common then, he was always a true believer and now in his 80s he’s supposed to go back on that?

yairwallach.bsky.social•203 days ago

That's true. But he's also hated Netanyahu for a very long time. For example, as a VP he abruptly cut short a visit to Israel when a new settlement development was announced.

zeroisanumber.bsky.social•203 days ago

He was an early protege of Scoop Jackson and Jackson is probably one of the most influential pro-Israel politicians in the last 50 years.

Biden has courage, but I can't imagine him having the courage to change that much.

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