One of the big problems has been that there have long been two versions of the lab leak idea--one where a natural virus collected and stored accidentally leaked from the Wuhan lab (probably via infecting staff)and a second where China manufactured covid in a "plandemic", which is what people opposed
Even if it was a lab leak, there’s global government culpability in letting this get as bad as it did. We humans didn’t behave in each other’s best interests either.
It doesn't seem to contain any new evidence, but rather is news of what some intelligence personnel thought in 2020. Right, I maintain some probability mass on lab leak, but ultimately I think it was largely settled in the Rootclaim debate (summary in https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)
Two individuals made a $100k bet, presented their cases (and in the process went through the whole scientific literature, more or less) for mutually agreeable panel of expert judges. And upon listening to the arguments, judges (as well as I) were left fairly convinced of natural origin.
One more thing to note, quoted in summary: "Since 2021, experts have shifted pretty far in favor of zoonosis. They’ve been convinced by new work - the identification of early cases, the wet market surveys, the genetic analysis."
...notably, this evidence didn't exist in 2020 for those Germans.
So basically it leaked from an institue, that likelier than not was just researching it because you kinda always want to know as much as possible about any disease that may affect your people?
There's a difference between an accidental leak vs. intentionally ‚designing‘ and spreading the virus as were the conspiring claims.
The possibility of an unintentional leak of the virus used for researching treatments was discussed & it's not even the first time it happened (unfortunately).
Problems with security in the Wuhan Lab have been well known. The absence of evidence does not confirm an absence of guilt. That is why China’s failure to fully cooperate with release of data and inhibiting Chinese scientists is damning.
China promised the world community, after the SARS debacle, they would regulate and clean up those disgusting wet food markets. I recall sitting in a CDC video conference the video showed a vendor decapitating a Civit Cat on a tree stump/cutting board, cooking it in a wok, returning it to the stump
Apparently they could not agree so they voted, hence the very round % figures. Had one of the lab leakers been late from lunch it may have been 78-22…but it wasn’t to be. German engineering…🤣
How do they allocate a probability to such an event. I would love to see their reasoning. Especially when there is no biological evidence to support a lab leak as opposed massive evidence of the contrary. The lab leak is becoming just more popular, but certainly not more plausible.
How would people with 0 scientific education reach that conclusion outside of "vibes"? Did they consult scientists? Whom did they consult? What were the arguments? Gah!
Other than urging international labs to improve their security, what difference does it make to the experience we all went through? Ive never understood the argument that theres a difference between accidental release and release at the wet market in Wuhan.
All the scientific evidence points to a natural spillover in the Huanan market but I guess intelligence officers with no background in virology and no scientific studies to back their claims can think otherwise.
Intelligence officers clearly aren't trained and capable of gathering intelligence from the people and sources with the intelligence. That would make too much sense, so clearly that cannot be.
A virus ‘just happened’ to emanate from a city where one of the foremost virology labs happened to be located. In the whole world?! That is quite a coincidence.
Does that matter? If we’re merely talking about attribution. Whether it was built on stilts to serve locals or built as a fortress to fulfill some govt obligation.
Again. Just the statistical improbability of a worldwide virus starting out there.
Comments
You sure it wasn't 79 to 92%?
Or 2%?
I'm 96.127% sure those numbers are BS.
It only murdered so many because of how incredibly selfish and stupid the response was, especially here in America.
...notably, this evidence didn't exist in 2020 for those Germans.
The possibility of an unintentional leak of the virus used for researching treatments was discussed & it's not even the first time it happened (unfortunately).
Even people suggesting as plausible an *accidental* leak were drowned out.
Case in point:
https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/the-wuhan-lab-leak-hypothesis-is-a-conspiracy-theory-not-science-503b0d4de45b
Not sure where are you from but here in EU chance of unintentional leak mentioned even our minister of health & mainstream media:
https://lidovky.cz/domov/prymula-koronavirus-neni-umele-vytvoreny-unikl-ale-pravdepodobne-z-laboratore-v-cine.A201022_184946_ln_domov_lihem
Disgusting.
A virus ‘just happened’ to emanate from a city where one of the foremost virology labs happened to be located. In the whole world?! That is quite a coincidence.
Not a farming community.
Not a travel hub.
Again. Just the statistical improbability of a worldwide virus starting out there.
I could believe it given what its terrain looks like as well as its climate.
🤔