Market panic (NVDA down 7% pre-market?) on Deepseek-R1 news. This is really bizarre and a strange overreaction -- having *more powerful AI at less compute* will fuel demand for semiconductors and GPUs, not reduce them.
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I think it has more to do with what was accomplished on d variant GPUs, can’t think of any other time a set of export controls was demonstrated to be outright worthless bullshit
Does it use less compute though? I'm self-hosting the 8b instance and I get roughly the same tokens/second as other similar sized models, (admittedly not very scientific). It also requires a LOT more tokens to answer due to its 'thought' process, but it's much more coherent than similar size models
I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. I mean - if it's a really good model and it's open source, can't others just use the same innovations to improve their models? So it may be a hit on their egos in the short term, but a big boost in medium-to-long term.
Doesn't that imply that Nvidia's perceived value is actual value delivered per unit of GPU computation? But if cheaper commodity cards are good enough, they'd make less under current pricing and there can be more competition.
(I'm ill-informed on this and interested in high-density useful sources)
But yeah I also only believe in the EMH to the extent that I don't think I can usually profit off of market irrationality. I wouldn't assert there's any wisdom here.
You are assuming NVDA was priced based on expected demand. Maybe the panic is due to a perception of unviable business models of some of their customers.
Think it is just the investors' bubble of unrivaled potential in the hands of two or three US companies that got bust. Stock market value is mostly about what the other traders could plausibly expect the future to be, less about tangible current performance.
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(I'm ill-informed on this and interested in high-density useful sources)