Excellent essay by David Spiegelhalter in Nature on the uncertainty surrounding probability. Definitely food for thought for those of us who live and die by P-values, or have the Reverend Bayes oversee our research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-04096-5?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=4c5460d1fb-nature-briefing-daily-20241217&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b27a691814-4c5460d1fb-50147516

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