A few thoughts on where we stand after the opening night of Trump does Ukraine. The first glimpse of substance from Hegseth suggests huge concessions will be demanded from Kyiv with no sign of similar pressure on Moscow - rather the reverse, with Trump running hard after Putin. My conclusion? 1/7 - ThreadSky

lordrickettsp.bsky.social • 10 days ago

A few thoughts on where we stand after the opening night of Trump does Ukraine. The first glimpse of substance from Hegseth suggests huge concessions will be demanded from Kyiv with no sign of similar pressure on Moscow - rather the reverse, with Trump running hard after Putin. My conclusion? 1/7

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lordrickettsp.bsky.social•10 days ago

Putin may not feel under enough pressure to agree a ceasefire - then the war continues and Ukraine gradually loses. Or Putin grabs a deal leaving Ukraine weak, and comes back for more later. Either outcome is terrible for European security/NATO. Europeans have much to do to even things up. 2/7

lordrickettsp.bsky.social•10 days ago

To unpack that, here are five points on Hegseth’s comments in Brussels. 1. US supports a sovereign and independent Ukraine. Good. The only point of difference from Putin’s position I detected. But what is the US willing to do to make Ukraine’s sovereignty a reality? Answer: not much. 3/7

lordrickettsp.bsky.social•10 days ago

Second Hegseth point. It’s unrealistic that a ceasefire deal will return Ukraine to its 2014 borders. True, but he should have added that the final status of territory occupied by Russia must be left open. The absence of that condition was worrying and implies they haven’t thought this thru. 4/7

lordrickettsp.bsky.social•10 days ago

Third point. ‘The US is against 🇺🇦 joining NATO’. A longstanding US position, but never said so brutally by Biden. Hands an important card to Putin for free. The UK objective should be to ensure Ukraine continues to draw closer to NATO so as to keep the option of joining open for the longer term 5/7

lordrickettsp.bsky.social•10 days ago

Point four. Security guarantees must be provided by ‘capable European and non-European troops’. Without US involvement, the Ukrainians won’t find this very convincing. There will need to be a European military presence in country but I don’t see troops being deployed between 🇺🇦 and 🇷🇺 forces. 6/7

lordrickettsp.bsky.social•10 days ago

Fifth and last point on Hegseth. ‘Overwhelming share of lethal and non-lethal aid’ to be provided by Europe. That’s the wake-up call. US is setting the terms then walking away. There’s no escaping the need for big increase in UK defence spending now and close UK/EU defence industrial cooperation 7/7

jgbrowning.bsky.social•10 days ago

You failed to mention, "the war continues and Russia gradually loses."

denbelblack.bsky.social•10 days ago

Or the war continues and Ukraine finishes the other 18 refineries, russian oligarchs eventually have enough of putin's beligerence and window him.

robbo356.bsky.social•10 days ago

And when Putin gets what he wants, he’ll come back for more.

plastic1flowers.bsky.social•10 days ago

Now that the US and Russia have fully abandoned their obligations under the 1991 Minsk Accord that led to the disarmament of Ukraine, could Ukraine now consider rearming to curtail any future aggression from Russia?

vonhitchofen.bsky.social•10 days ago

Why should Kyiv make any concessions at all?

lenhampson.bsky.social•10 days ago

Of course there is the possibility that Zelensky will speak to Trump and tell him what a wonderful guy he is and how he admires him so much. The policy from the White House will then go into reverse. I wouldn't spend too much time analysing anything they do.

ziggysden.bsky.social•10 days ago

Ukraine has substantial deposits of rare earths. Majority of deposits in Russian held areas. US tech industry needs rare earths (China is other major source). US-Russia make deal so Putin keeps land he holds. Putin sells rare earths to US at knockdown price as quid pro quo for the deal.

frenshamrobin.bsky.social•10 days ago

That plus Trump gets to build hotels in Crimea

helenopinion.bsky.social•10 days ago

Putin can have fun extracting them from mines that will be under constant threat of partisan warfare.

patrocles34.bsky.social•10 days ago

Astute read on the #RareEarth part of the equation. I'd heard of an embargoed deal giving Trump credit for peace, and involving rare earths, but never before the knock-down prices angle. Good work!

edtrainsociety.bsky.social•10 days ago

A symptom of internecine battles btw Russian &/or Ukraine aligned oligarchs?

Eric explains the actual contours of the war in Ukraine, including:

- Identifying the oligarchs and their interests
- Exploring how the Kremlin inverts reality with disinformation about Ukraine

https://youtu.be/KoW4V6PFXz4?si=wfiwEqjfssJbF_Ik

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