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aaronstein1.bsky.social
President/CEO @fpri.bsky.social; Podcast w/ blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social; Recent Substacker; Author: US War Against ISIS. Views are all my own
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Split squadron from Lakenheath with tanker support (can be Euro) + 10th SF advisors to train Ukrainians alongside European brigades is the obvious solution for a US presence in Ukraine … there are solutions … reappropriate EU SAMP-T/Patrior deployed in country for air defense (use the TR model).

In touching off another round of Mercator debate, Trump has also rendered the whole subject moot. Whether or not the Mercator projection implicitly fosters imperialist attitudes doesn’t really matter when the president is explicitly fostering them himself. foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/14/t...

Europe during the Cold War was viewed as an amplifier of American power. This admin -- and really all GOP admins since W Bush -- do not view Europe that way. The culmination of this is a new mantra where EU members have to "burden share"to prove they once again can enhance US security.

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Wow

Grease the poles

My latest on Trump’s blast from the past and making what was once okd, new again — space based missile defense :: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

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Beat Boston… let’s go

The economics of Starship and SpaceX does at least make me question how one could approach a space based missile defense in ways that differ from all previous cost assumptions.

US is poised -- with the SDI 2.0 EO -- to bring warheads now in storage out for upload + Russia withdrawing from New Start (or it simply expiring). The arms control era is over.

Happening Wednesday, Jan. 29 - NATO’s Future: The Philadelphia Perspective with Rep. Brendan Boyle

And learned that one way to counter a torpedo is to turn into it, thereby decreasing the range to ensure it doesn’t have time to arm itself

CAATSA was originally conceived as a mechanism to block Trump from unilaterally lifting sanctions put in place to punish Russia for intervening to help his 1st prez campaign in 2016. Congress uses the same tool again to block Trump in 2025.

Spot on. Build two jets

The Republic of Turkey and Mar a Lago were founded at approximately the same time. No issue that the US and Turkey will grapple (Kurds in Syria) with under Trump is actually older than the club the US president owns and lives in

Just A+ level content

This has been a standard Turkish TP for 5 or so years (maybe a bit less cause dates are fuzzy). What’s different this time is: 1) SDF is very brittle and could collapse; 2) a messy Turkish invasion will make the US position untenable; 3) Trump track record will embolden Ankara

This was the pre-2014 policy

Why Manbij? What is Turkey's obsessions w/ the strategically dubious city? & why, amidst the collapse of Bashar, did Ankara turn its guns on the SDF enclave most exposed to SNA attack? And does it forebode broader Turkish military action east of the river. I have the history (p. 103-127) in my book