Profile avatar
adambonica.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | Pro-democracy
347 posts 17,437 followers 1,081 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
Posts 19 Comments 31

Harvard says no to Trump.

submitted 1 day ago • 77 comments

Why did American institutions fail so profoundly to hold a president accountable when other democracies routinely do? Far from normal democratic practice, it's an exceptional failure US elites and institutions. This thread and article digs into why the US system failed where others didn't: 🧵

submitted 1 day ago • 36 comments

The executive targets his opponents w/bogus investigations. His government disappears people w/out due process and vanishes them beyond reach. He usurps legislative power, controls public funds at will, & consolidates power. Loyalty is expected — or else. Authoritarianism isn’t coming. It’s here.

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

Our findings using CES data strongly affirm the post-election analysis and conclusions of @mikepod.bsky.social. Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.

submitted 5 days ago • 3 comments

Here's Part 2 of 3 from me, @adambonica.bsky.social, @rfunkfordham.bsky.social, & @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social. All the publicly available data suggests 2024 non-voters leaned Democratic and pro-Harris. data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-vo... 1/n

submitted 5 days ago • 31 comments

1/5 Trump's executive orders targeting law firms isn't random—it's a targeted attack on liberal law firms as part of a broader strategy of dismantling opposition. 🧵⬇️ on @msnbc.com oped with @mayasen.bsky.social examines why this attack threatens the legal profession, democracy, and the rule of law.

submitted 7 days ago • 10 comments

With Yoon removed from office today, by my count that makes 34 democratic leaders convicted since 2010. Only one—Trump—faced no real consequences. Trump's actions weren't uncommon. What was exceptional was how our institutions failed to hold him accountable.

submitted 11 days ago • 52 comments

As Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement tanks markets, remember: his billionaire supporters knew this was coming. They backed him anyway. They knowingly sacrificed our economic prosperity to protect their elaborate tax avoidance schemes and privileges—despite gaining 64.6% under Biden.

submitted 12 days ago • 4 comments

Following up on our voter file analysis, here are the partisan breakdowns of non-voters in swing vs. safe states: Swing states: D (7.3M) 43.7% | R 3.3M R (20%) Non-swing states: D 7.9M (35.1%) | R 4.4M (19.3%) Reg. Dems were a much larger share of non-voters in swing states.

submitted 13 days ago • 3 comments

Our literal conclusion is: “the debate isn't settled. The real test comes with the 2024 CCES data…” We set up a hypothesis that we plan to test (open to replication) when the complete data is available—the exact opposite of pre-committing to a conclusion. This is how science works.

submitted 13 days ago • 2 comments

We use 2024 party registration to calculate bounds (below) to show that Trump would have to sweep Rs plus 73% of independents to get just half of nonvoters We also benchmarked to 2020 & 2022 survey data (you don’t mind when Nate Cohn does this). We’re running it back w/ 2024 CCES upon release

submitted 13 days ago • 5 comments

1/🧵 "More voters help Republicans" is reshaping Dem strategy after 2024. We put this claim to the test with a deep dive into voter files and survey data. Results? Non-voters remain disproportionately Democratic while GOP simply turns out their base better.

submitted 13 days ago • 28 comments

Trump v. US is increasingly looking like a historically catastrophic Supreme Court ruling Dred Scott, Plessy, Lochner, Korematsu-level bad except on this one there may be no lever to with which to pull back

submitted 16 days ago • 37 comments

My new one @slate.com: "The Ultrarich Have Reshaped Presidential Elections. Here’s Where They’re Looking Next. Billionaire money could have even more of an impact on these races than it did on the 2024 election." slate.com/news-and-pol...

submitted 19 days ago • 25 comments

1/🧵 Here is my latest with a more detailed analysis of how judges across the ideological spectrum are ruling against the administration—upending the narrative that opposition is purely partisan. Notably, 2 of the 4 judges targeted by the GOP for impeachment are right-of-center.

submitted 25 days ago • 3 comments

Important piece on how universities fought Orbán and can fight Trump today www.chronicle.com/article/how-...

submitted 26 days ago • 17 comments

In the last week alone, more than 5000 people have signed up with @runforsomething.net to consider a run for office. We're up to over 32k new people in the pipeline since Election Day. That's more than in all of 2017-2018 combined.

submitted 28 days ago • 41 comments

LOL

submitted 28 days ago • 13 comments

Another way of saying this is that Trump’s claims are so extreme that even judges appointed by Republicans agree As we show in a forthcoming JOP paper, this is an important signal to higher courts about the undelying merits of the claims

submitted 28 days ago • 30 comments