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adamjkucharski.bsky.social
Epidemiologist/mathematician. Professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Author of The Rules of Contagion and The Perfect Bet. New book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty available to pre-order now: proof.kucharski.io
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Increasingly liking AI as a cooking copilot. Was out of Worcestershire sauce for grilled cheese earlier and LLM suggested doing equal parts soy sauce and balsamic vinegar with some Dijon instead 👌

This is a great thread, and one I wish we could get people to pay attention to. So much of science and government is COMPLEX and we have ignorant, incurious people now sitting at the top, smashing things merely for the joy of destruction.

Until end of tomorrow! 👇

Did not know where this was going, but I liked it. 👏 👏

This is a very excellent thread you should read to the end.

I think people both within science and outside science don’t fully appreciate the miracle that were the Covid-19 vaccines. How much courage it took to get the sequence out, how much work had already gone into figuring out the best viral antigen and how best to present it. 1/

Nobel Prize-winning author Kazuo Ishiguro has joined calls for the UK government to “reconsider and change course” when it comes to AI, warning that “no one believes the proposed ‘opt-out’ system will work”. 👇 #BookSky

Once upon a time, some villagers came across a large, ornate wooden box in the local woods. On the side of the box was a message: “Whatever money you put in this box will, in future, grow to become 2.5 times larger.” 1/

Really important and moving account of state failure in this weekend's @financialtimes.com that is free to read for all here:

While researching The Perfect Bet, I read about poker players who could cut carrots by throwing cards. So thought I'd investigate myself (although I only got to the toddler level of put-a-dent-in-it when it came to actual ability to cut vegetables...)

“We were deeply puzzled but aware that we had found something unexpectedly important.” My long-read in The Times on the discovery of the tomb of Pharaoh Thutmose II Crawling through the dark — how the tomb of Thutmose II was found www.thetimes.com/article/7eb3... #history #ancientegypt

Unfortunately, I think years of dogmatic attitudes in some corners of science along the lines of ‘RCT is the only trustworthy form of evidence’ etc. have helped make space for flawed arguments like the below: www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...

Proud to work in this organization that puts unwavering support of its communities, open, independent science and scientific integrity front and center

If you're in the UK, @waterstones.bsky.social are offering 25% off my new book when you pre-order between now and the end of day on Monday. Use the pre-order code PREORDER25 at checkout to claim your discount: www.waterstones.com/book/proof/a...

Out in @naturehumbehav.bsky.social Can people tell true from false news? Yes! Our meta-analysis shows that people rate true news as more accurate than false news (d = 1.12) and were better at spotting false news than at recognizing true news (d = 0.32). www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Throwback (literally) to when my first book was released 9 years ago this week:

advancing a genuinely held view that affronts prevailing sentiment in a given online forum is a wild and illuminating experience. if you have one you’re keeping quiet, and have a thick skin, i recommend giving it a try sometime. just make sure you’re well-stocked for both time and patience first.

I’d like to think I’m the first person to get into a flame war with VPOTUS from the swimming pool of Woburn Center Parcs at half-term.

PhD position (London, UK) Understanding and predicting behavioural drivers of epidemic dynamics with @marisamiraldo.bsky.social @adamjkucharski.bsky.social Peter White, Katy Turner at LSHTM More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2274

The PMF that you get when you discretise a continuous distribution with and without accounting for interval censoring of the primary event is not the same. Double censoring = both primary and secondary events that make up a distribution are censored

Lucid takedown of a "zombie statistic" claiming that immunity against SARS-CoV-2 wanes rapidly, by @adamjkucharski.bsky.social Immunity persists just like vs many other viruses, but the viruses keep evolving to escape. 👉🏻mRNA vaccines are highly effective. kucharski.substack.com/p/a-zombie-s...

Mad that this worked

Congratulations to @rachaelpung.bsky.social for being awarded the @lshtm.bsky.social Bradford Hill Prize, given annually to an outstanding research student completing a doctoral thesis on methodological research in epidemiology/biostatistics!

The new epidist release just dropped which includes support for the marginal model as well as lots of other goodies epidist.epinowcast.org/news/index.h... TLDRP: its 20-lots faster depending on number of stratifications in the data and not approximate.

The more I’ve dug into certain COVID conspiracy theories, the more I’ve realised that some of them are being inadvertently fuelled by perhaps well-meaning but flawed ideas about covid immunity in wider coverage. New post: kucharski.substack.com/p/a-zombie-s...

New research from Costello, Pennycook, and Rand. Can conversations with AI help reduce belief in conspiracy theories? Quite possibly. What’s the mechanism? Evidence production. Let me explain my little-t theory about how this might work.

Another great post from @adamjkucharski.bsky.social , but the most important words in it are "...just like they do for other infections." kucharski.substack.com/p/a-zombie-s...

I have insomnia a lot lately so may as well share what’s literally keeping me up at night. It’s a long list but tonight it’s flu. Yes, H5N1, but also seasonal flu. Firing federal scientists brings a flu-filled future. Have you ever wondered how flu vaccine strains are chosen?

New @nature.com How #AI can play a pivotal role in future pandemic preparedness and mitigation, with caveats nature.com/articles/s41... a privilege to join this global collaborative effort led by Moritz Kraemer and Samir Bhatt