adamshap.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Evaluating US monetary policy over the last 150 years, it is only in the last 30 years where there was a uniform and improved performance. from Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters drive.google.com/file/d/1iLkD...

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Evaluating US monetary policy over the last 150 years, it is only in the last 30 years where there was a uniform and improved performance. from Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters drive.google.com/file/d/1iLkD...

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you

submitted 103 days ago • 19 comments

Demand-driven inflation tends to decline when the Fed shows a high commitment to disinflation, as identified by Romer and Romer (2024). Supply shocks in the late 70s kept supply-driven inflation elevated. Demand-driven inflation declined after the high-commitment 1981 episode began.

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

All else equal, Medicare patients receive more healthcare services than Medicaid patients www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

All else equal, Medicare patients receive more healthcare services than Medicaid patients www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Demand-driven inflation tends to decline when the Fed shows a high commitment to disinflation, as identified by Romer and Romer (2024). Supply shocks in the late 70s kept supply-driven inflation elevated. Demand-driven inflation declined after the high-commitment 1981 episode began.

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

“The recent stagnation of the college wage premium primarily reflects demand factors, specifically a slowdown in the pace of skill biased technological change.” A recent paper by Leila Bengali, Rob Valletta, and Cindy Zhao www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

“The recent stagnation of the college wage premium primarily reflects demand factors, specifically a slowdown in the pace of skill biased technological change.” A recent paper by Leila Bengali, Rob Valletta, and Cindy Zhao www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

The Federal Reserve was able to reduce inflation by slowing demand www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

The Federal Reserve was able to reduce inflation by slowing demand www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

The SF Fed economic news sentiment index has been declining (becoming more pessimistic) since hitting a 7-year high on November 13 www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

The SF Fed economic news sentiment index has been declining (becoming more pessimistic) since hitting a 7-year high on November 13 www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

From my colleague Dan Wilson’s weather-adjusted employment model: Adverse weather held down payroll employment in January by around 80-90 thousand jobs. www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

From my colleague Dan Wilson’s weather-adjusted employment model: Adverse weather held down payroll employment in January by around 80-90 thousand jobs. www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

UMICH: "Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases." Long-run expectations also ticked up. www.sca.isr.umich.edu #NumbersDay

submitted 19 days ago • 2 comments

Some empirical evidence that monetary policy tightening works through the demand channel www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

SF Fed research shows why central bankers could be much warier of new supply shocks: Even after a successful disinflation, there is "a thick tail in longer-term inflation expectations ... and an increased sensitivity to short-term inflation expectations." www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Revisions are going to make tomorrow's jobs report confusing at best, and fertile ground for misinformation at worst. But they're an example of the system working -- and an illustration of why a robust federal statistical system is so important. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/b... #EconSky #NumbersDay

submitted 20 days ago • 5 comments

A new Economic Letter with Rami Najjar We apply the Romers' "attempted disinflation" dates to the supply & demand inflation series. We also look at the impact of high frequency identified monetary policy shocks. Takeway: Monetary policy tightening acts to reduce the demand component of inflation

submitted 23 days ago • 1 comment

Some empirical evidence that monetary policy tightening works through the demand channel www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

Monetary policy tightening during high supply-driven inflation tends to exacerbate financial stress (left panel): www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

A new Economic Letter with Rami Najjar We apply the Romers' "attempted disinflation" dates to the supply & demand inflation series. We also look at the impact of high frequency identified monetary policy shocks. Takeway: Monetary policy tightening acts to reduce the demand component of inflation

submitted 23 days ago • 1 comment

Interesting paper by L’Hullier and Phelan forthcoming in IJCB, arguing that “Firms can credibly justify a price increase due to a rise in costs, whereas it is harder to do so when demand increases.” www.ijcb.org/journal/huil...

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

The SF Fed has updated the supply-and demand-driven inflation series, along with the BEA’s December 2024 PCE release The takeaway from the latest data is that there has been some recent pickup in demand-driven inflation www.frbsf.org/research-and... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

The SF Fed has updated the supply-and demand-driven inflation series, along with the BEA’s December 2024 PCE release The takeaway from the latest data is that there has been some recent pickup in demand-driven inflation www.frbsf.org/research-and... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

A write up in Bloomberg about our recent SF Fed Economic Letter How Effective Were Fed Rate Hikes in Slowing US Housing? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

submitted 34 days ago • 5 comments

For those wondering how the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target came about www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 40 days ago • 1 comment

The San Francisco Fed has revamped “FedViews” In this issue, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau gives his insights about the labor market and the U.S. economy www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

The San Francisco Fed has revamped “FedViews” In this issue, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau gives his insights about the labor market and the U.S. economy www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

For those wondering how the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target came about www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 40 days ago • 1 comment

A write up in Bloomberg about our recent SF Fed Economic Letter How Effective Were Fed Rate Hikes in Slowing US Housing? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

I'm delighted to share the final version of our paper "The Earnings and Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians", now out via @qjeharvard.bsky.social (May issue). You may recall its earlier title, "Who Values Human Capitalists' Human Capital?" and the lively debate it spurred on the other site. 1/8

submitted 43 days ago • 1 comment

The San Francisco Fed's Daily News Sentiment Index hit a 7-year high (meaning positive news sentiment) on November 13, 2024. It has since retreated, but remains at historically high levels. www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 44 days ago • 0 comments

Interesting paper on crypto currencies. Budish finds that they lack the economies of scale on “trust” (that transactions are secure and reliable) that central bank currencies have.

submitted 45 days ago • 0 comments

The SF Fed has a new data indicators page: Regional Indicators for Labor Markets and Prices. This page provides data on labor market conditions, prices, and earnings across US states. Thanks to economists Leila Bengali and Genya Duzhak for setting this up. www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 49 days ago • 1 comment

New blog post decomposing movements in Core PCE inflation through 2024Q4 using the St Louis Fed DSGE model. Model attributes most of the 2021-22 surge to demand* factors, but supply* has gained importance lately. *see post for disclaimer on language www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

submitted 51 days ago • 0 comments

The SF Fed has a new data indicators page: Regional Indicators for Labor Markets and Prices. This page provides data on labor market conditions, prices, and earnings across US states. Thanks to economists Leila Bengali and Genya Duzhak for setting this up. www.frbsf.org/research-and...

submitted 49 days ago • 1 comment

What caused the housing inventory crunch during the pandemic? Our Economic Letter shows that it was caused by a surge in housing demand

submitted 51 days ago • 1 comment

What caused the housing inventory crunch during the pandemic? Our Economic Letter shows that it was caused by a surge in housing demand

submitted 51 days ago • 1 comment

Is this ever the correct spelling for Darth Vader?

submitted 51 days ago • 2 comments

Private health insurers have approximately the same claim denial rate as Medicare, and much lower denial rate than Medicaid drive.google.com/file/d/1N1YX...

submitted 54 days ago • 0 comments

Just a reminder that economic expansions don’t die of old age www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments