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amitchell4.bsky.social
Comms for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social. The Union Forever.
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Mission accomplished

Mission accomplished

US intel shares ISW assessment that Putin isn't interested in an actual peace agreement: www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

New statement from the State Department following the Russia-US meeting in Riyadh. Looks like the meeting focused (unsurprisingly) on two tracks, that are tied to each other, namely normalization of Russia-US ties, and settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Reinforcing success, as it were

Multi-year effort

This admittedly does not make a lot of sense

NEW: Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. (🧵1/7)

MORE: Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. Ukraine's efforts to integrate drone operations with ground operations significantly differ from Russian efforts to centralize drone units. 🧵(1/6)

NEW: Hamas said that it will postpone the release of Israeli hostages on Feb. 10, which would be a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas likely seeks to retain leverage in part to pressure Israel and the US to move forward with the second phase of negotiations. (1/3) isw.pub/IranUpdate02...

Ukrainian drones are attacking Engels in Russia's Saratov Oblast. Russian air defenses activated in the area. Around 500km from the border with Ukraine.

The Telegraph reported that the military leaders have previously supported Khamenei’s policy against nuclear weapons but now feel that they are faced with an “existential threat” since US President Donald Trump entered office.⬇️ isw.pub/IranUpdate02...

NEW: Russia continues to leverage its partnerships with US adversaries, including North Korea, to offset the resource shortages constraining Russia's economy and war effort. (1/3) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar020925

Breaking: Hamas announces it is "delaying" the hostage release set for Saturday, February 15, due to alleged Israeli violations

This is the worst performance by an offensive line since the Russian VDV in 2022.

Josh Allen could have stopped this madness

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are already receiving 200,000 unmanned systems on the frontlines every month, First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine said. That's 10 times more than in the first quarter of 2024, when they were receiving approx. 20,000 drones per month. m.censor.net/ua/news/3534...

Very interesting given Russia’s labor shortage

(Yonhap) - Thousands of North Korean laborers sent to work in Russia last year, says South Korea's spy agency. en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2025...

NEW | Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion: Six Month Assessment, by ISW Russia Analyst Angelica Evans: isw.pub/KurskSixMonths Key Takeaways 🧵(1/7):

/1. Air-strike on the Russian underground bunker of the 35th Russian Brigade in Selidove. As stated by source associated with Ukrainian military aviation, the strike was carried out with the help of 2000lbs (~900kg) bombs. If so, this will be the first publicly known case. t.me/soniah_hub/9099

A thing from the past: this ambulance driving through Kharkiv region was funded by USAID. The brutal suspension of USAID's activities will affect millions of people in need worldwide.

Good timing

lol

North Korean troops have been removed from the battlefield in Russia's Kursk region since mid-January, according to a report in South Korean media citing the country's spy agency.

The United States is in serious trouble.

⚡️ North Korean troops seem to temporarily withdraw from one section of front in Kursk Oblast, military says. North Korean forces are taking respite from hostilities, presumably to treat the wounded, wait for reinforcements, and work on mistakes made during the fighting, according to Sky News.

NEW: Russian forces recently made further advances within Velyka Novosilka amid official Russian claims that Russia seized the entire town on Jan. 26. The seizure and clearing of Velyka Novosilka will likely present opportunities & a decision point to the Russian mil. command.🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar012625

NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia on the night of January 20 to 21 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity. (1/3) Details: isw.pub/UkrWar012125

The deal involving the 49 year lease and development of the port of Tartus with Russian Stroytransgaz has been cancelled by Syria. One step closer to kicking Russia completely out of Syria.

Russian milbloggers began claiming on December 6 that North Korean forces were participating in more significant combat operations. isw.pub/UkrWar011625

This is an excellent piece from Phillips O’Brien on Russian sabotage and other aspects of its hybrid operations in Europe. This form of strategic coercion is a method that the authoritarian learning community is sharing with each other across the globe. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

In today’s Russian papers: • “Pressure on Russia's economy from sanctions increased significantly.” • “There remains a danger of stagflation. It’s very difficult to exit that.” #ReadingRussia

NEW REPORT: The Kremlin is in the endgame of a decades-long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus, which will permanently augment Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical objectives against the United States and NATO. (🧵1/5)

This early 90s band Pond from Portland is super weird, super raw, and pretty damn good if you’re into that sort of thing. Big sound - maybe too big and fuzzy to make it in with the grunge scene.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) reportedly shelled US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions along the eastern frontline amid indications of a possible SNA offensive against the SDF. Latest on the Middle East: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...

One prisoner thought he was being sent to Russia for training, SBU says. They’re the first North Koreans Kyiv has acknowledged capturing alive. “This was not an easy task,” Zelensky says: Russian or NK forces usually execute the wounded to hide Pyongyang’s involvement against Ukraine wapo.st/3DSufpm

„Diary of a Dead North Korean Soldier Reveals Grisly Battlefield Tactics“

Ukrainian President Zelensky says forces captured two North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region of Russia, where Kyiv is battling to hold territory: cnn.it/4hboAJq

“Ukrainian troops first reported the large-scale arrival of North Korean troops on the battlefield in mid-December and Zelensky said this week that at least 4,000 have already been killed or wounded.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

The Return of Havana Syndrome. www.theatlantic.com/internationa... A new intelligence report raises questions about a possible mystery weapon. My latest.

🇷🇺Med Sea Flotilla🇷🇺 While this image (30cm resolution) is from xmas (25 Dec 2024), some on here will find this as an interesting data point Project 22010 Class Intelligence ship - Yantar was spotted ~4.7km SW of Tartus with what is likely a small supply vessel heading back to Tartus

The U.S. announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector and 183 oil tankers of its “shadow fleet.”   www.reuters.com/world/biden-...