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andyharless.bsky.social
datums scientist; economist; rhapsode; urban hiker; XCH, StellaCoin, pre08 NGDP trajectory maxi; pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas
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The great failure of Bidenomics was that it tried to do what was right for the country rather than what was good for the Democrats politically. The lesson: never do what’s right for the country; always do what’s good for the Democrats politically.

The DOGE dividend will be like when somebody settles a class-action suit for a large class that you didn’t know you were a member of and they send you a check for $0.15 that isn’t worth the trouble of adding to your deposit slip even if you were already going to the bank to make a deposit.

If the month Donald Trump took office for the second time turns out to have been a business cycle peak, I don't think history will regard that as a coincidence. bsky.app/profile/carl...

Chamberlain sold Czechoslovakia out in order to buy time to belatedly build an armoury to fight fascism. Trump is selling Ukraine out because he likes fascism. These are really not the same thing.

Ukraine started the war by choosing a yellow and blue flag instead of a plain white one.

I don't believe Trump and Musk are part of a Chinese plot to destroy the US, but every time I update my priors based on new information, the probability goes up.

Tell your 9-years-ago self that Musk and Bannon are having a fight. They won't be shocked until you tell them which side you're on.

LLMs hallucinate, but so do people. When people do it, it’s called bullshit. LLMs can’t be trusted not to do that, but neither can most people.

If Russia and a third party (the US, or putative representatives thereof) make an agreement—to which Ukraine itself is not directly a party—regarding the future of Ukraine, then anyone who participates in the enforcement of that agreement is effectively intervening on behalf of Russia.

I haven't heard of one example of *actual* fraud/waste/abuse uncovered by DOGE. No doubt there are some—but too minor to warrant my attention. Meanwhile bullshit, misunderstanding, politically motivated violations of the separation of powers, downright cruelty, and general recklessness are constant.

You're offering me 38.5 times cyclically adjusted earnings, with the world in chaos? OK, Mr. Market, you've got a deal!

Elon Musk has dramatically altered my class consciousness. I used to be middle class, ambidextrous bourgeois/proletariat, depending on the particular dispute; work for a living but acquire human capital to enhance my work and interests in physical capital to support my retirement. 1/

After each news source reports, "Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed," the congregation will respond by saying, "Jesus H. Christ!"

I’m thinking about the scene in “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” where they bring in the letters.

At some point in Trump’s term, possibly soon (and we can’t rule out that it’s already starting) but possibly not, there will be a recession that will bring down the inflation rate, so I guess I like bonds despite Trump’s aggressive attacks on the aggressive supply curve.

What Congressional Democrats need to do, I think: 1. Recognize that stopping this autogolpe is far more important than any of the day-to-day political issues they might be concerned with. 2. Try to convince a few of their Republican colleagues of that.

It isn’t the 1% vs the 99% any more. It’s the 1 basis point vs the 9999 basis points.

William James could almost hear the bronze Negroes breathe

A problem with starter packs is that they end up becoming finisher packs. You end up following a lot of people with very narrow ranges of interest, intellectual black holes in the vastness of space. There's much more variety in my Threads feed than on Bluesky, and it's mostly interesting variety.

I have the afternoon off because of DOGE. Workplace closed early due to weather conditions. Under the old regime l wouldn’t even have noticed. But I can’t work now: it’s against the rules; all telework agreements have been canceled.

Apparently I misinterpreted “I don’t want to be a dictator except on day 1.” I thought he meant “I will be dictator on day 1, and after that there won’t be a dictator,” but he meant, “I will be dictator on day 1, and after that I’ll pass the role to Elon.”

If you want to get people to start using crypto, publicly hacking the institution at the core of the world’s current payments system seems like a good way to do it. Doesn’t seem to be working yet, but give it time.

New Exclusive building on Wired's reporting: Musk operatives have already pushed live to production extensive code changes to the Treasury Department payment system which makes 95% of fed govs payments. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/musk-...

Threads refused to format this correctly. (The lines with calculations should be set off with initial spaces to emphasize the sixes.) Let's see if it works on BlueSky. M = 13 A = 1 13 - 1 = 6 + 6 G = 7 A = 1 7 - 1 = 6 ...in case you see someone with that mark on their forehead

To UK, France, Germany, Japan, and the rest of the democracies: The restoration of US credibility will not begin any time soon. The PRC is as credible as ever, and Russia, Iran, and NK remain serious threats. IT'S ON YOU NOW. You need to find leadership among you and prepare to keep the world safe.

Which of the enemies of the Constitution of the United States of America seem like a greater threat to it right now, the foreign ones or the domestic ones?

There’s going to be a shortage of supervisors in the federal government because everyone suddenly wants to be in jobs that are covered by collective bargaining. People are switching to nonsupervisory jobs.