antonspisak.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

May I please remind everyone, in a very matter-of-fact way, that the Northern Ireland Protocol and its successor, the Windsor Framework, retained full jurisdiction of the ECJ over EU laws that apply in Northern Ireland. And this deal was negotiated by the Tories.

submitted 8 hours ago • 1 comment

This ambulance was gifted to Ukrainian female soldiers in Izium last November. Shortly after the handover from Slovak volunteers, it was targeted by the Russian drone strike. Several people lost their lives. Today it’s back in Bratislava — and not far from Fico’s office — as a reminder of the war.

submitted 8 hours ago • 1 comment

Nice chart in Martin Wolf's column today showing the inconvenient truth for the White House –– global trade has become more, not less, liberalised over the past two decades as almost all emerging economies substantially lowered their effective tariffs.

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

If Trump's threatened 50% tariff on China goes through, the US tariff on Chinese imports will exceed 100%. Which is a big deal. But it's also worth remembering the US already has tariffs of over 100% on some Chinese imports, including EVs. Introduced by, well, the Biden administration.

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

Trump: “The EU was formed to do damage to the United States in trade.” He says a zero-for-zero tariff deal on industrial goods, which VdL floated earlier, isn’t enough and wants to see more “energy” exported to the EU. There may be a landing zone for a deal, or there may not, who knows anything.

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

Even if you believed Trump's formula was the best way to decide the tariff rates: "The elasticity of import prices should be about one, not 0.25 ... Their mistake is that they base the elasticity on the response of retail prices to tariffs, as opposed to import prices." www.aei.org/economics/pr...

submitted 9 days ago • 3 comments

This will be worth reading

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

Dimon: “Today, it is clear [the rules-based system led by America in concert with our allies] needs serious reform and strengthening, not total destruction.” Also Dimon: “In this multipolar world, it will be every nation for itself.”

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

Like every other person on the internet, I've started a (free) Substack, where I'll write more regularly about the messy intersection of geopolitics, trade and the macroeconomy. The first post, from last week, looks (obviously) at Trump's tariffs and their implications. antonspisak.substack.com

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Well, Slovakia is really lucky to be inside the EU.

submitted 9 days ago • 5 comments

Rather than declaring globalisation dead, UK government ministers would do better to think about the second-order effects of Trump’s tariffs — cheap imports from SE Asia being diverted to the UK, which remains an open and sizeable market.

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

One of the best exhibitions I’ve seen in London in a long time — Brazilian modernism at the RA. Ends in two weeks. Make sure to visit if you like bold colours and summer vibes.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

I agree. Important to remember that the UK is much more dependent on trade for its prosperity (about 62% of UK GDP) and exposed to its shocks than both the US (only about a third of GDP is trade-related) and the EU (where trade between member states matters more than externally).

submitted 10 days ago • 2 comments

Looking forward to being on @bbcworldservice’s Weekend tomorrow morning with @AntonSpisak.bsky.social to discuss tariffs, geopolitics, doomer prepping going mainstream, a bit of arts and culture and some very cool stuff about monkeys… 6.30-8.30am BST www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p...

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Really strange perspective by No10. It could’ve been worse if the UK actually had a goods trade surplus with the US (it doesn’t). The size of the bilateral deficit was the only determinant in that bogus formula used by the White House. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

A new piece from me on Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs and what they mean for the global trading system – and also my first Substack post. I'll be writing more longform pieces from now on, so do consider subscribing if you're interested in future posts. open.substack.com/pub/antonspi...

submitted 11 days ago • 3 comments

I’ve messed this up. Please help.

submitted 12 days ago • 212 comments

submitted 13 days ago • 55 comments

Next steps in EU-US trade dispute: 📍EU trade commissioner to call counterparts tomorrow 📍EC to present retaliatory list re: metals tariffs on Monday - also an EU trade minister meeting on Monday 📍Vote on metals list on Tuesday 📍 US “reciprocal” tariffs come in force Wednesday

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

If anyone wants to commission me to write a Black Mirror episode – about an overly arrogant techno-populist using AI to fix a policy problem, and everything goes catastrophically wrong – I’m available.

submitted 13 days ago • 3 comments

Some reflections on how extraordinary the US dollar declines are today. Tariffs are supposed to strengthen the US dollar, not weaken it. But that is not what is happening here so far. 1/

submitted 13 days ago • 8 comments

Striking chart showing the disproportionate impact of Trump’s tariffs on SE Asia: Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand. The same countries that benefited from supply chains shifting out of China now stand to lose the most.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Also, it's got nothing to do with anything our government has done. It's a mathematical consequence of the mad formula they're using as we have a trade deficit. Other countries that sucked up (like Japan or Vietnam) got screwed by the formula.

submitted 13 days ago • 38 comments

We put tariffs on an uninhabited island full of penguins but not Russia. Very normal administration we have here.

submitted 13 days ago • 667 comments

This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +

submitted 13 days ago • 12 comments

1. I'm reluctant to pose as an overnight expert in international trade, but I do have a couple of thoughts about the official explanation from the White House that I think would be obvious to anyone who had even a rudimentary grasp of economics.

submitted 13 days ago • 19 comments

Astonishing stuff. Trump's tariff rates are totally made up. They bear no relation to the actual trade barriers US companies face in foreign markets.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

In summary: 1. Every country, including those where the US runs a goods trade surplus, has been hit with a 10% tariff. 2. Countries where the US has a deficit have been targeted using a totally arbitrary formula: US tariff = (US goods balance with X in 2024 / US goods imports from X in 2024) / 2

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Evercore analysts reckon the weighted average US tariff post April 2nd is a Smooth-Hawley-busting 29%.

submitted 13 days ago • 6 comments

Wow this is wild. James: "The Trump team didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."

submitted 13 days ago • 36 comments