arminschaefer.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

📣 Two new calls for postdoctoral researchers! We are seeking candidates with a doctorate in sociology, political science, or economics. Details and links below. Please share widely! 🧵 1/3

submitted 7 hours ago • 1 comment

Very happy to share our new article in JoP @thejop.bsky.social, where we explore how parties forge links with social groups (here: social classes) through different appeals and how citizens respond to such appeals. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

That's what we do: We read stuff and we learn things.

submitted 3 days ago • 7 comments

Die SPD-Spitze scheint fest entschlossen, nicht zu lernen.

submitted 4 days ago • 5 comments

We hear a lot about the "disregard for the will of the voter" from the AfD (and JD Vance). Some context from our research: We found that the tendency to overestimate how many others agree with your own views is strongest among AfD voters. Working paper: ideas.repec.org/p/jgu/wpaper...

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

Hier im Überblick das Wahlverhalten nach Alter und nach Tätigkeit anhand der Daten von @infratestdimap.bsky.social. Ohne die Über-60-Jährigen sähe es für Union und SPD noch finsterer aus:

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

Deutschland hat gewählt, und die AfD gilt als die große Siegerin. Wie lässt sich ihr Ergebnis einordnen, und welche geografischen Merkmale prägen ihre Unterstützung? @hudde.bsky.social und ich haben das AfD-Zweitstimmenergebnis in den 299 Bundestagswahlkreisen ausgewertet. Ein Thread. 🧵👇

submitted 4 days ago • 19 comments

The modern gender gap is alive & well in #Germany: women were more likely to support the parties on the left (SPD, Greens, and well, Left), less likely to support the Christian Democrats & Liberals, and massively less likely (17% vs 24%) to vote for the #farright #AfD #btw25

submitted 4 days ago • 9 comments

One thing seems certain about Germany's general election on Sunday: for the first time, the former "Volksparteien" (catch all parties) will receive less than 50% of the vote. The CDU/CSU and the SPD are particularly weak among younger voters, so this trend is likely to continue. (1/2)

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Spannend ist auch der Zusammenhang zwischen den AfD-Zugewinnen bei der letzten Europawahl und dem Anstieg der Wahlbeteiligung. Noch für die Bundestagswahl 2021 zeigt @arminschaefer.bsky.social, dass es der AfD kaum gelang, substanziell weitere Nichtwähler zu mobilisieren. (1/4) 👉 shorturl.at/rVXrR

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Lieferbar!

submitted 11 days ago • 5 comments

Der idealtypische Wähler ist gut informiert und handelt stets vernünftig – die Realität sieht anders aus. Der Politikwissenschaftler Kai Arzheimer erklärt, warum wir wem unsere Stimme geben.

submitted 13 days ago • 4 comments

Interessiert an politischer #Ungleichheit? In diesem neu erschienenen Beitrag zum "Handbuch Sozialstrukturanalyse" geben @leaelsaesser.bsky.social und ich einen Überblick über die Fachliteratur und diskutieren die Befunde. (1/2) link.springer.com/referencewor...

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

So hat euer Wahlkreis seit 1949 gewählt. Unsere interaktiven Karten zeigen Ergebnisse aller Bundestagswahlen in heutigen Wahlkreiszuschnitten. www.zeit.de/politik/deut...

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Fritz Scharpf wird morgen 90. Ohne ihn wäre ich nicht und nicht mehr in der Wissenschaft (for what it's worth)🩵Schöner Artikel (mit implizitem Plädoyer für Schwarz(insb. CSU)-Grün) www.ksta.de/politik/poli...

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

“America is on the cusp of competitive authoritarianism. The Trump administration has already begun to weaponize state institutions and deploy them against opponents.” A must-read from Steven Levitsky and @lucanway.bsky.social Quotes in 🧵 but read the piece www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

submitted 17 days ago • 4 comments

Die Ausgangslage vor der #bundestagswahl ist inzwischen recht klar: Wenn 2 der 3 kleineren Parteien an der 5-Prozent-Hürde scheitern, reicht es für eine schwarz-rote Regierung. Merz, Söder, Klingbeil und Pistorius werden sich auf eine Koalition verständigen können. (1/2)

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments

"But even Orbán might be taken aback – and somewhat envious – of the alacrity that Trump has shown since returning to power, attacking the foundations of democracy not with a chisel but a sledgehammer." 👇

submitted 20 days ago • 1 comment

We find that (1) education structures voting for GAL and TAN parties in Western Europe; (2) social structuration is as high as for classic social democratic parties in the 1950s; (3) education structures also Republicans and Democrats. Open access, and on our homepages.

submitted 21 days ago • 1 comment

Vote choice by birth cohort and gender in the 2024 European election in Germany: - Increased gender gaps among young voters for several parties. - AfD share more than twice as high among young men (21% vs. 10%). - 49% of young men voted for the right-leaning parties, but only 32% of young women.

submitted 21 days ago • 2 comments

How do voters navigate fragmenting party landscapes with parties behaving in an ever more strategic matter? In this short CUP book‬, we suggest that group identities mediate the link between social structure and ideological party blocks. 1/8

submitted 21 days ago • 1 comment

@liesbethooghe.bsky.social & Gary Marks measure the extent to which political parties on the contemporary socio-cultural divide are cleavaged. doi.org/10.1080/0140... Part of the forthcoming Special Issue "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies". #polisky #academicsky

submitted 22 days ago • 3 comments

Anti-pluralism is a term that repeatedly appears in the discussion about early warning signs of dem. backsliding. However, AP often remains un(der)theorized. In this paper I try to clarify what anti-pluralism is & why it is a useful marker for would-be autocratizers👇 doi.org/10.1007/s122...

submitted 23 days ago • 3 comments

Ich freue mich, dass ich mit @kathrinkuehn.bsky.social bei DLF Systemfragen über Ungleichheit, Demokratie und die Akademisierung von Politik sprechen durfte.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Look at that list. The end of political science research funding?

submitted 24 days ago • 3 comments

Mehr denn je nach dieser Woche innn.it/phoenix-muss...

submitted 26 days ago • 4 comments

New article out! 🥳 We study whether & how internal political efficacy contributes to unequal turnout among newly enfranchised citizens - open access with Politics & Governance. 🙏 for the great cooperation to @aleininger.bsky.social, @wahlforschung.thorstenfaas.de, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Armin Schäfer!

submitted 30 days ago • 1 comment

Please share / RT: Call for papers: Conference on "Representation, Democracy, and the Economic Backgrounds of Politicians" Paper proposals should be submitted by February 21, using this form: forms.gle/Stz7apkkHTgt... Please direct any questions to [email protected].

submitted 30 days ago • 2 comments

Are you interested in age or cohort or period effects? I have just updated my primer on the topic! Now with a new framing, a handy flow chart to determine which approach may be suitable, and a new empirical example. What do people in Germany think about mothers who work? osf.io/preprints/ps...

submitted 31 days ago • 1 comment

📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo

submitted 31 days ago • 13 comments

An LLM "creates textual claims, and then predicts the citations that might be associated with similar text. Obviously, this practice violates all norms of scholarly citation. At best, LLMs gesticulate toward the shoulders of giants." Bender, West, and I contributed to this pro/con piece in PNAS.

submitted 31 days ago • 13 comments

Daten aus der Repräsentativen Wahlstatistik zur EP-Wahl 2024 sind raus: bundeswahlleiterin.de/info/presse/... Daten zur AfD-Wahl zeigen: - "AfD nun am stärksten bei den jungen Leuten" bleibt falsch, weiterhin hügelförmiger Verlauf - große Geschlechterunterschiede werden bei den Jüngsten noch größer

submitted 33 days ago • 4 comments