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babakrowshan.bsky.social
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Michael Hartnett: Fund managers are max bearish on macro, not quite max bearish on the market. 'Peak fear' is not yet reflected in cash allocations, which currently stand at 4.8% of assets and would typically need to rise to 6%.

submitted 3 hours ago • 0 comments

Who will be right? 5 year consumer expectations of inflation 4.4% or the bond market at 2.4%? Mark Hulbert: 5 yr TIPS spread shows better correlation but only from 2002 (from 1978 to 2002 UofM survey was better predictor). Any ideas on what changed in early 2000s to account for the switch?

submitted 3 hours ago • 0 comments

For anyone with a time horizon beyond a few days/weeks, the question is how can the US stock market prosper when the US economy is forced to retrench (if not into a full blown Trump lead recession)?

submitted 21 hours ago • 1 comment

Putin can not afford to end the war because it would mean his own downfall: Putin doesn’t want peace because war keeps him untouchable. It allows him to avoid responsibility, crush opposition, and present himself not as a dictator – but as a “wartime leader.”

submitted 21 hours ago • 1 comment

Every time I listen to Oren Cass, I think 'He can't possibly be that stupid...' then the next time I'm unfortunate enough to be exposed to him, he proves me wrong. To Oren, ignorance in no obstacle. No economics degree? no problem! Just start a 'think tank' & call yourself 'chief economist'.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

From a 2011 interview with CNN Business Charlie Munger: "The last person I'd want to be president of the United States is Donald Trump"

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

DOGE is worse than a scam. The damage done to the IRS is projected to result in $500 BILLION of lost revenue for the US government - according to IRS & Treasury officials (WaPo Mar 22 2025).

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Bear market rallies can be deceptively long and attractive, seemingly giving the 'all clear' to re-enter the market. GS: "On average, they have lasted 44 days and the MSCI AC World return is 10% to 15%. Cyclicals outperform Defensives 83% of the time and by 4% on average."

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

This is the issue right here, despite the recent wobbliness, in general US equities are still priced richly, if not for perfection.

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Reminds me of the quote often attributed to Steinbeck: 'the American poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires'

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Given the cost structure of travel and leisure industry (fixed vs variable) even if this is a short lived, it will hit hard because it is going into high season. If it lasts longer (let's say a 5-10% sustained decline for the next 2-3 years) it will be devastating w/bleed thru to wider US economy.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

With all the insanity of Trump's tariffs, many other important news have been pushed aside, among them the bombshell whistleblower (Sara Wynn-Williams) claims on Facebook and Zuckerberg's subservience to China's Communist party:

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Media doing such a poor job that most don't know the US is a net exporter of fentanyl to Canada: Carney announces sweeping plan to crack down on crime, strengthen the border - Liberal leader says weak U.S. border measures allow guns, drugs to flow into Canada

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

BlackRock's Larry Fink says the US election 'really doesn't matter' for markets [Oct 21st 2024] h/t marychilds.bsky.social

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

PANTHEON MACRO: “Consumers have spiralled from anxious to petrified. The expectations index, which dropped to 47.2 — its lowest level since May 1980 — from 54.2, now is consistent with zero growth in households’ real expenditure in Q2.” via carlquintanilla.bsky.social

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Wait, so after everything... US Customs is not actually collecting tariffs due to 'a glitch'?

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

While we only have a few examples of explosive rallies, they are endemic to bear markets. N=5 (instances of days when Nasdaq > 9.5%) subsequent returns are poor. Similarly for S&P 500 N=2 with 1 mth -8%, 2 mths -10.2% & 3 mths -11.6% via Mark Hulbert

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments