Profile avatar
bcfremeau.bsky.social
College football possession efficiency, FEI ratings, and data visualization enthusiast. Post an interesting chart, I'm probably going to like it (even if I don't *like* it). Post a college football dataviz, hello new best friend. https://www.bcftoys.com
189 posts 3,817 followers 291 following
Prolific Poster
Conversation Starter
Posts 32 Comments 18

FBS teams outscore FCS opponents by an average of almost 30 points more per game than in games against other FBS opponents.

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

Remember when Usain Bolt obliterated the 100m world record by .11 seconds? Multiply that by 211 and you get the equivalent of Bolt outpacing the WR by 23.2 seconds over the course of 13.1 miles (21.1 kilometers). The new half marathon WR obliterated the previous one by more than twice that much.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

FBS teams punted on 37.6% of non-garbage offensive drives in 2024, the lowest percentage of drives resulting in a punt over the last 18 seasons.

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Dishonest charts are coming from all directions, and they're only going to hit harder. Unless we push back. So, an interactive guide: Defense Against Dishonest Charts flowingdata.com/projects/dis...

submitted 19 days ago • 32 comments

Updated the "Game Possessions" project page on my site, including reference tables with the fewest and most possessions in an FBS game since 2007: bcftoys.com/possessions plus this nugget: 2014: 45% of games had 28+ possessions 2024: 45% of games had fewer than 24 possessions

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Hadn’t thought much about the expanded playoff having an impact on pace of play in college football until Chip Kelly said on The Audible pod with @slmandel.bsky.social and @brucefeldmancfb.bsky.social that OSU deliberately huddled more this season to be better prepared to play 16 games.

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Average possessions per FBS vs FBS game have been steadily declining since "peak tempo" in 2014. 2024 games featured an average of 24.3 total game possessions, 1.8 possessions fewer than the 18-season average.

submitted 31 days ago • 2 comments

FEI is engineered to represent past results. FEI game projections are primarily a calibration exercise, but it is nice when they do well. From Wk 14 (preseason projections phased out) on, projected winners won 88 of 123 w/ 11.7 mean abs error, 11-0 in CFP w/ 6.7 mean abs error.

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

Best (FEI) and Most Accomplished (FEI-based strength of record) National Champions since 2007

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

Biggest upsets since 2007 (based on delta between team end of year FEI ratings): 2024 NIU 16, Notre Dame 14 (-1.48 FEI delta) 2021 Bowling Green 14, Minnesota 10 (-1.37) 2017 Syracuse 27, Clemson 24 (-1.25) 2021 Kansas 57, Texas 56 (-1.23) 2011 UAB 34, Southern Miss 31 (-1.21)

submitted 41 days ago • 1 comment

Upsets of the year (retrodictive, based on delta between winning and losing team's end of year FEI ratings): NIU 16, Notre Dame 14 (-1.48 FEI delta) Michigan 13, Ohio State 10 (-1.05) Tulsa 46, UTSA 45 (-1.02) Georgia State 36, Vanderbilt 32 (-1.02) Stanford 38, Louisville 35 (-0.98)

submitted 41 days ago • 1 comment

3,089 ICHIRO HITS IN 11 SECONDS MY GOODNESS

submitted 41 days ago • 10 comments

Here's how the national champions since 2007 stack up according to F+ offense and defense ratings

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

Whether you favor the current playoff or a different model, I think it’s interesting to consider this chart and the different ways national championships were awarded historically.

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

2024 F+ Final Ratings (combining FEI and SP+): bcftoys.com/2024-fplus Ohio State went 6-1 vs F+ top 10 teams

submitted 42 days ago • 2 comments

FEI final ratings updated through CFP championship: bcftoys.com/2024-fei

submitted 42 days ago • 1 comment

The CFP national championship game is the seventh this season in which each team had only three non-garbage possessions each.

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

Chart: Best and Most Accomplished National Champions since 2007

submitted 49 days ago • 2 comments

OFEI (opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency) and DFEI (opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency) for all teams and national champions since 2007.

submitted 50 days ago • 1 comment

#1 in FEI has won the national championship in 7/17 seasons since 2007. #1 in DFEI has won the national championship in 10/17 seasons since 2007.

submitted 52 days ago • 1 comment

FEI ratings updated through Week 20 (CFP semifinals): bcftoys.com/2024-fei Ohio State #1 (and ND #2) in FEI, overall possession efficiency, and net drive success rate Notre Dame #1 (and OSU #2) in defensive FEI, defensive possession efficiency, and defensive success rate

submitted 52 days ago • 1 comment

New CFP game rating charts! No one plays to the same level (opponent-adjusted or unadjusted) every week of the season, but every semifinalist's A/A+ level has been very, very good.

submitted 55 days ago • 0 comments

Elevation above sea level, Northern Illinois vs. all other Mountain West schools

submitted 55 days ago • 7 comments

FEI ratings updated through Week 19 (including CFP second round and bowl games through 1/4): bcftoys.com/2024-fei CFP semifinal games will feature the top four defenses

submitted 58 days ago • 2 comments

Back-publishing weekly FEI ratings is definitely on the offseason to-do list. In the meantime, ratings as of Selection Sunday since 2007 are posted here: bcftoys.com/2024-cfp

submitted 59 days ago • 0 comments

CFP Quarterfinal FEI Game Splits (non-garbage scoring margin contributions by Off / Def / ST): Penn State: +5.8 / +6.2 / +5.1 Texas: +3.7 / +2.8 / +1.4 Ohio State: +14.8 / +5.4 / +1.8 Notre Dame: -12.2 / +16.4 / +8.7

submitted 60 days ago • 2 comments

FEI number 1, 3, 4, and 5 advance to the semifinals. (2 lost to 1).

submitted 60 days ago • 1 comment

Notre Dame and Georgia weekly FEI ratings progressions heading into the Sugar Bowl (they've basically swapped positions over the course of the season) www.bcftoys.com/2024-wfei

submitted 61 days ago • 0 comments

The 12-team playoff is all about access… for superteams with mulligans.

submitted 62 days ago • 0 comments

Happy New Year! FEI ratings and team/game/possession data efficiency pages back to 2007 are all updated on the site. Home index page now includes direct links to 650+ pages of possession, drive, game, unit, and team information, with more to come: bcftoys.com

submitted 62 days ago • 0 comments

Before this year wraps, my favorite data visualization projects flowingdata.com/2024/12/30/b...

submitted 64 days ago • 1 comment

Notre Dame and Clemson had four common opponents this year (and ND vs Georgia in the CFP makes five). Indiana and Penn State had five common opponents. Conferences are just scheduling arrangements between independents.

submitted 64 days ago • 0 comments