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bernardchickey.bsky.social
Podcaster and newsletter writer about housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa. Free and paid versions here: https://open.substack.com/pub/thekaka?r=akd4&utm_medium=ios
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Oof

Some of the bits are falling off.

I’ve opened this up for full public reading, listening and sharing after subscribers gave it more than 100 likes. Thanks for their support in making this sort of journalism available for the public. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t happen otherwise.

The problem with a supply shock strategy to reduce (real) house prices and rents is that the main incentive to build new is still tax-free capital gains. No capital gains=no building. So no supply shock. Removing that incentive is the only way.

The big picture on housing - my take, 10 years after book: Generation Rent. Some policy wins but it’s still not good. Video below and also he where you get podcasts: economy made simple. youtu.be/S1ep5KcpMrY?...

I have never looked at this simple ratio before, but, wow! That completely unnecessary Orr-inspired housing market boost in 2021 was a real disaster.

Escalating. Newsday.com/matt

In today’s NZ Herald #nzpol

Wild West. My @smh @theage cartoon.

Mood

NEW PAPER Oil, shipping, tariffs: We are back in a world of cost shocks. Our AI/LLM analysis of 138,962 corporate earnings calls shows how economy-wide cost shocks let large firms raise prices & increase profits—triggering sellers' inflation. 🧵 Open access: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

If you wonder how the A.I. era will affect economic inequality, consider this detail, out this week: "Meta has been making stunning offers to [A.I.] researchers, in some cases promising compensation packages as high as $100 million." www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/t...

Oil prices are jumping again in response to the Israeli attack on Iran. Our recent paper shows who stands to benefit from any windfalls: The top 1%. Thread: bsky.app/profile/isab...

#nzpol Business NZ looks at the state of the economy through two measures – PMI (Performance of Manufacturing Index) and PSI (Performance of Services Index). If they score above 50 – the sectors are growing. Data today shows them at 47.5 and 44. A 🧵

Proper reckonomists are starting to recognise the risk of a slump back, which I have been flagging for months tbf. Why are they late to the party? Cos they don't understand that our economy is fuelled by credit - banks pumping $ into the economy via mortgages and business loans. Winter's coming.

We’re living in the Dairy Isle, though you’d be forgiven for thinking dairy products were some exclusive import. My Stuff #cartoon today #NZpol

In today’s Weekend Herald #nzpol #China #NATO

Childish. Newsday.com/matt

From January 7th 2021. Now apparently evergreen.

Looks like Aukus is goneburger.

We’re gutting ourselves not-so-slowly

Tactical fatalism.

Ruthanasia #honours2025 #nzpol www.nzherald.co.nz/the-listener...

Peace out. My cartoon in today's The Age and Sydney Morning Herald newspapers.

Warner Bros. Discovery to split into two media companies. https://www.wbd.com/news/warner-bros-discovery-separate-two-leading-media-companies

NZ Govt debt costs are spiralling back to the 1990s - we must punish the poor, stop building the stuff we need, suppress the pay of care workers and ECE staff, and dance to Haddaway. Incredible how much harm can be justified by using twisted gross figures instead of net.

The Contrarian

Seriously? Are we really going to have a military parade? At the cost of millions of dollars? While cutting aid the nation's poor? My latest from The Baltimore Sun #Trump #TrumpParade #cartoon #satire

6/8/2025- The Military Parade www.timesfreepress.com/news/2025/ju...

A cartoon about our government’s unconcern for our land and water. “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of a cancer cell”, so said Edward Abbey. My Stuff #cartoon today #NZpol #Climate #Water #Environment #RMA #FastTrack

To everyone who believes the National/ACT/ First view that Govt interest costs risk ‘spiralling out of control’ just like they were in the 1990s, so we need to ‘save for a rainy day,’ just print out this chart.Then give it to your friends and family. Then your MP.

Ah wait, I found another nail. Here's RBNZ's forecast employment growth from the monetary policy statement a *couple of weeks ago* (in blue). The recent jobs data, which usually tracks closely, is in pink. Is it perhaps possible that RBNZ's 'the economy returns to equilibrium' model is horsecrap?

Here’s the chart to project on the screen every time Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis talk abouy the dire things ‘we’ have to do because of ‘spiralling debt and interest costs.’

From the archive

Friday’s @thetimes.com cartoon. Just to remind you Thursday was already crazy before it went complete off the rails.

Wednesday’s @thetimes.com cartoon times.newsprints.co.uk/morten-morla...

This cartoon from last November said it all. #musk #elonmusk #trump #cartoon #satire