billadamsecon.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Americans responded (sharply!) to the Trump tariffs before they were even imposed. They imported extra stuff in December and January, rather than waiting and paying the higher prices that would occur when he was in office .

submitted 3 days ago • 13 comments

The expectation that there will be fewer jobs out there 6 months in the future just surged to its highest level in over a decade

submitted 6 days ago • 95 comments

ZEW Mannheim @zew.de is on the Sky now. Follow us and add us to your starter packs for economic analyses from and for Germany, Europe, and beyond! #EconSky

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

My current thinking on macro: DOGE cuts are likely a 250,000-500,000 cumulative drag (govt plus private sector) on payrolls over the next 3 to 6 months. Payrolls growth averaged ~200k per month in Q4 and ~170k per month in 2024, so headed toward a 125,000-150,000 monthly pace. 1/3

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Especially striking since the Dallas Fed survey polls' comments are usually pretty right-wing--there was lots of hope for a Trump win / Republican sweep in 2024.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Remarkably short interval between Egg Discourse and The Most Dangerous Game discourse

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

If any one here has suggestion on good follows for equity/options trading please let me know. Tools to find fintwitters on #bsky is less than ideal. Thanks! #equities #options #stocks #SPY #QQQ #IWM

submitted 11 days ago • 2 comments

Sublime music.youtube.com/watch?v=-kws...

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Good news for EV adoption: The next generation of EV batteries is cheaper, safer, and doesn't need rare earth metals. wapo.st/4gOBf4c

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

January's construction data tells us little about the outlook since weather was obviously a big drag, but the latest homebuilder survey does, and says builders are worried. 1/3

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

Being old is great, the present is a foreign country

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

My Dinner with André (1987)

submitted 284 days ago • 4 comments

This isn't advice and this is outside of my sphere of expertise, but I just bought a couple hundred face masks (and I didn't wear a face mask once in 2024)

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

www.wsj.com/health/bird-...

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

www.newsweek.com/trump-federa...

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Enjoyed talking with @justinterrellho.bsky.social on @marketplace.org today about the sliver of good news in the January CPI report--rents are driving less inflation than in 2024. www.marketplace.org

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

The Fed will see January's hot inflation print as confirmation that price pressures continue to bubble beneath the economy's surface. www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/h...

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on here! Welcome, @ericagroshen.bsky.social! If you care about workers, employers, jobs, and the federal statistical system, an essential follow.

submitted 20 days ago • 4 comments

This is the closest I've found to an intuitive explanation of the link between national savings and trade deficits: If the Adamses bake 10 loaves of bread and eat 11, we definitely buy one more loaf than we sold. Putting pennies in the jar to penalize ourselves only works if we ultimately eat less.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Fed Powell climate observation: "If you fast forward 10 or 15 years, they're going to be regions of the country where you can't get a mortgage, there won't be ATMs. There won't, you know, the banks won't have branches, things like that. That's, that's a possibility coming up down the road."

submitted 20 days ago • 15 comments

These are ridiculous numbers (via Lance Lambert of ResiClub):

submitted 20 days ago • 10 comments

HY spreads are very tight but because investors haven’t properly adjusted their mindset to a non-zero interest rate world and are only focused on absolute yield. So the credit market(s, both public and private) trades on yield because at a ~7% in HY you’re being well paid for default risk, right? /1

submitted 22 days ago • 5 comments

Another reason for the messy January jobs report: Lots of people out of work with the flu last month.

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

wapo.st/40LvGgV

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Messy January jobs #'s: Big drags from wildfires and winter storms, household employment revised up, payrolls revised down. Takeaways: --Unemployment rose in last 12 months, esp for women --Growth of native-born labor force (110k/mo in 2024) isn't keeping up with labor demand (payrolls up 168k/mo)

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

expect updated population controls to accurately reflect the immigration surge for the first time

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage...

submitted 25 days ago • 0 comments

Today's private payrolls report from ADP shows hiring picked up in the second half of 2024 as the Fed cut rates. Private hiring averaged 119,000 per month in the first half of the year, then 170,000 in the second half. It's strengthened even more over the last 3 months, to 187,000/mo.

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

Today's private payrolls report from ADP shows hiring picked up in the second half of 2024 as the Fed cut rates. Private hiring averaged 119,000 per month in the first half of the year, then 170,000 in the second half. It's strengthened even more over the last 3 months, to 187,000/mo.

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

Great to see more of formerly-fintwit here! I always enjoy talking with Chuck on @moneylifeshow.bsky.social, he cuts to the heart of what's driving markets.

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

charlie_lucy_football.gif

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Worthwhile Canadian follow right here, folks

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Our forecast assumptions a month ago were --Trump is serious about tariffs --Trump likes the stock market going up If you assume he squares the circle you are led to another corporate tax cut on top of the tcja extension

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

If you're looking for something to do that's not on a screen, turn on @bloomberg.com Daybreak Asia in five minutes where I'll be discussing today's GDP report and yesterday's Fed decision with Bryan Curtis and Doug Krizner

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

The Fed will see the GDP report as another green light to keep their foot on the brake near-term. Rising unemployment worried them last year and motivated the September to December rate cuts, but the growth data we just got shows that higher unemployment wasn't a sign of recession starting.

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

A very level headed delivery from Powell--the economy and policy are in a good place, they want to see more progress on inflation (or cooling labor markets) to cut rates further. They expect good news on inflation but are "not in a hurry"--they will ignore noise and make policy as they always have

submitted 33 days ago • 1 comment

Chair Powell mentioned 4x so far that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry" to cut rates. Policy rate will likely be unchanged at the next few decisions.

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments

Rarely have I seen child number two more disgusted than when I explained to her during homework tonight that no, 入 and 人 are different unrelated characters "Ugh, that's SO STUPID"

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments