birdyword.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

The media monoculture breaking down is so fun. This guy is visiting China, I had never previously heard of him, but as far as I can tell it's perhaps the third biggest global news story happening in the last week.

submitted 12 days ago • 3 comments

It's important to remember that for younger investors, a selloff can represent a great entry opportunity! Unless it represents a change in the value of discounted future cash flows.

submitted 13 days ago • 4 comments

Fact check true

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

There are now only two occasions in recent financial history where the S&P 500 sold off more sharply in two days than it has since the US tariff announcements - the peak of Covid panic in March 2020, and a cluster of occasions during the very worst moments of the global financial crisis in 2008

submitted 13 days ago • 3 comments

My piece today: Trump's tariff bazooka is the biggest threat yet to 15yrs of US equity exceptionalism. It's not just the mindless economic hit. Amateurish execution undermines the widespread belief in pro-market US governance www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 14 days ago • 2 comments

Some of the US stocks with the biggest international trade/production exposures have just been absolutely battered since mid-February. Best Buy, Dell and Nike down between 26% and 36%.

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

Capital Economics: if today's announcements are implemented, the effective US tariff rate will shoot straight past the Smoot-Hawley levels of the 1930s. "The effective tariff rate on all imports will rise from 2.3% last year to around 26%, leaving it at a 131-year high"

submitted 15 days ago • 34 comments

What's a historical example of an economic policy as significant as the tariffs being discussed, where we knew similarly little about the scale of the announcement right beforehand? The Covid + 2008 crisis responses seem different because they were triggered by exogenous events.

submitted 16 days ago • 12 comments

There's something darkly funny in looking at these trends and remembering the RW mockery of the shifting "current thing" and NPCs who can't think for themselves

submitted 16 days ago • 6 comments

Bit embarrassing to admit they missed this one

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

It is fascinating that the entirety of the recent US stock selloff is accounted for by valuation re-rating. For all the reduced confidence, tariff threats etc, earnings estimates are still at an all-time-high.

submitted 20 days ago • 11 comments

Even if the Chinese economy rebounds (a big if), and its tech crackdown comes to a clear end, politics now makes it hard for Wall Street to turn really bullish. Investors in Dubai, Singapore and Zurich will not feel the same compunctions. My column this week. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 20 days ago • 1 comment

submitted 22 days ago • 1 comment

I think when you already have slightly cartoonish facial furniture, these things work even better

submitted 22 days ago • 2 comments

To put the recent rally in Chinese tech stocks in context, they're still much cheaper by forward PE (red line) than US tech stocks (green line), but also cheaper than the US market overall. The drop from a PE of 70 at the peak of the 2020-early '21 mania is insane.

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

"(Two other users subsequently added prayer emoji.)"

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

A happy reminder from Google Photos of my first of three trips into various forms of quarantine in Hong Kong, five years ago today! How the time flies eh

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

Henry VIII's 1527 suit of armour next to his 1544 suit of armour in the "Track Your Calories" exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art

submitted 25 days ago • 2 comments

Trump is so powerful that he may even manage to break the overwhelming anti-incumbent trend in global politics, by propelling the Canadian Liberals back into office.

submitted 28 days ago • 3 comments

After 15yrs of roaring returns, US investors have never been so exposed to a selloff. Stock wealth ran to 170% of disposable income last year, twice the long-term average. But the way they interpret a selloff is now being warped by the country's divisive politics www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 29 days ago • 1 comment

Bank of America records the biggest single drop in allocations to US stocks on record (data goes back to 2001) in its monthly fund manager survey. An astonishing shift - investors went from overweighting US equities in Feb (net +17%) to underweighting heavily in March (net -23%).

submitted 30 days ago • 2 comments

I hadn't realised just how comic the partisan division in consumer expectations data is over time. It's actually slightly amazing that this can average out to something useful. (University of Michigan index, Red = GOP, Blue = Dems)

submitted 31 days ago • 8 comments

This is really completely insane

submitted 32 days ago • 32 comments

One thing I find interesting about Tesla is how weird the stock has been relative to other companies in a similar weight class - most megacaps grind upwards, constantly beating expectations, but Tesla basically has two huge jumps that account for almost all the net growth (log scales)

submitted 38 days ago • 4 comments

Presumably the people who think asset prices should be included in measures of inflation must be really happy right now

submitted 38 days ago • 1 comment

Today was the worst day for US stocks, relative to global stocks (ex-US) in nearly two and a half years

submitted 44 days ago • 2 comments

Huge job here for someone - Anthropic is hiring an econ-focused writer to work on @stuartjritchie.bsky.social's team boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jo...

submitted 47 days ago • 0 comments

This week, I wrote about the worrying rise in American credit card delinquences, now at a 13yr high. Delinquencies are high but extremely concentrated - among young people, in poor locations, and with bad credit ratings www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 56 days ago • 3 comments

This week, I wrote about the financial disclosures of the Trump II cabinet. Beyond enormous differences in wealth (Scott Bessent's art + antiques are worth at least 5x Marco Rubio's assets), the extent of crypto investment among the new MAGA crowd is eye-opening www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 70 days ago • 2 comments

This week, I wrote about the financial disclosures of the Trump II cabinet. Beyond enormous differences in wealth (Scott Bessent's art + antiques are worth at least 5x Marco Rubio's assets), the extent of crypto investment among the new MAGA crowd is eye-opening www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 70 days ago • 2 comments

We're nearly there guys, we are so so close

submitted 75 days ago • 5 comments

Pretty astounding to look at the German election forecasts from our polling gurus. In the central scenario (across 100 simulations), the AfD doubles its share of seats, Social Democrats slip into third place for the first time in postwar German electoral history. www.economist.com/interactive/...

submitted 78 days ago • 2 comments

Probably the best chart for illustrating what's going on right now in markets. Nvidia down by ~18% over three days, dragging tech overall down by ~6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the People's Index, soldiers on, up ~1%.

submitted 80 days ago • 5 comments

A few weeks ago I wrote about the potential upsides of a financial bubble, which I've been thinking about a bunch today. Feels like the market today is actually not a bad example of the typology identified in it - there seems to be almost no spillover. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

submitted 80 days ago • 4 comments

In total market cap, the Nvidia selloff today is a little bit bigger than if the entire listed market of Mexico went to zero.

submitted 80 days ago • 43 comments

If it seems like everyone is suddenly talking about a rapid catch-up by Chiness AI companies, and you're not sure how we got here, this week's brilliantly-timed briefing on the subject is a very good place to start. www.economist.com/briefing/202...

submitted 80 days ago • 1 comment