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Goldman: "We have reduced our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.2% previously, and bumped up our unemployment rate forecast by 0.1pp to 4.2%." 1/2

submitted 33 minutes ago • 1 comment

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/hous...

submitted 41 minutes ago • 0 comments

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/ice-mortga... 1/5

submitted 1 day ago • 4 comments

The problem was there was an unusual surge in gold imports (due to tariff threats), and the underlying data wasn't released until later. GDPNow will adjust at the next release. GDPnow is an excellent GDP tracker and will likely turn positive at the next release on March 17th but still be very low

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

“Transitioning” from 50 straight months of job growth, a 400% rise in manufacturing construction and the best back-to-back years for the stock market in a quarter century. 🤡

submitted 2 days ago • 1314 comments

Atlanta Fed discusses GDPNow and gold atlfed.org/3QPmCmD

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Coming March 18: "How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth - and how to avoid them." www.hownottoinvestbook.com

submitted 45 days ago • 8 comments

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Powell: "Uncertainty" www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

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Goldman revises down forecast based on policy risks: "[core PCE inflation will] peak at about 3% year-on-year ... we have reduced our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.2% previously. ... We have bumped up our unemployment rate forecast by 0.1pp to 4.2%"

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/q1-g...

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Comments on February Employment Report www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/comm...

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February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/febr...

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I'm curious what Fed Chair Powell will say tomorrow on the "Economic outlook"! 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business I wonder if this will break the Zoom App! chicagoboothgroup.zoom.us/j/9741186978...

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...

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GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories - but that lags. That is why GDPNow's tracking estimate of GDP is likely way too low.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Goldman: "The trade deficit widened in January, reflecting a surge in gold imports ahead of potential tariffs ... most of the widening in the trade deficit since November reflects higher gold imports, which are excluded from GDP because they are not consumed or used in production."

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Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/trad...

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/week...

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Top 3 countries for tourist visits to US: 1) Canada 31% in 2023 2) Mexico 22% in 2023 3) UK 6% in 2023 It seems the hotel / travel industry is going to take a hit.

submitted 4 days ago • 5 comments

Advice for Trump Admin and DOGE: "Never mistake activity for achievement." John Wooden

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/core...

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Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/feds...

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ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/ice-mortga...

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ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/ism-... The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

ADP 77K. adpemploymentreport.com "Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month. Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead."

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/mba-...

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DOGE will cost taxpayers billions.

submitted 5 days ago • 4 comments

Ready. Fire. Aim.

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/upda...

submitted 5 days ago • 12 comments

UPDATE: The Commerce Department has terminated the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC) and several other outside committees that advised the statistical agencies. #EconSky

submitted 5 days ago • 11 comments

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/heav...

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic) calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and...

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Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/lawl...

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Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/vehi...

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

A Comment on GDPNow www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-co... "the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative ... Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator."

submitted 6 days ago • 2 comments

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment