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carlislerainey.bsky.social

political scientist at FSU; experimental design, inference (frequentist and Bayesian), metascience Web: https://www.carlislerainey.com Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=otXLf3

358 posts 2,537 followers 590 following

Posts 22 Comments 28

My commentary on Isager, van ‘t Veer, and Lakens’ (2024) “Replication value as a function of citation impact and sample size” is now accepted at Meta-Psychology. CC: @isager.bsky.social @lakens.bsky.social @annaveer.bsky.social Preprint: osf.io/preprints/me...

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

This is a very cool hands-on paper on power calculations! Warmly recommended #EconSky 📉📈

submitted 100 days ago • 3 comments

“First, I do not sit down at my desk to put into verse something that is already clear in my mind. If it were clear in my mind, I should have no incentive or need to write about it. We do not write in order to be understood; we write in order to understand.” ― Cecil Day Lewis #WritingSky

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

I'm reading a lot about "data doesn't lie." But I'm an expert in statistics, and I say confidently that is incorrect. It should be "data don't lie."

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

#OpenAccess from @pspolisci.bsky.social - Data and Code Availability in Political Science Publications from 1995 to 2022 - cup.org/43787Sz - @carlislerainey.bsky.social, @harleyroe.bsky.social, Qing Wang & Hao Zhou #FirstView

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

As academic, it's hard to know whether short-run effort is leading to long-run success. One way to gauge is Munger's Rule, where you keep 3+ papers under review. Do you use this rule or a similar one? I'm curious to hear success (or failure) stories and learn about people's variants on this idea.

submitted 18 days ago • 10 comments

📣Just posted the final version of "Data and Code Availability in Political Science Publications from 1995 to 2022," coming out in PS (@pspolisci.bsky.social). w/ Harley Roe (@harleyroe.bsky.social), Qing Wang, and Hao Zhou #polisci #openscience #stats #preprint 📄Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

submitted 19 days ago • 3 comments

📣Just posted the final version of "Data and Code Availability in Political Science Publications from 1995 to 2022," coming out in PS (@pspolisci.bsky.social). w/ Harley Roe (@harleyroe.bsky.social), Qing Wang, and Hao Zhou #polisci #openscience #stats #preprint 📄Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

submitted 19 days ago • 3 comments

WashU PoliSci is hosting its third annual summer research program for undergraduates! Applications are due March 7. If you know students who might be thinking of grad school and want to get hands-on research experience, encourage them to apply at: sites.wustl.edu/wusteps/

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

I just made my Bluesky experience better. Settings > Content and media > Thread preferences Select “Show replies as threaded”

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

"Power Rules: Practical Statistical Power Calculations" Preprint DOI: doi.org/10.31219/osf... #stats #polisky

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

"The Limits (and Strengths) of Single-Topic Experiments" is now published in Political Analysis. Open-Access DOI: doi.org/10.1017/pan.... w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social

submitted 35 days ago • 1 comment

IMO, their measures also underestimate support for violence by conceptualizing and measuring it as indiscriminate partisan violence. In a couple of papers, we find much more support that seems to be motivated by perceptions of harm and policy disagreements 1/4

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

Here's a cool back and forth. Original paper from Aronow et al.: arxiv.org/pdf/2108.11342 Response from Dimmery and Munger: arxiv.org/pdf/2501.12161

submitted 37 days ago • 2 comments

““Moderates””

submitted 38 days ago • 1 comment

How blue is your blue? My blue is 90% bluer than others. Where are you? ismy.blue

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

#5 is violence.

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

I'm organizing the APSA panels for the experiments section. Please submit your experimental papers* to our section first! Deadline extended to January 20. *see call for scope

submitted 43 days ago • 0 comments

🚨 I'm on two great #SPSA2025 panels today (Saturday)! First, at 2pm in San Cristobal D, I'll be talking about my paper "Power Rules." Please come over and say hello! www.carlislerainey.com/talks/2025-0...

submitted 48 days ago • 1 comment

Frequentism is not for the faint of heart. Many a person had to become Bayesian because they hadn't the courage to be a frequentist.

submitted 82 days ago • 3 comments

I’m not always the most perceptive, but it was indeed provocative.

submitted 85 days ago • 0 comments

Our take on this “criticism”—experiments that focus on topics that are narrower than the theoretical domain are essential, valuable, and important, especially in the beginning. osf.io/preprints/so...

submitted 85 days ago • 2 comments