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cathmiles.bsky.social
Freelance charity fundraising consultant, helping charities grow income and develop their teams www.catherinemilesconsulting.com
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It would be the most British Politics thing ever if the rise of populism falters because of house prices and Upper Working/Lower Middle class snobbery.

One of those stats that always gets me when I see it... Norway's soverign wealth fund owns 1.5% of *all* listed shares.

Starmer: "If you're a Tory voter who doesn't want a pro-Russia foreign policy, how does a merger with Reform work for you? If you're a Reform voter who thinks the Tories failed for 14 years, how does it work for you? Both sets of voters are being conned. It would be a disaster for the country." ~AA

The Economist's model says that Mark Carney is likely to win the Canadian election, wiping out a 24-percentage-point gap. Master diplomat Donald Trump has inadvertently swung an election. www.economist.com/interactive/...

You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle

The main story of the local elections is this 👇🏻 - the continuing collapse of the Tory vote. The BBC/print media are likely to frame the results as Labour losing support and Reform surging to power without analysing how the Tories are losing votes to both Reform and the Lib Dems in their heartlands.

The polling backdrop of the local elections - i.e., how they've shifted since these seats were last fought. As in the GE last year, the Tories' collapse is more proportional than uniform - they've lost more where they were stronger - meaning their losses will be more severe.

To separate out the post-GE changes, here's the below chart rebased to our post-election figures (though, remember, it is the 2021 comparison that matters more on Thursday) Labour losing most strongly among 25-49s, in Scotland and Wales, as well as more among women and C2DEs.

Surprisingly poor performance by B*stars here. You would’ve thought fans of Sean Bean alone would get it above 1%.

Why are we not doing this? Never seen a more "no brainer" policy. Even people who are the most strongly opposed to immigration tend not to object to top scientists coming here.

Fun and important chart of how various party's voters felt about the other options in July 2024. IMO this is one of the most important things to keep an eye on this parliament.

On the left - feeble, wishy-washy Labour comms On the right - terrifying, hard-hitting General Boles photoshop

The government borrowed £151 billion last financial year. Which was £14.6 billion more than the OBR estimate *last month*. And yet their forecasts for five years time are being used as the entire basis for public policy decision making.

Britain wakes up every day, aims the gun at its feet and pulls the trigger. Just a prolonged exercise in meanspiritedness and self-harm.

Gary Lineker: "This is the mistake the BBC makes. The BBC tries to appease the people that hate the BBC, rather than worrying about the people that love the BBC."

If I see another article about birth rates that refuses to grapple with the way having children systematically disadvantages women I swear to god. There is no mystery. Stop pretending there is. We’ve got to do away with credulity for nonsense.

UK political prognostications, 2019-2029: 2019: Tories to rule forever 2020: Tories to rule forever 2021: Tories to rule forever 2022: Oops 2023: Hmm 2024: Ah 2025: Farage to rule forever 2026: Farage to rule forever (Repeat until at least 2029)

Not knocking Luke & MoreInCommon work here, but I am going to be a broken record on *all* MRPs from here to 2028: They are IMHO pretty useless as guide to potential results because how voters behave will depend hugely on which parties are competitive in their area & what they think of those parties

Should anyone out there still take an unhealthy interest in the Tories (I suppose I should add, for those who prefer novelty to tradition, that UKIP/Brexit Party/ReformUK is still very much part of their story too!), the updated paperback is out at the end of this week.

I’d buy it.

This reads like a fire signal to alert the more oblivious members of the Supreme Court that we are on the precipice of everything falling apart.

This is why being nostalgic and anti-vaccine is dangerous Rows of mass graves, young graves and needless traumatic child deaths

Behold the spectre, yet again, of the possibility of a “US-UK trade deal”. If something is agreed between the two countries over the next couple of months, it will be razor-thin. It will not be anywhere close to as beneficial as being in the European single market.

The descent into fascism is always marked by the normalisation of crimes by the state. Trump’s shakedown of law firms has been pure extortion. A blatant crime. That mainstream media won’t say that should be a flashing warning sign.

Your regular reminder that almost everything Trump is getting away with is not because of presidential strength, but because of congressional weakness and judicial deference. The constitutional tools are already there to fix this, but those who can fix it are refusing to do so.

💥 Whopper scoop from @andybounds.bsky.social: Brussels is issuing burner phones & basic laptops to commissioners & senior officials travelling to the US for IMF/World Bank spring meetings next week to avoid risk of espionage — a measure traditionally reserved for China. www.ft.com/content/20d0...

Genuinely amazing that Trump has devised a tariff regime that exempts phones manufactured in China but hammers anyone assembling electronics in the USA using parts made in China. Cannot *wait* to see how his boosters explain that decision as genius.

Some designs stand the test of time! 🩴 Ancient Egyptian flip-flop-style fibre sandals, still looking remarkably wearable, and as good as the day they were made some 3,400 years ago! From the Tomb of Yuya and Tjuya. Dynasty 18, reign of Amenhotep III. Egyptian Museum, Cairo 📷 by me #Archaeology

Best decision Sunak has ever made. Arise Sir Jimmy.

Trump is finding out the US really isn’t as economically strong as he thinks it is.

Why did Trump pause the Tariffs?

The Good Friday Agreement was signed 27 years ago today. It was an act of delicate diplomacy, which delivered peace and security to a part of our country where those qualities had long been absent. Those achievements should never be taken for granted.

BBC 10 o'clock news (transcript) This gets the headline news wrong over Trump's tariff pause.

Big week for fans of the political Reverse Ferret.

NEW: Trump caved.

The US is utter chaos. Complete and utter chaos, for at least another four years and probably long into the future. Any British government working in the national interest will be investigating how to quickly reduce our exposure to it.

"We always thought a Liz Truss moment would never happen in a country like the US." If it does, it will be a thousand times worse than what we saw in the UK, says @lewisgoodall.com articles.globalplayer.com/2GXqAKfFLnkU...

It's at times like this that we're forced to acknowledge that the @BBC is no longer a source of serious, considered and informed commentary..The closing down of Newsnight & the trivialisation of Question Time profoundly wrong.

European companies are looking at how to de-Americanify - column by @richardmilne.ft.com www.ft.com/content/eabd...

Today is the Anniversary of the Battle of Arras in 1917 which included the Canadian Corps assault on Vimy Ridge. The Vimy Memorial is one of the most impressive on the Western Front and I never tire in trying to capture its beauty and sadness.