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ccsewell.bsky.social
Director at Forefront Advisers. Macro, financial services, digital assets. Views my own. Ex-BoE, Treasury. Labour member, big on sports, rugby referee. Bi and autistic.
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Shower thought: just realised how much His Dark Materials has the same structure as a classic JRPG. First level: you and your cute animal companion sneak into a study! A childhood friend joins your party. Final level: you, your love interest and a motley crew kill God.

This quote would appear to illustrate a dangerous level of economic illiteracy, to a point which I find frankly quite alarming

Providing a weak, milquetoast impersonation of the far right has consistently failed across countries and time periods. As a Labour member, it has been deeply disheartening to see those leading the party fall back on lazy, old and unsuccessful strategies.

New voter just dropped: Dead Man www.economist.com/britain/2025...

This is so god damned stupid

Sorry to keep banging the drum, but we need to keep three points in mind: 1. If this crisis escalates, it will be entirely down to Trump and those around him 2. He told us, very clearly, pre-election that he was going to do this 3. Therefore, all those who came out and backed him share the blame

I love carefully judged comms to reassure the market

These things are always hard to pin down in the moment, but much of the spike in US yields appears to be down to unwinding of the basis trade. I’ll do a brief explainer but TLDR: hedge funds borrowed to exploit a trade which was reliably profitable but with very small margins, it’s now blowing up.

This last week has been a fantastic advertisement for parliamentary democracy. Whatever the flaws of the UK system, “being able to get rid of Liz Truss without waiting three years” was a pretty big plus.

Incredible for a wire to have pushed such a market-moving story which… appears to be made up from whole cloth?

In pure nominal terms (i.e. not accounting for inflation), we must now be well past the point where the fallout of these tariffs makes them the most expensive/costly decision ever made by a single human being.

This. If you voted for Trump, you did vote for this. You might have succeeded in deluding yourself into believing you were voting for something else, but that’s your problem to deal with.

It’s deeply important, from the perspective of basic honesty and accountability, that we don’t allow prominent media/political/industrial figures to whitewash previous Trump support by going “well I never believe he would do this.” He told us what he would do. If you didn’t listen, that’s on you.

This is an excellent point. Truss supporting Trump is an admission that the economic theory that she’s supported her entire life is wrong, or that she is in fact a purely vibes-based politician who either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care about basic facts.

Something I haven’t seen discussed: Doing everything they physically can to resist Trump must be the #1 priority for the Democrat leadership, because right now he is resetting expectations of presidential power. If this continues, the second-term Obama/Biden playbooks will become even less viable.

The “financial markets are woke” argument was stupid and failed miserably when Truss tried it in the UK and won’t go any better for the Trump admin

Just to explain this a bit further for those unclear on what is happening: Cass served as the *chief economist* at the conservative think tank American Compass (that he founded) and was a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. He has a BA in *Political Economy*.

This is not just disgraceful but completely detached from reality. I invite everyone to go and read what Yuan and Abtisam have said on the issue. There is nothing there even vaguely resembling “Hamas propaganda”. The Conservatives are led by a collection of opinions from far-right Twitter trolls.

I defy anyone to look at this and still say integration isn't working in the UK.

*Screaming intensifies*

again I point to 'liz truss but without the ability to remove liz truss' as the key to understanding what will likely happen in the next few months to the US economy.

The last one really makes this

If the tariffs do cause an emergency price hike of the Switch 2 then - beyond the meme value - it will be a very early reminder that the negative impacts of tariffs can be very, very directly visible to consumers

If Trump loses the Nintendo fanboys it will truly be over

I have no evidence for this but I’d be willing to bet that the retail day trading community overwhelming voted Trump. Which is going to make things… interesting.