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cffn.bsky.social
A girl knows nothing. She's just trying to figure stuff out.
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Posts 13 Comments 37

Non-tariff barriers, like the US accusing Vietnam of "dumping" shrimps, just because Vietnam has lower labor costs? Or like the US banning the word "catfish" for all catfish raised outside of the US? Angering even Australia. The US could have just signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

submitted 14 hours ago • 1 comment

DJT 1.0: Let's cancel the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the best trade deal and geopolitical accomplishment in recent memory, negotiated by 12 nations over 10 years. Because *I* didn't have a hand in it. DJT 2.0: Let's learn economics by breaking things like a toddler and slooooooooowly end up at TTP.

submitted 22 hours ago • 1 comment

It's funny that people who don't study history think that the US was founded as a Christian nation. Those Christians were heretics fleeing religious persecution in Europe: the Pilgrims, the Quakers, the Huguenots, the Lutherans, etc. etc. That's why the Constitution promises religious freedom.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

Anti-Christian, like Marco Rubio withdrawing life-saving aid for the poorest people in the world? They are right about the State Department being the most anti-Christian it's ever been. The Cultural Revolution didn't end well for those at the top. These people didn't study history.

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Economic uncertainty update: The thing about veering wildly between policy positions, favouring and then discarding a new maverick advisor each week, and using contradictory justifications at every turn, is that even if one particular pivot is in the direction of sanity, chaos is the constant.

submitted 3 days ago • 38 comments

I'm a financial analyst. Meaning if I say something at 8am and it's still true by 5pm, it's a good day. Using BlueSky to share real time news and analyses and keep a record of my predictions. Please keep that in mind if you read an old post. I didn't have all info then, and won't delete it later.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

This kind of headlines, the week trade grinds to a halt with our second biggest trading partner, who makes everything from our consumer goods, parts for our manufacturing, rare earths for our war planes, etc., who also holds a big chunk of our government debt, is a sign of an unhealthy market.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

I don't see how people can still say we "might" have a recession. We are already in a recession if people have already reduced spending. This is across geographies and socioeconomic class. Government spending, business investment, exports have contracted, too... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

I'll have 2008 again, please. Competent people. Supportive governments and central banks. International cooperation. Bear Stearns was a shock. Lehman was a bigger shock. But after that, even as things were unravelling into a deep dark pit for 18 months, we knew there was a bottom. Not so with this.

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

1/ Things I didn't have to worry about as a young portfolio manager in 2008: - Treasuries not being risk-free - Sociopathic leaders tanking their own countries - Actual wars, trade wars, cyber wars, etc. - Geopolitical realignment - Left-field existential threats, e.g. man-made pandemics

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Now we are going to really find out all the things that China makes that we can't live without. I'm going to laugh so hard if it's something that goes into an F-35.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

1/ If the 125% tariff on China + 10% tariff on rest of world announcement had been made last week, markets would have tanked the whole time. We've stepped back from "global economic collapse" to "greatest depression in US history" territory. Forecasters don't want to be wrong so they'll wait.

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

4. China dumps US treasuries on the open market, immediately winning the trade war. Then invades Taiwan because when the hell is better. Who the fuck sweats on a little bit of overnight bond market action and then doubles down on trade war with China? Fine, these idiots.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment