chrisgiles.ft.com - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

“EVERYONE IS WRONG ABOUT RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND HOW I HANDLE IT but also maybe Putin is not the guy I thought.”

submitted 1 hour ago • 35 comments

No criticism of the chancellor implied here, but UK's trade with the EU is DEFINITIVELY more important than that with the US, not "arguably" That is just a fact www.ft.com/content/7a5a...

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

China playing hardball and wating for the Trump capitulation (which will come) was utterly predictable and predicted China tells US to ‘cancel all unilateral tariffs’ if it wants talks ft.com/content/3e07... via @ft

submitted 2 days ago • 23 comments

The US statement to the IMFC is (governing body of the IMF) is.... ....remarkably sane Could have been written by many administrations in recent decades home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Following today’s horrible public finance numbers, …either @OBR_UK forecasts are hopeless … or @ONS initial figures are terrible Which UK economic institution will be shown to have come up short? GAME ON

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

Latest from the FT's Monetary Policy Radar - our new Fed scenarios on.ft.com/4jnOU4u

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Trump requirements for next Fed chair - Ignore tariffs are stagflationary - Like lower interest rates - Kiss ass Is this now the world's worst job? on.ft.com/4cN4AM6

submitted 4 days ago • 14 comments

"the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs hit mostly in the US. Other countries facing a demand shock can simply offset this with looser policy". - on.ft.com/3S4shFW via @chrisgiles.ft.com

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

It’s time to retire the phrase, “when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold” on.ft.com/3RoUozD The US, not others, will feel most pain from its economic mistakes

submitted 5 days ago • 8 comments

The US, not others, will feel most pain from its economic mistakes

submitted 5 days ago • 6 comments

Cool

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

How rich are you? www.ft.com/content/3890...

submitted 9 days ago • 3 comments

A nice write up of our research as part of @escoeorg.bsky.social on local consumption spending. More info (and interactive graphics!) here! ifs.org.uk/articles/whi...

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Standing in for the Inside Politics newsletter today, I had some fin with the question of who is "well-off"? But mostly I had a go at the notion that people in London are really rich and that regulators should do redistribution on.ft.com/4jdbTyW

submitted 9 days ago • 4 comments

Quality comments on the @katie0martin.ft.com excellent piece today

submitted 10 days ago • 5 comments

It really matters if you make behavioural assumptions when looking at Trump's tariffs and the effective overall rate. This is a massive cost shock to the US - what to do - my newsletter with help from @isabellamweber.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/b11b...

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

Nah, we’re good thanks

submitted 14 days ago • 15 comments

Democrats are in deep gloom about the US economy. Even republicans are beginning to look down (University of Michigan survey)

submitted 15 days ago • 1 comment

The test case is going to the Supreme Court and faster than we expected

submitted 15 days ago • 2 comments

this is getting a little lost but 😱

submitted 15 days ago • 13 comments

A reminder to all those who like to measure the global economy in market exchange rates The size of the US economy has fallen 9 per cent since Donald Trump's inauguration in Euro terms

submitted 15 days ago • 4 comments

European stocks up (a bit) today after a grim US session yday. Dollar getting smacked. Feels like the market is isolating the patient.

submitted 15 days ago • 5 comments

This is a fantastic article by @adamposen.bsky.social explaining with great clarity why the conventional wisdom that the US has the upper hand in a bilateral trade war with China is dead wrong. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

submitted 16 days ago • 11 comments

Oh - the 125% China tariff is actually 145% All the previous ones did not include existing tariffs and 84% (ie 104%) has been upped to 125% in new Executive order

submitted 15 days ago • 2 comments

It's almost impossible to calculate the effective US tariff rate now... On 2024 trading patterns, the 125% China tariff raises the US effective rate 14 percentage points alone... ... that won't happen

submitted 16 days ago • 4 comments

Good news for buyers of uncertainty.... big tariffs lasted a day

submitted 16 days ago • 3 comments

Will the Fed intervene in disorderly markets (especially Treasuries)? Under what authority? Not if it can possibly help it.... on.ft.com/42p2Nbo

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

"The watchdog is so skint, I am told, that it cannot afford one subscription to any news organisation," writes @chrisgiles.ft.com on the OBR. A consistent problem in Britain is trying to do politics/policy on the cheap (see also: Spads). www.ft.com/content/2433...

submitted 24 days ago • 1 comment

Pleased to see @chrisgiles.ft.com make this point I keep banging away at. The fiscal framework incentivises bad policy making. It's doing the opposite of what it was supposed to do.

submitted 24 days ago • 8 comments

In which @chrisgiles.ft.com says the OBR has ended up setting policy second hand with questions over democratic legitimacy - so "hand the guesswork over productivity growth back to ministers" www.ft.com/content/2433...

submitted 24 days ago • 0 comments

Ahead of tariff day, the US economy whiffs of stagflation. It is faint still and mostly in soft data, but difficult to disguise My newsletter www.ft.com/content/341a...

submitted 25 days ago • 4 comments

“It's uncomfortable for the government, it's uncomfortable for the OBR itself. And I think in a democratic process, it feels pretty uncomfortable more widely still.” @chrisgiles.ft.com UCL Policy Lab Hon Prof on the challanges for the OBR and economic projections. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/p...

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

Not good for Fed independence

submitted 28 days ago • 0 comments

I am a stuck record on this. OBR’s halving of the 2025 growth “forecast” is almost entirely in the past. It’s not a forecast at all, just a reflection of what has happened

submitted 30 days ago • 1 comment

Is the world addicted to debt? Investors have been warning that governments are addicted to debt for the past 20 years and the alarm bells are growing louder. This FT film examines what some people are calling the biggest issue in finance today youtu.be/n1jhoU9Mp_U?...

submitted 30 days ago • 2 comments