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In the NY Fed's March SCE (entirely predating "liberation day"), the expected financial situation result turned negative for the first time since Nov 2023 30% said they expect to be worse off in a year 28.7% said better The net -1.3% is down from +15.6% in January

submitted 8 hours ago • 1 comment

Many of the biggest supporters of Trump’s actions and even members of the admin have leaned on the idea that the Fed can come to the rescue And as usual, it’s just insanely wishful thinking — More likely that they’ve put the Fed into an impossible situation

submitted 11 hours ago • 0 comments

This is good to remember as the economy begins its post-free-trade era The total impact of tariffs won’t be felt immediately, or all at once (esp with uncertainty as a long-term pressure). Exposure varies by company/industry and some will tolerate the impacts better for longer

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Reposting my thoughts on Caraveo running in CO08 from Twitter bc yeah

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

get me out of this timeline it’s so grim

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Haha Semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment Pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients there are no words!

submitted 2 days ago • 4 comments

All that weekend drama for a super sleepy day (I’ll take it tbh) The retreat of treasury yields is good news for stability though, even if they’re still elevated A slow sink into recession will suck but it’s preferable to a financial crisis

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Fed’s survey of consumer expectations has unemployment expectations at the highest level since Covid

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Stocks and bond yields both up as futures trading starts

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Trump with tariffs is very evocative of this tbh

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Lutnick this am said that all the exempted electronics from yesterday are gonna be included in the chips/semiconductor tariffs coming in a month or two 😭 Also said pharmaceutical tariffs are on a similar timeline Don’t pmo… abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics...

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

Thoughts on tariffs from Twitter It seems likely that we end up with some haphazard combination of tariffs and deals that’s far from worst-case but still worse than before Instead of crashing, we’d bleed over time, margins compressing and the economy falling further and further below trend

submitted 4 days ago • 6 comments

Lady Gaga’s Coachella performance was insane jfc What a singular performer

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

It’s time for my Super Bowl

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Thankfully, this isn’t the worst case — but it’s still a categorically insane ruling. Particularly given that we are 5 months removed from the election

submitted 5 days ago • 3 comments

We made it through the week everyone 🎉 Without a doubt among the most volatile weeks for markets in history Treasury yields pulled back from the highs of the day but still jumped to sit just above pre-pause levels from Wednesday Now we get a breather for the weekend

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Real 30y treasury yields are the highest they’ve been since early 2002 (Real 10y yields are the highest since 2007) 😐

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

Okay Hakeem you ate this one single thing

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

Anyway Lady Gaga’s Coachella set is tonight! I will be attending (virtually from my bedroom) 🙂‍↕️

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Woof @ this consumer sentiment reading Down to 50.8 from 57 last month (and 74 in December) % of people expecting unemployment to increase has skyrocketed in the past few months

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

This is being taken as a (boom-level) positive development, and it probably is a sign that Trump is wavering on the China tariffs But also the US asked for a call again and China not only didn’t call, but later raised their retaliatory tariff: Here’s the article www.cnn.com/2025/04/10/p...

submitted 5 days ago • 5 comments

If Trump doesn’t act are we gonna need Fed intervention at this rate?

submitted 5 days ago • 4 comments

-Rolls back some tariffs -everything becoming more expensive anyway because of a weakening dollar All this mess for literally no reason mind you

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

We’re approaching spooky levels again with bond yields, essentially back to the point that pushed Trump to the 90 day pause on Wednesday So will he backtrack again tomorrow if this continues or is he just gonna try to make it to the weekend

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

I wonder what the consumer sentiment print is going to be like tomorrow

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Particularly bc we know that Trump know does have a pain limit, my baseline is that there is a deal with China 145% is just so disruptive — and it’ll get worse since the tariff order kills the de minimis exemption with huge charges in May (and adds more in June)

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

This is my current understanding of tariffs The blanket tariffs got pulled back to 10% globally Last night at 12:01am, the Chinese tariffs got bumped to 125% Can/Mex are still in the USMCA limbo Industry tariffs still in effect with possibly more to come

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Until we get a more definite resolution on tariffs, this type of volatility is our life for the foreseeable future This is particularly true wrt to China right now The 125% tariff on China is adding 17.5% to the avg effective tariff rate (around 25% right now) all on its own

submitted 6 days ago • 1 comment

Just a constant state of uncertainty for the rest of the year it seems At least the baseline of walking into a recession is better than plunging into a depression

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

It’s very funny that Trump got the market to celebrate bad policy by toying with apocalyptic policy A 10% universal tariff is super dumb to begin with, and 125% on China is insane — but it manages to be orders of magnitude less bad than the alternative 😭

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Well, I’m glad we’re off the ledge there but I don’t know exactly where we go from here either

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

It’s April 10 in Beijing, so those 84% Chinese retaliatory tariffs are now in effect

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Last night, Canadian tariffs on US autos began In about 2.5 hours, 84% retaliatory tariffs from China will go into effect The EU today approved its plan for retaliation on the metal tariffs, starting April 15 — now moving onto discussing retaliation for the other tariffs

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

China just announced they’re adding another 50% to their retaliatory tariffs on us, bringing the total to 84% A 104% tariff on China from the US A 84% tariff on the US from China idk how this ends but it needs to end really fucking soon

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Debt becoming more expensive while everybody is simultaneously being made poorer is a combination that could get nasty very quickly if something doesn’t shift

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment