ecfr.eu - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Three times in history, German chancellors made strategic choices that strengthened Europe—always in alignment with the US. Now, Germany must act against US policy under Trump. Will it seize the moment? 🇪🇺 🔗 Read @fromtga.bsky.social ’s latest: buff.ly/3QXyTpr

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As EU-India talks continue in New Delhi, security and defence cooperation is in focus. Could India join PESCO? With global uncertainty rising, a new EU-India defence partnership is on the table. Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝 🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX

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Drone warfare is increasing in Ethiopia and across Africa. These foreign-supplied weapons risk prolonging wars and can help drive governments further away from the West. Read our new @ecfrafrica.bsky.social policy brief by @zekuzelalem.bsky.social buff.ly/4haBLtK

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“Europeans are increasingly wondering how to defend themselves from America.” With Trump’s return, Friedrich Merz is pushing Germany towards a new path—one that rethinks alliances and prioritises European sovereignty. Read Mark Leonard's analysis 📝

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❗NEW BRIEF❗ External and domestic responses to the #Sudan conflict have been ineffective, increasing the likelihood of a divided country. The #EU should be cautious of trade-offs that prioritize securitisation at the expense of civilian engagement. @ecfr.eu

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The EU should provide extra support to Western Balkan countries to boost the green transition—and ease future integration into the bloc. Read our new policy brief by @engjellushem.bsky.social and Lea Fanku. @ecfrwidereurope.bsky.social buff.ly/4ilIRMX

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ECFR has 7 new insights for your weekend👇 📰 Read the full stories on our website: ecfr.eu

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A “peace on Russia’s terms” would be a disaster for Europe. Without clear security guarantees for Ukraine, Russia could exploit negotiations, resume war, and further divide the West. Europe must act decisively—before it's too late. Read more 👉 buff.ly/4bioJIZ

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🎧 Mark Leonard welcomes @jeremycliffe.bsky.social , @jpuglierin.bsky.social , Piotr Buras & @dumoulinme.bsky.social to break down Germany’s federal election results. What’s next? What kind of coalition will emerge? Listen, share and subscribe! ✍ Full episode here: buff.ly/4i3HF0P

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🇺🇦 The geopolitical landscape around Ukraine is shifting. Which new partnerships can 🇺🇦 explore? Lesia Ogryzko down the opportunities with the Nordic-Baltic 8 🇩🇰🇪🇪🇫🇮🇮🇸🇱🇻🇱🇹🇳🇴🇸🇪 Read her full brief here: buff.ly/4b5Jd83 🎥 Watch the video 1/2

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Three times in the postwar era Germany made strategic choices that benefited Europe—with the US at its side. Now it must do it in opposition to Trump, writes @fromtga.bsky.social 📝

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🗣️ As Trump and Putin consider meeting, @agathedemarais.bsky.social explores why Moscow’s shrinking fiscal reserves could be pushing the Kremlin to the negotiating table. With no Plan D to fund its budget deficit, is Putin seeking a financial lifeline? via @politico.eu 📰

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The possibility of Sudan's division is gaining support among local & regional actors, risking further instability in an already fragile region. European policymakers need to act quickly to prevent this dangerous trend. New policy brief by Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social https://buff.ly/41jEBGz

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How should Europe respond to Trump's tariffs? In my latest column for @foreignpolicy.com I outline the economic and political case for the EU to just do nothing (hint - avoiding retaliation means that Americans will bear the brunt of tariffs) foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/27/t...

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Incoming German chancellor Merz is an unlikely candidate to lead a decisive break with the US. But an erstwhile über-Atlanticist and fiscal conservative might be the only German politician who can pave the way for a truly independent Europe. by Mark Leonard 📝

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As Ursula von der Leyen meets Indian leaders in New Delhi today, tech and trade will be high on the agenda. From AI to clean tech, the EU and India have much to gain—if they can turn ambition into action. @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝 🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX

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"Instead of invoking the next “European moment” or issuing further “wake-up calls,” the Europeans must immediately adopt an action program with a clear timetable" 📄 Read more: https://buff.ly/4bioJIZ ✍️ @claudmajor.bsky.social @carlomasala1.bsky.social @cemoll.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social

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"Some other leaders are still trying to have their cake and eat it: talking about defending Europe while working with the United States." @ecfr.eu's Mark Leonard asks how incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz can ensure the continent's defense – not least against Donald Trump's US.

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As Trump returns to power, both Europe and India are reassessing their global partnerships. Von der Leyen’s visit to New Delhi signals the EU’s intent to deepen ties with India—an overdue but necessary shift. @jamescrabtree.bsky.social explains why 👇 🔗

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CDU’s victory puts Merz on track as Germany’s next chancellor, pushing a hard-line migration plan. But @kellyp90.bsky.social doubts that the plan presented in Jan. will be implemented "because it violates EU law and European countries have said they will not cooperate." via MEE:

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India’s leadership must now also grapple with a complex, unpredictable new era in US policy in which it cannot be entirely certain that ties between Washington and New Delhi will continue as they were 📝 @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 🔗

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Europe must act now to prevent the next war. The plan: 1️⃣ Strengthen Ukraine 2️⃣ Define a ceasefire framework 3️⃣ Commit 3%+ of GDP to defence 4️⃣ Build independent EU defence structures 5️⃣ Establish clear leadership in Europe 👇

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📰 Berlin’s ties with Paris and Warsaw have been strained, but a Chancellor Merz could reset these crucial relationships bringing "new momentum to European policy from Berlin. However, this wouldn’t necessarily be a strongly EU-centric policy.” – @rafaelloss.bsky.social via @euronews.com

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Russia’s economy has proven resilient, but cracks are showing. @agathedemarais.bsky.social argues that Putin may be forced to negotiate to avoid a looming fiscal crisis as Moscow struggles to finance the war:

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🎙️ @jeremycliffe.bsky.social & @jpuglierin.bsky.social led an ECFR post-election webinar with @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Timo Lochocki on Germany’s new political landscape. Will Berlin lead Europe—or stay reactive? Now on Searching for Deutschland. Full episode 👇 buff.ly/3EVpyf2

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Poland’s silence on transatlantic shifts carries risks. Delaying a strategic recalibration could weaken its influence in Europe & leave it unprepared for a changing security order. By May, it may already be too late. ⏳by @pawelzerka.bsky.social 🔗 https://buff.ly/3XbeOzg

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As Trump and Putin consider meeting, it's useful to ponder why Moscow now appears inclined to end the war in Ukraine - for @politico.eu I outline why Russia could soon struggle to finance the war, meaning fiscal breathing room could be what Putin is really looking for www.politico.eu/article/vlad...

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Europe cannot replace US aid, but it can help mitigate the crisis. A modest funding increase, deeper integration of aid programmes & private sector involvement could cushion the impact—& limit China & Russia’s growing influence in the region. 🇪🇺 Read the full piece here👉 https://buff.ly/41dlRIS

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While recent pushes against regulation have limited global regulatory convergence, the EU and India can still shape open and democratic standards in international standard-developing organisations 🇪🇺🇮🇳 @giorgosverdi.bsky.social 👇

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Germany’s next government must tackle migration & the debt brake 🇩🇪 CDU/CSU’s ability to lead depends on how they handle these two defining issues—alongside key power players in the Bundestag and Finance Ministry, argued Timo Lochocki during ECFR’s post-election webinar 🗣️

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🗣️ "The Franco-German engine […] was largely dysfunctional under Scholz, probably an all-time low in the bilateral relationship," comments @camillegrand.bsky.social in DW. With Merz set to take over, can Berlin and Paris reboot their partnership—and what does it mean for Europe? 📰

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🎧 Germany’s election results: What’s next? On the morning after the vote, @jeremycliffe.bsky.social & @jpuglierin.bsky.social were joined by @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Timo Lochocki for a live ECFR webinar. You can now listen to the full discussion: Listen & subscribe ✍ https://buff.ly/3EVpyf2

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Germany’s economic policy is now a China question. 🇨🇳💶 As the CDU navigates its next steps, a key issue will be securing an industrial investment programme for Germany says @jankaoertel.bsky.social 🗣️

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As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝

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Right now in Berlin the debate is on whether the likely new chancellor should try and find a majority in the old parliament to end the debt brake and spend more on defence. Why? Because in the new parliament, he needs support from the LINKE. I explain here 👇 samf.substack.com/p/die-linke-...

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What does Germany’s election result mean for Europe? Merz was already building bridges in Europe before election day. During ECFR’s post- election webinar, @jpuglierin.bsky.social highlighted how he reached out to other European capitals 🗣️

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🚨 "The situation is so urgent that we need to first agree on some fundamental principles to be able to speak with a voice in Brussels," says @jpuglierin.bsky.social , highlighting the stakes for Germany’s next government. 📰 Read in @theguardian.com

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Europe and Ukraine are on the brink of disaster. An emergency program is needed that relieves the US, strengthens Ukraine—and prevents the war from spreading, write @claudmajor.bsky.social @carlomasala1.bsky.social @cemoll.bsky.social & @jpuglierin.bsky.social 📝

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🎧The latest Searching for Deutschland podcast features ECFR’s live webinar, where @jeremycliffe.bsky.social & @jpuglierin.bsky.social dissect the German election results with @jankaoertel.bsky.social ky.social & Timo Lochocki. Listen now 👇 buff.ly/3EVpyf2

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European defence cooperation is gaining traction, yet Warsaw remains hesitant. A shift could strengthen Europe’s voice in negotiations with both Washington & Moscow. 🇪🇺 @pawelzerka.bsky.social 🔍

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The worsening humanitarian crisis will destabilise fragile dynamics. Armed groups like Al-Shabaab & Somali pirates may recruit vulnerable youth, while tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray could escalate. Security risks are mounting. @ecfrafrica.bsky.social 📝

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The White House says ending the war would bring “incredible” opportunities, but “the Russian business environment is extremely difficult, the risk of expropriation is high, and the economy is not exactly booming" - comments @agathedemarais.bsky.social in @nytimes.com👇 www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/b...

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The US aid freeze threatens millions in the Horn of Africa, where countries rely on US funding for over half of their external assistance. A worsening humanitarian crisis could lead to more displacement, food insecurity, and instability. 🔗

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🇪🇺🤝🇮🇳 The EU and India should align their innovation ecosystems to co-develop frontier technologies. A joint innovation institute could drive research in secure semiconductors and space tech—strengthening both economies. 🔬 @giorgosverdi.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/4k6AdDA

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Germany’s Greens face a new challenge in opposition. With their time in government over, they have an opportunity to rethink their identity, argued @jankaoertel.bsky.social during ECFR’s post-election webinar ⬇️

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Poland risks falling behind the times in its strategic positioning. While Germany and France adapted their Russia policies post-2022, Warsaw clings to an outdated transatlantic reliance—despite growing uncertainty over the US role in NATO. 🇵🇱 by @pawelzerka.bsky.social 👇

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Germany’s new government will face a crucial test: migration. For the CDU, managing migration is a priority, explained Timo Lochocki during our post-election webinar 🗣️

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