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Omair Sharif/Inflation Insights: “The indicators suggest that we have thus far seen only a modest rise in consumers inflation expectations that should not cause much consternation for Fed officials…while high prices are still fresh in consumers’ minds, this is not the 2022 labor market.”

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Here are US Customs and Border Protection data on the volume of fentanyl seized at the Canadian border since President Trump first made his tariff ultimatum (1.02 lbs):

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E-bro-lie

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uncertainty is bad but now we are having the Fed feeling uncertain about the the uncertainty uncertainty square!!

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KC Fed Schmid: "While the risks to inflation appear to be to the upside, discussions with contacts in my district, as well as some recent data, suggest that elevated uncertainty might weigh on growth...I intend to keep my eye focused on inflation."

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Thank you to the great ECB team on the ground with me here at the #G20 meetings in Cape Town.

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“But following the remarks, a US official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the fate of the special 25% levy on Canada and Mexico — tied to border security demands — was still to be determined.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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From 2022 Q2 to 2024 Q3, real final domestic demand has increased 2.8%. The increase comprises a 0.8% rise in private sector demand and a 7.1% jump in government sector demand, the former being made up of a 3.7% increase in household consumption and a -5.1% decline in business investment. #cdnecon

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🚨 Exciting news! 🚨 My first interview is with @mattrosoff.bsky.social! Matt was most recently the Global Managing Editor at TechCrunch and previously worked at CNBC. We’ll be diving into his career, his thoughts on the tech sector, and much more. Stay tuned—this is going to be a great one!

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1) whine about the US trade deficit with Canada, which is basically all oil 2) say you don't need any products from Canada 3) say you are gonna put 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian oil 4) beg to build Keystone XL 5) ????? 6) profit

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Add it to the list: * Starbucks to Lay Off More Than 1,000 Workers -- WSJ

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i wish substack or other newsletter platforms would give me a button to show "this is not the kind of content i want from you" but hey, i am not amongst those who are paying them so nevermind 🤭

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New note: “Where Debanking Didn't Happen”

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Retail sales data for December, released by Statistics Canada yesterday, recorded a strong 2.5% rise in volume terms in the month. They were up 3.1% versus a year earlier reflecting big increases in four industries. Real sales by food and beverage retailers continued to drop, reflecting price rises.

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Back from a week off. What'd I miss?

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If you're interested in the guts of the payments system, here's a neat insight. CHIPS and Fedwire, the U.S.'s two large-value settlement systems, seem like they'd be competitors, but they're actually complementary, meshing together to create a more efficient whole.

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Can you imagine the Fed using its 5-year review to rethink monetary policy's relation with housing market? What about a potential switch to other "core" inflation measures? have to say, since following Bank of Canada give me a broader view of what Fed can be if not that internationally import

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Read the Canadian Citizenship Study Guide last night, the part where it characterizes the relationship with the US is a stark reminder how much has changed in just one month.

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There’s a clear division of labor in U.S. settlement systems, though I’ve never seen a great explanation for why. Fedwire handles domestic payments while CHIPS handles cross-border payments—95% of payments settled via CHIPS begin or end outside the U.S.

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Bank of Canada's Tiff Macklem on today's speech emphasized on this point: damage from trade conflicts will have permanent damage on GDP level Now I wonder why we don't see this line of thinking coming from south of the border's central bank yet🤔

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J.P. Morgan’s Michael Feroli: “Tariff threats appear to be rattling business confidence and contributing to an increase in household inflation expectations…Elevated inflation expectations should also reinforce the Fed’s extended pause in its rate-cutting campaign.”

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Evaluating US monetary policy over the last 150 years, it is only in the last 30 years where there was a uniform and improved performance. from Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters drive.google.com/file/d/1iLkD...

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At the top of my research page (sites.google.com/site/davidke...), I have a "The latest five" section which I update with the most recent papers, and today this chapter I wrote on my advisor/mentor/friend Michael Kremer dropped off it and I just wanted to share it. link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

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REVISED UP WOW 3.5% level means highest since 1995!!!! This is going to catch a bunch of Fed attention.

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Bank of Canada is the only one which have the "luxury" of being able to respond to Trump's tariff beforehand

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1 Desjardins: #BankofCanada Governor #Macklem is finally saying the quiet part out loud. After having been non-committal re likely #monetarypolicy response to US #tariffs, he’s now being clearer the #centralbank would likely cut rates more than it would have otherwise if a #tradewar erupts 🧵 #BOC

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(NBC News) - The Trump administration has removed Caleb Vitello, the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, from his position, according to two former senior officials with the Department of Homeland Security, under which ICE falls, as well as one current senior DHS official.

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A quick thread on the Q3 2024 QCEW data: 1/ On Wednesday we got Q3 2024 QCEW data. We now have 1/2 of the eventual March 2025 NFP benchmark source data. So far, it's consistent with a moderate post-benchmark overcount by NFP (around 470K). More on predictivity downthread.

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Fitness influencers have been talking about this on TikTok a good bit lately. We can see it in initial Wolverine versus later Wolverine

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Trump third term? Then what is stopping you from getting President Elon? 🙂‍↔️

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🤔

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Bessent’s 3-3-3 “can stabilize debt to gdp .. if everything goes his way. “But no, it can’t get to 3% of gdp .. even if everything else goes his way. In fact, deficit will still be 6% by 2034 because of exploding debt servicing costs (even if 10 yr falls 130 bps).” (via Anna Wong) @bloomberg.com

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Hot take: an index of mentions of economic policy uncertainty index is actually more potent in measuring economic uncertainty~

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Nice new paper from Rich Clarida and Kate Judge: "Emergency Lending by the Federal Reserve"

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Figure Markets "has launched the first interest-bearing stablecoin native to a public blockchain, registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission." The stablecoin will pay SOFR minus 50 bps. www.prnewswire.com/news-release...

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Breaking: at 31-Dec-2024, a record 40.2% of the #HK prison population (excluding immigration detainees) had not been convicted. That's 3889 people, also a record. Innocent unless and until proven guilty. webb-site.com/dbpub/jail.asp

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YYC, but not in that name? “Moves in bond yields fluctuate to a certain degree,” Ueda said in response to questions in parliament Friday. “However, we will purchase government bonds nimbly to foster the stable formation of yields in exceptional cases where long-term yields rise sharply.”

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Amazon taking full control of James Bond makes me have faith that a rom-com between Q and miss Moneypenny can happen (and it would be shit as it's Amazon)

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Authoritarian states such as Singapore often launch abusive prosecutions against opposition politicians.

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When can we learn not to shout "Stagflation" every time there is a negative supply shock?

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