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elisabethbraw.bsky.social
Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, Politico Europe. Author of The Defender's Dilemma (2022), Goodbye Globalization (2024) and Undersea War (2026). Geopolitics & globalisation/greyzone aggression/total defence/societal resilience. Own views
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Thank you! The maritime order only works when countries and companies adhere too it - and an increasing number don't. Including the Kiwala's owners.

The shadow fleet was bad. Now the renegade fleet has arrived. Last month, Estonian authorities detained the tanker Kiwala, which had sailed without flag registration for months. That's a further step down from the convenience-flagged shadow fleet. www.politico.eu/article/shad... Me @politico.eu

Joint procurement: credit to Sweden and Norway (and Lithuania) for spearheading a new push with their acquisition of 1,000 CVs. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/05/e...

Joint procurement is back - and this time it's different and promises to be more successful than the painful attempts of the past. Sweden, Norway and Lithuania teaming up to buy 1,000 CV90s shows where things are heading. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/05/e... Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.

Joint procurement is back - and this time it's different and promises to be more successful than the painful attempts of the past. Sweden, Norway and Lithuania teaming up to buy 1,000 CV90s shows where things are heading. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/05/e... Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.

Great to see the JEF nations continue to demonstrate the value of NATO member states' smaller groupings. In the recent Baltic Express, for example, they exercised moving strategic cargo through the Baltic Sea's less than peaceful waters. (Maritime Executive has the story.)

'In the summer of 2024, the group reportedly began searching for jobs among Russian-language Telegram channels commonly used by Ukrainian refugees. [...] They apparently came across an anonymous account that went by the name VWarrior, which Polish authorities believe was operated by a GRU handler.'

VE Day 1945 Photo credit: Imperical War Museum

Outstanding reporting by @pjotrsauer.bsky.social and @shaunwalker7.bsky.social on the Russian plot to blow up European airliners etc using bombs in parcels and sex toys. The executors of the scheme were common criminals, exactly what MI5 head Ken McCallum warned of last year. Greyzone aggression.

Yes, sub-threshold activity/greyzone aggression is increasing, and the answer (which is bound to be incomplete, because we're free and open societies) will involve not just technology but every part of society.

The Estonian authorities were gutsy, telling the very shadowy (and flagless) tanker Kiwala to move into territorial waters when she was in the EEZ on 11 April. And she did! But the prospect of her not doing so means the Estonians had a Plan B. Well done.

Ten minutes from environmental disaster in the Gulf of Finland: Great work by the Finnish Coast Guard, which made sure a laden shadow tanker didn't collide with a shoal (as reported by the Maritime Executive and others).

"The US and China are on a collision course, and nations are being forced to choose sides." apnews.com/article/chin... Very much so. It's the return of a divided world.

Crippling power cuts in Spain and Portugal. This is why societal resilience (including teaching the public what to do if vital services are disrupted) is indispensable. www.thetimes.com/article/we-m... For now, everyone can of course avail themselves of Sweden's excellent In Case of Crisis or War.

The EU will demand that all vessels sailing through its waters show proof of insurance. Good. But shadow vessels will produce a worthless piece of paper. They are in fact already doing it. www.politico.eu/article/chec...

Sweden, Finland, Norway and Lithuania are jointly going to buy several hundred CV90s. European collaboration in action. www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...

The US-Ukraine rare-earths deal: it would be a win-win (and a win for the environment) for the US to instead focus on recycling the rare earths in Americans' old gadgets. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoAT... Thank you @dwnewstoday.bsky.social for the invitation to discuss.

Requiescat in pace.

The UK can lead the world in making the increasingly disorderly oceans safer. Imagine a maritime coalition of the willing - or perhaps a maritime Premier League. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

Russia has still not returned the maritime-border buoys it removed from the Narva River - nearly one year ago. Maritime border violations matter. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/16/r...

Those involved in the shadow fleet are cunning. When authorities in the Baltic Sea region began inspecting suspected shadow vessels' insurance, almost all showed (possibly worthless) pieces of paper. There's space for more sleuthing into the owners of these ships. www.politico.eu/article/chec...

And in other recent developments, a man recruited by Russia has been handing over explosives-laden consumer products to a female agent also working for Russia -- in a park in Vilnius. These items could have cause serious injury or death.

Russia is interfering with the maritime border in the Narva River. A year ago, it simply took the border buoys that mark the border with Estonia. They're still missing. Maritime borders matter. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/16/r... Me @foreignpolicy.com, with comments by @ilvestoomas.bsky.social.

Today it's Uniform at Work day, where home guard soldiers wear their military uniforms to their civilian workplaces, including the school pictured here. (Guess the country based on the uniforms.) It's such a brilliant tradition. National security involves everyone, in different capacities.

China has suspended exports of rare earths www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/b.... America should tap into its phenomenal rare-earth riches at home: the rare earths in people's used e-gadgets. A win-win (that simply requires serious R&D) foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/08/t... Me @foreignpolicy.com

Delighted to see the 2024 top titles in global economics (including Goodbye Globalization in the top slot). www.choice360.org/choice-pick/...

Impressive work by Taiwan: - Catching a ship in the act of harming undersea cables. - And now, charging the captain, a Chinese national. He has refused to provide details of the ship’s owner. It doesn't inspire confidence in the ship, the owner or the captain.

The East German dissident Gerd Poppe has died. A few years ago, his experience standing up for freedom and democracy was an interesting historical artefact. Now it's more relevant than anyone would have expected. engelsbergideas.com/notebook/wha...

In his first administration, Trump tried to tackle/amend/correct globalisation by - focusing on Huawei. European governments, including the UK, erroneously thought the US campaign against Huawei was only about security. (An extraordinary chain of events described in Goodbye Globalization.)

The United States can liberate itself from rare-earth dependence on China (and do so without Ukraine's rare earths). The answer lies in Americans' millions of used e-gadgets.

Regarding the United States and rare earths. Here's a better strategy than trying to get Ukraine's rare earths: recycle the large amounts of rare earths in Americans' gadgets. It would create all manner of jobs too. foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/08/t... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall)

On this day 80 years ago, Dietrich Bonhoeffer was executed for standing up to evil. Never forget.

Maersk has offered to build warships for the Danish armed forces www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl.... And a few days ago, Maersk bought the railway connecting the Panama Canal's two ports. In key business areas, Denmark is a giant. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe... (Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)

"Keir Starmer to admit globalisation has failed as tariff war rages." www.thetimes.com/article/767d... No comment.

Writing Undersea War turned out to be both more timely and more frightening than I would have imagined. There are some very determined actors out trying to cause harm on the seabed. And - laudable efforts notwithstanding - Western governments won't be able to protect every cable and pipeline.

Just four days after JD Vance's Greenland visit, Maersk of Denmark bought the railway connecting the Panama Canal's two ports. In key business areas, Denmark is a giant. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe... Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall.

'Trump and Vance say the US needs Greenland. Verbally, Danish leaders are gently but firmly pushing back. But Denmark’s real resistance is likely to occur in the world of business' A must-read from @elisabethbraw.bsky.social for @prospectmagazine.co.uk www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...

Just four days after JD Vance's Greenland visit, Maersk of Denmark bought the railway connecting the Panama Canal's two ports. In key business areas, Denmark is a giant. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe... Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall.

Well, goodbye globalisation. You had a good run. The next run will be better (and include proper attention to the environment).

Delighted to hear!

What amazing company I find myself in! For the next few days, the e-book version of Goodbye Globalization is available for free (together with, among other books, Gombrich's A Little History of the World). Link below!

Pleased to contribute to @apnews.com's excellent mapping of acts of greyzone/hybrid aggression in Europe. apnews.com/article/russ... Phenomenal work by the AP team.

Electricity prices in Estonia are sky-high now: tomorrow they will hit €773 per megawatt-hour for one hour. news.err.ee/1609648697/m... One reason: the outage of EstLink 2, which was damaged by the shadow vessel Eagle S on Christmas Day. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Greyzone aggression.

Undersea power cables are an attractive target for those wishing to harm Western countries - even more so than undersea communications cables. And we depend on these cables.

Thank you @amonck.bsky.social. A few years ago, Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin made an uninvited visit to Svalbard - then mocked the Norwegians. And thus it has continued. The latest installment is accusing the Norwegians of militarising Svalbard.

(And part of the harm is higher energy prices. Electricity prices have risen dramatically in Estonia since the beginning of the year.)

The EstLink 2 in the Gulf of Finland - damaged on Christmas Day by the Eagle S - is still out of service. That's the harm damage to undersea interconnectors causes. No wonder our adversaries seem interested in them. www.ft.com/content/6c5c... (Me @financialtimes.com)

With thanks, as ever, to @barentsobserverrus.bsky.social for their indispensable reporting from the High North.

Indeed.

Russia is now accusing Norway of militarising Svalbard (and thus violating the Svalbard Treaty). It's complete bogus - but it could give Russia an excuse to retaliate against this Norwegian "infraction". www.politico.eu/article/we-n... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall)