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eoinneylon.bsky.social
Engineer and Astrophysicists. Former politico. Occasional writer. Casual psephologist. Sports nuts. Dublin based, but a Westie always.
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State body rejected me today I "... don't have sufficient experience in HE governance" despite application stating I was on the board of NUIG for 4 years. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Reminded me of the pen pushers who claimed I hadn't the maths ability for a course I applied to before; I've MScs in Engineering & Astrophysics

Have known Minister Lawless for a long time, before ever he was an elected politician. All that time, he's been a consistent and vocal supporter of Ireland joining @cern.bsky.social. It's very apt that he should be the one there to officially sign the country up.

The Planetary Society strongly opposes the sudden, indiscriminate dismissal of more than 1,000 scientists, engineers, and explorers at NASA — the largest involuntary workforce reduction since the end of the Apollo program. Read more on our stance. ⬇️

The best piece of evidence based writing I've seen thus far on the issue of rent controls in Ireland: theweekinhousing.substack.com/p/the-truth-... This by Dr. Michael Bryne (Lecturer in political economy at UCD) is a must read for anyone looking at issue of Rent Pressure Zones in Ireland.

Something for the more tech savy; Is there any way to auto-follow everyone you were following on Twitter, who has a BlueSky account, over here? (Yes I'm aware that I'm sounding more and more like my father every day.... as tech gets away from me! 🤪)

With the dust settled on the Seanad elections, 20 out of 49 seats are filled by women (40.8%) this is the best return so far for female politicians. If the Taoiseach nominates 10 women out of his 11 nominees, then Ireland would have a 50/50 split in a house of the Oireachtas for the first time ever.

For anyone interested here on #speirgorm, the list of candidates for the 5 vocational panels of Seanad Éireann elections #SE25 has been published. I've done some sleuthing to find people's affiliations/what whip they said they might take if elected. I've also put the expected outcome of each panel.

I need to start getting these framed and hung at this stage! Framer suggestions welcome #speirgorm people. Nice surprise to get in the post following the Christmas celebrations. #Astrophysics

The outside panel is set to close nominations today (external nominating bodies) for the Seanad Election #SE25. Prospect of gender balance isn't looking great with 20 women and 44 men nominated so far for the 43 seats on offer. Agriculture panel is the worst offender with 3 women up against 14 men.

Might not agree with her politically on a number of things but still a positive move to see a woman elected as Ceann Comhairle of Dáil Éireann today. Record number of women TDs took their seats today also. Hopefully this continues and we see a record number of women Senators elected next month.

One question that's still open from #GE24 is just how off is the electoral register. Using Census 2022 data, and EU voter registration averages of 80% to 90%, we see that it's off by anything from 174,000 to 564,000 people. This is something the Electoral Commission badly needs sorting! #speirgorm

In perfect Irish timing, the post election lul on social media is gonna be broken by the #latelatetoyshow tomorrow night. In preparation, I submit for #speirgorm use your #toyshow 2024 bingo card! #Ireland I wish you well tomorrow evening. (Please drink responsibility!)

Below table gives an idea of how many quotas each of the parties/groups potentially has per panel ahead of the Seanad Elections #SE25 following #GE24 results. *PA = Progressive Alliance (Lab + SD + GRN). IND/O = all others & ergo, will split all over the place!

The 2024 election is 1 of only 3 where the combined FF+FG vote share hasn't dropped in my lifetime. The 28% drop in their combined vote in that time has coincided with a 13% rise in IND support (vast majority of which are centrists). Overall drop in combined support coincides with 3 key events.

If the register is out by this much, then turnout on Friday was around 69%, not the official almost 60% figure reported. Unsurprising, however. Political parties (of all hues) used to go door-to-door between elections updating the register. This stopped >10 years ago. www.rte.ie/news/electio...

Had chats with people prior the election on this. These reports should outline how long people have been here, what they've contributed to our society, and how difficult a process it was to attain citizenship more. A lot of people have the wrong impression citizenship is frivolously handed out.

Let it never be said I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is. Backed my own statistical analysis and projection model it produced ahead of #GE24. It's proven profitable! Mathematical skills are good for your wallet folks. Who said an MSc in Astrophysics doesn't have its uses!? 😝

Ah you'd miss the cut and trust of politics the odd time alright. Looking in from the outside at the various counts and the highs and the lows on all sides, brings back a lot of good memories too. #GE24

With all #GE24 counted, there are a whopping 50 casual vacancies on local authorities across the country as a result. These are broken down as: 13 FG 12 FF 8 SF 5 LAD 5 SD 4 IND 1 each for Aontú, S/PBP and II. Lots of conventions to come shortly to replace them. 7 on Dublin City Council alone!

Looking at #ge24 #exitpoll and something just doesn't seem to align with constituency polls I've seen. Not massively out, but more than reported margin of error (1.4%). That said, putting those numbers through the model, so many last seats are just too hard to call now. Transfers are everything!

On this day in 1967, Jocelyn Bell Burnell from Co. Armagh, Northern Ireland, confirmed the existence of #pulsars —one of the greatest discoveries in #astrophysics. Then a 24-year-old PhD student, she expanded our understanding of the universe. 📺 youtu.be/z_3zNw91MSY en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jocelyn...

Following tonight's RedC poll results (and the private polls I've seen) I've got a final seat projection range for #GE24 🗳️ FF: 44 to 52 seats FG: 38 - 44 SF: 34 - 40 LAB: 6 - 10 SD: 6 - 10 II: 3 - 8 PBP: 4 - 7 GRN: 0 - 5 Aon: 1 - 2 IND: 18 - 25 Others: 0 - 2 Big 36 hours campaigning ahead.

Waiting for the @businesspost.bsky.social RedC poll to drop at 8pm so I can update my seat prediction model (coupled with some private and constituency poll data I've been lucky to get my hands on)........ #GE24

It's time. Every Xmas I run a charity appeal to raise funds for worthwhile causes. So far, in six years, we've made almost €230,000. You are always the most generous of givers. This year our two benefiting charities will be the DSPCA and UNICEF Ireland's Gaza and Lebanon Appeal. (1/2)

Updated my seat projection with the latest polls/trends: FF 44 - 54 FG 40 - 44 SF 33 - 35 Lab 8 - 10 SD 6 or 7 II 4 - 6 PBP 5 GRN 1 - 4 IND 19 - 25 Others 2 - 4 SF have the most to gain in the final week given current trends. FF/INDs with most to lose, currently getting last seats in many places.