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fchollet.bsky.social
577 posts 20,989 followers 92 following
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The hedge fund guys going "oh we're updating our likelihood of a recession to 60%" are hilarious -- we are *already* in a recession, and it's the worst recession since 2008. Remains to see if it will be even worse

submitted 8 hours ago • 2 comments

By late summer 2025 it should have become glaringly obvious whether you're going to get free elections in 2028 or not

submitted 10 hours ago • 3 comments

Initially, the tariffs were introduced because the mad king hates trade, doesn't read, and believes that having any trade deficit with any country means you are getting "ripped off". Now, the mad king is mostly trying to save face. There is no plan and no overarching goal

submitted 12 hours ago • 3 comments

New preprint finding that eliminating US global health funding over the next fifteen years would cause: - 15.2m deaths from AIDS - 2.2m deaths from TB - 7.9 additional child deaths

submitted 14 hours ago • 62 comments

One thing about Tesla that almost everyone is overlooking right now is the impact of the trade war on China sales. Chinese consumers are going to go out of their way to avoid American brands, on principle. Early indicators (weekly insurance registrations) show sales are currently cratering

submitted 14 hours ago • 4 comments

The theme for this summer is recession.

submitted 15 hours ago • 0 comments

the most appalling part of this political era is the physical harm they are inflicting on innocent people but secondary to that i find the constant smug lectures from this country's biggest collection of hypocrites, scammers, perverts, pedophiles, and overall bozos very distasteful

submitted 1 day ago • 95 comments

In a March 2021 report, ARK analysts anticipated that Tesla would sell 10M cars in 2025. In reality, it will sell ~1.3M cars in the best case scenario.

submitted 16 hours ago • 6 comments

Circa 2023 the 2025 EPS forecast for Tesla was something like $10-15? Today it's around $2, and in reality they're not going to break $1.

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

And never will again

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

It seems Tesla is detecting vehicles that may have problems, and artificially running their odometers faster so the warranty expires before they have to do any service Just incredible grift

submitted 2 days ago • 569 comments

Woke up with a crystal clear realization. The world is hurtling down the wrong path, and millions of us will not survive what's ahead. There was a fork in the road last November, between two radically different timelines, and we picked the one that leads to staggering death and destruction

submitted 1 day ago • 13 comments

There's a lot of overlap between folks who think BTC is the currency of the future and folks who think China will be the hegemon of the future. BTC is completely banned in China so both of these beliefs cannot be true at the same time

submitted 3 days ago • 6 comments

Another prediction -- EUR/USD will be above 1.3 by the end of 2026, and CHF/USD above 1.5

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Another prediction -- by end of year 2025, international travel to the US from Europe/Canada/Australia will have fallen by 70-80%. It had already fallen by 20-30% by the end of March. Leading indicators (e.g. summer bookings) are down 80% yoy. And it only gets worse from here on

submitted 3 days ago • 4 comments

In 2024, the number of international students in the US was at an all-time high, around 1.1M. Prediction: by 2028 this number will have fallen by 80-90%.

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

Two years from now cybertruck production will be discontinued, and it will have sold fewer than 80,000 units in its entire lifetime (it was originally planned to sell 250k-400k units per year)

submitted 4 days ago • 7 comments

Basically yes

submitted 4 days ago • 6 comments

A lot of "trolling" is just people showing you their natural face and then retreating to "jk jk" if there's any pushback

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

Believe it or not, I was slightly green YTD as of Friday night. Whatever happens next I cannot lose too much given my market neutral positioning (which IMO is the only way to deal with the insane volatility right now)

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

When Tesla enters its free fall phase, it will be widely assumed to be due to Elon's brand becoming toxic, but in reality that is only a catalyst, an accelerant, not a root cause. Tesla was already toast prior to that.

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments