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fraserofallander.org
The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde is an independent economic research unit providing expert analysis and insight on the Scottish economy. fraserofallander.org
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Regardless of what one thinks of the policy, the PM's presentation of a £13.4bn increase in defence a year is very misleading. It would imply flat cash for defence, whereas we were already committed to 2.3%. So addition spending is £6.2bn a year from 2027 - which is why the ODA cut can fund it

On the latest episode of the FAI podcast, @scothealtheq.bsky.social co-leads @emmanomics.bsky.social and @profkatsmith.bsky.social discuss the origins of the unit, the historical context behind research in health inequalities, and SHERU’s future goals. Listen here:

📢 NEW: Serving the Future: Final Report 📢 Today, we publish our findings from our 18-month longitudinal research with hospitality workers. This report is the final publication from our 3-year project with employers and workers. Read it here:

The Fraser of Allander is 50 this year! Read on for our plans to celebrate this milestone, and enjoy our retro 80s logo...

🚢 Glen Sannox sets sail—but what about Ardrossan? With the ferry now running from Troon and redevelopment plans stalled, uncertainty looms over Ardrossan’s future. What happens next? Read our latest blog:

Follow the link to read our discussion of the decision to mitigate the two-child limit, other devolved social security decisions, and how they relate to fiscal sustainability in Scotland.

ICYMI: Get up to speed on the latest Scottish Budget issues before the Stage 1 Debate tomorrow...

Essential weekend reading before the first stage of the Budget next week! Read about the deal, the Spring Budget Revision, and of course, the impact of employer NICS rises.

Our weekly update … what next for social care in Scotland and how strong is the Scottish labour market?

First weekly update of 2025 - economics good news and bad news... and what would be the consequence if the UK Government had raised income tax rather than employer national insurance?

After over a week heading in the same direction, there can be little doubt that interest rates are a huge danger for the UK Govt. And made much worse by barely complying with the (already loose) fiscal rules. All the headroom from October is gone

With gilt yields on the rise, should the Chancellor be worried? Have the UK Government's decisions made it more vulnerable to market conditions? And how much of a choice is there but to tighten fiscal policy? Read more below: fraserofallander.org/gilt-yields-...

🎧 New podcast episode 🎧 Mairi Spowage and João P. Sousa join Jack Williamson to talk through the latest economic data, Scottish Budget Report, and key dates in 2025. Allison Catalano, Hannah Randolph, and Ben Cooper join to discuss some of the FAI’s 2024 highlights

More on the Scottish Budget - a reflection on what the Scottish Budget means for Homelessness, Child Poverty, Employability and Social Care

🎧 New podcast episode 🎧 @joaosousa.bsky.social and @emmanomics.bsky.social join @hlrandolph.bsky.social to talk through immediate reactions to the Scottish budget statement, including the surprise announcement on mitigation of the two-child limit:

Some more reaction to the Scottish Budget, as we look at the affordable housing budget announcements and what we have learned from the tax strategy. Read more below:

Our initial reaction to the Scottish Budget: a statement with an eye on the election, but announcements without costs attached and no accounting for the increase in NICs are risky - and make us wonder if any lessons on financial planning have been learned. Read more below:

Last chance to register! Join us tomorrow as we delve into the upcoming Scottish Budget, spotlighting key areas to watch. Mairi Spowage and @joaosousa.bsky.social will be joined by @cdbirt.bsky.social from Joseph Rowntree Foundation 📅Book your place here: https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

What can we expect from the Scottish Budget next week? Our Deputy Director @joaosousa.bsky.socia shares his thoughts on our Scotland’s Budget Report for 2024 published today 📑 Read the report here: https://buff.ly/3VbgQOV 📌 Sign up for our event: https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

Join the discussion! 📢 Coming up on Monday, Mairi Spowage and @joaosousa.bsky.social will be joined by @cdbirt.bsky.social from Joseph Rowntree Foundation to explore the key challenges and areas to watch from our latest report on the Scottish Budget 📅 Don’t miss out: https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2024 📢 Today, we publish our report on Scottish Government's 2025-26 Budget. With limited fiscal flexibility and public sector pay pressures, the challenges are sharper than ever. Read it here: https://buff.ly/416qRRa

Want to know what to look out for in the Scottish Budget? Join us on Monday 2nd December in person or online for reflections on the tax and spending challenges for the Scottish Government. Registration link below - see you there! https://buff.ly/3B3dp5Z

🎧New podcast episode 🎧 Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding of ONS join @HL_Randolph to talk about how inflation statistics are produced and what they mean for households and businesses: https://buff.ly/4fqxbHv

In our latest Budget preview: how much will the employer NICs increase cost the public sector, and how does that compare with the numbers circulating in the media? Read more below:

We’ve just published the latest instalment in our blog series on the most recent statistics, research, and data news about the lives of people with learning disabilities. This edition marks a full year of round ups and covers: a thread on the latest updates 👇

Our third Scotland's Budget Report preview: this time, we're looking at the Scottish Government's resource net financial position over the year, how it's been affected by the UK Budget - and what the prospects are for whether the ScotWind proceeds will be needed

🎧New podcast episode 🎧 Lewis O’Neill and Jack Williamson explore our latest report from the GEMINOA project, looking at Glasgow’s emissions reductions between 2005 and 2022:

Check out our report on Glasgow’s emissions reductions here!

In our latest preview: how has health spending in Scotland changed since 2018-19? Our analysis shows that most growth has been in procurement (which includes agency staff). That has grown at 3.9% a year in real terms relative to 1.1% real-terms growth in pay. https://buff.ly/4fH58E5

David Jack and @chirstyresearch.bsky.social had a very productive time at the @dfnsearch conference last week. David and Chirsty shared our research during the opening panel and a workshop where they were able to sense-check our findings with experts in the field. Thanks for having us!

Will there be any relief for retail and hospitality?

🎧New podcast episode 🎧 FAI Director Mairi Spowage and @joaosousa.bsky.social join @hlrandolph.bsky.social to talk through immediate reactions to the UK budget statement and what the announcements mean for Scotland:

Important clarification - we have been speculating about whether the compensation for public sector employers due to the increased NICs is included in the £3.4bn for 2025-26 - our understanding now is that it is NOT included, it will be additional and negotiated between HMT+depts

The Chancellor mentioned that the Autumn Budget would become a permanent fixture - and we hope the single fiscal event of the year. This will help Devolved Administrations plan and increase time for parliamentary scrutiny. A welcome change

Some additional analysis showing one of the biggest takeaways from the Budget - a permanent increase in the size of the public sector, to the highest sustained level

Wondering whether a #AutumnBudget2024 applies in Scotland? Fear not, our 'is it devolved?' table is here. https://buff.ly/3YG7zR4

Our initial reaction - check back for updates, but first thoughts: A big tax-and-spend budget, and a lot more borrowing - but looser fiscal rules bail out the Chancellor. Scotland gets £1.5bn this year, easing in-year pressures, and £3.4bn next year https://buff.ly/48qEdte

In our latest budget preview blog, @joaosousa.bsky.social‬ discusses past chancellors' first budgets and what we can learn from them.

@joaosousa.bsky.social joins @hlrandolph.bsky.social to discuss our expectations for Rachel Reeves' first budget on Wednesday and what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets:

David Jack and Chirsty McFadyen were at the first Acorns to Trees stakeholder event today discussing our latest report on employer behaviour and learning disabilities. Great to meet the wide range of stakeholders at the event and discuss future opportunities to collaborate. Thanks for having us!