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With the possibility of core PCE YoY printing 2.5% today, current inflation trends are favorable and Fed friendly but of course, tariffs and the ensuing inflation uncertainty may keep the Fed from acting unless economy and labor market actually weakens

submitted 44 minutes ago • 0 comments

Month-end extension and favorable core PCE print tomorrow has Ts all green and happy

submitted 12 hours ago • 0 comments

If only Trump could do to egg prices what he's done stocks

submitted 17 hours ago • 1 comment

Jobless claims spike...this part of the calendar typically doesn't have a residual seasonal effect. This could be federal cuts starting to play out.

submitted 1 day ago • 10 comments

Reminder Feb was a refunding month where the US Treasury issued brand new 10s, 20s and 30s so month-end duration extension will be a tad longer than non-refunding months

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Curve has been flattening as we price in a craziness premium into financial assets but there should a reversal with the curve steepening once the process is close to completion

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

Fear of tariffs and second round inflation effects have weighed on the forward curve. Recent slowdown concerns though have given it a small pop and there is room for it to steepen aggressively if those concerns materialize into a full fledged slowdown

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Slowdown concerns helping USTs catch a bid in the face of supply. Cut cycle vs a month ago has terminal rate down to 3.70

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

UMich longer run inflation exp at generation highs

submitted 6 days ago • 2 comments

Downbeat SPG services. Election euphoria starting to fade

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

BOJ'S UEDA: YIELDS MAY SURGE IF FAITH IN JAPAN'S FINANCES DROPS Refreshing candor

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Long-end auctions all done for the month now with a mediocre 30y TIPS new issue (2.403 stop). 2s, 5s and 7s early next week.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Long-end catching a "small" bid on Bessent's comment that terming out the debt is long way off

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

With activity picking up in futures rolls (H5 to M5), some cross-currents in USTs until month-end. Should see some "weird" stuff here and there especially with size front-end auctions early next week

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Heavy seven days of UST issuance coming up with above normal month of long-end auctions with Thursday's brand new 30-year $9B TIPS

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

“.. the reciprocal [tariff] memo was more bark than bite, short of details with nothing being immediately implemented, and thus once the catalyst was over, investors turned their attention back to the day’s two major bullish events: the dovish #PPI and favorable earnings.” - Vital Knowledge

submitted 14 days ago • 10 comments

1-Year inflation swaps making multi-year highs on reciprocal tariffs

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

PCE friendly PPI has USTs rallying strongly into a major duration dump by the Treasury. $25B new issue long bonds being auctioned at 1 pm.

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

PCE friendly PPI print

submitted 15 days ago • 2 comments

With USTs across the curve above funding levels (daily SOFR rate) and full of carry, most swap spreads at YTD highs with the 30y tenor the big winner.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

2s back above it's daily funding rate (SOFR)

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

With the bar to rate HIKES rather high, curve actually holding together with long-end auctions today and tomorrow

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Cut cycle terminal rate a touch below 4% before CPI

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

NFIB Uncertainty Index has been surging and is comfortably above even pandemic levels

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

First Trump term tariffs were viewed as a hit to growth and gave USTs a bid. This term with inflation still a concern, they weigh on Ts especially the front-end. My take it should be more an uncertainty and growth concern but market not seeing that way for now

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments

1-year inflation expecations jump to 4.3%.... tariffs

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

It's been the typical recent pattern of a curve flattener leading up to NFP. With USTs generally up the past few days though, price action suggests a weak(ish) print. We'll see at 8:30 am

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Big chunk of yesterday's move in the long-end can be explained by 30y swap spreads and issuance relief after no change QRA. The spread is a decent proxy for US Treasury funding needs

submitted 22 days ago • 1 comment

ISM Services didn't get the post-election euphoria memo.

submitted 22 days ago • 2 comments

Big miss on JOLTS, openings 7.6mm vs 8.0mm estimated. Layoffs and quits basically in-line. Manufacturing shipments and orders were basically in-line with some downward revisions.

submitted 23 days ago • 2 comments

Curve reacting to tariffs by flattening aggressively. I think its most mostly asset flows from risk supporting the long-end. Some point soon the curve will steepen back out

submitted 25 days ago • 1 comment

Front-running of Feb-April bad seasonals. Seems lik most are using month-end extension liquidity to dump across the curve.

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

Private wages and salaries continue softening. Fed friendly

submitted 27 days ago • 2 comments

Advance reading on Q4 GDP (the first of three looks at the quarterly number before it gets stuffed into the annual revision process) due in a few mins. Economists at 2.6% vs 3.1% in Q3, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast is at 2.3%. That latter number dropped 0.9 %-pt yesterday on trade/inventory data

submitted 29 days ago • 1 comment

Pullback in Conference Board's labor market gauge.

submitted 30 days ago • 0 comments

UST 5 year swap spreads holding up well with auction coming up. Last year the spread topped in April so still have some room for further widening

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

CoreLogic reports single-family rent growth was up 1.5% for the year ended November, the smallest increase in 14 years corelogic.com/press-releases… Another data point today suggesting ongoing shelter disinflation is in store for the (lagged) official government measures

submitted 35 days ago • 1 comment