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fzucchi.bsky.social
Option & Stocks for L/S positions; corp credit/derivatives; DeMark studies; I trade in time frames of a few wks to a few mths, and occasionally a few years.
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not gonna give Bret Stephens much credit, but even he saw that disgraceful reality TV for what it was

I will never forget the photo of Zelenskyy’s face after he saw Russia’s war crimes in Bucha in 2022. He seemed to age years in an afternoon. Watching him constantly cross the world asking for aid that should have been thrown at him is one of the deepest shames of our age.

I can assure you that every fixed income and macro manager watching that meeting yesterday immediately contemplated the grim possibility where US Treasuries aren’t the risk-free asset

Picking up on a thread here this morning- the 7 times bankrupt guy on the right is all that’s standing between a default on the full faith and credit of the United States.

As of today, a new term has entered our language. A “rubio” is a spineless lump of nothing. Example: Don’t be such a rubio.

It’s not like Cheney is saying anything crazy here. It’s just, for some reason, she is able to say it when Dem leaders and the entire GOP finds it impossible.

Ready Fire Aim is a lousy way to govern.

Thru Fri expiry don’t lose track that Max $ pain for options is in the 131 line. Can/will change some, but that’s a 🧲 for now #NVDA

The only newsy item so far from the #NVDA call was their expectations of GM returning to mid 70s in the 2H. If that doesn’t happen it’d be a yuge 🚩

An internal HUD email reviewed by TPM said that DOGE was moving to cancel “all awards” for eight contractors after a “DOGE review of their websites and LinkedIn profiles.” talkingpointsmemo.com/news/doge-ci...

Speaking from experience.

This 👇

1/ #SPY trading < 100dma. There have been only 3 closes below that ma in the last year. Also 50dma has turned downward sloping. #IWM shows textbook rejection at 200dma (chart ↓). It's also trading < 50wma for 1st time since Nov'23, and only $0.70 > neckline of a freaky looking H&S pattern (↓)...

I found this amusing. But I’m a degenerate.

no one ever has given off a more realistic Cruella DeVille vibe between her and his father who married the step daughter you get the picture...

Everyone, I have seen A LOT of crazy stuff having been investing in EM for over 20years. But nothing, and I mean nothing, comes close to that bat shit crazy that just came out of that cabinet meeting with Trump. American Exceptionalism is dead. US financial assets just haven't priced it yet.

#VRT and #ANET are ground zero for #NVDA driven collateral moves; the diff is that at yday's lows VRT had already been cut in ½ from the Jan highs, and ANET was down 30%. $80ish on both wud be very tempting for me

#If u think today's move in #MDGL means u missed it, here are the EPS estimates just for Rezdiffra going out to 2029 when - maybe - other MASH drugs may finally be ready for the current indication. And the est have not yet been updated based on today's report.

Bezos bends the knee. Pathetic.

Re: #NVDA report: no idea what happens, but peeps r > worried than in Nov. ↓is the option Skew on Nov EPS day & tdy. Note how the whole term structure is higher (top line) and it skews bearish. For 2/28, max OI positions for puts & calls r at 140 strike,while Max $ pain is at 131. Good luck

You guys didn't believe me, did you? #MDGL

I miss DEI

Rep Tom Suozzi: “Very simple. Putin is a dictator. Zelenskyy is not.” What’s so hard to understand about that?

It's been 36 days: stocks lower crypto lower jobs lower consumer confidence lower inflation expectations higher historical alliance destroyed is America great again or nah

YUGE EPS day tomorrow... #MDGL ... before the open. What...?

FWIW - Many of our most popular figures today feel like they're the lovechild of a carnival barker and the gingerbread man.

While stks cud easily make a faceplant (for any/no reason) so far IG & HY corp cred risk spreads - both cash & derivs - are totally oblivious. Especially curious that IG/HY CDX are unch since Fri. close, considering that's where cred bears usually start agitating. #SPY #QQQ

Headline: " #Bitcoin ETFs suffer rare outflows" Byline: "rare" will probably not age well

Holy shit...

Out of #PLTR short

Oh good morning to you store of value!

The best way to confront a bully about the misinformation he is spreading is to confront him in front of everyone. Macron just did that.

x.com/fzucchi/stat... #Bitcoin #BTC #MSTR #frauds

Here they come. 👀 Truist cuts equities to Neutral.

🤡

(NBC News) - Some employees at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development were greeted by an unusual sight in their offices Monday: a fake video of President Donald Trump with his mouth on the toes of his billionaire adviser Elon Musk. @nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com/politics/dog...

+1 day of $20B'ish worth of new corp bonds sold.Cash/derivs risk spreads flat.At this pace, ½ $Trillion issuance 4 1st 2mths of yr will b close.U know my mantra:stks can have nasty drops/cyclical bears 4 any/no reason,but financial crisis & stk wipeouts r rare w/out cred leading the way. #SPY #QQQ

Macron sounds like a statesman on Ukraine. Trump sounds like a parrot who’s been trained on a single cassette with descriptions of the horror of the war and that it wouldn’t have happened on his watch. Zero substance. 🤡

If interested in an under the radar co in the energy construction/engineering space w/ laser focus on profits & debt reduction, a pretty hefty backlog, and that just jacked GAAP & non-GAAP EPS est for '25 a pretty decent amount, you may want to check out Primoris Services #PRIM