gdp1985.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth rates. But if you want absolute GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

When in Taipei... Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...

submitted 22 days ago • 1 comment

There's a tension between Trump's emergent desire for a clear US sphere of influence in the Americas and his opposition to those economies being integrated with the US. 🤔

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...

submitted 39 days ago • 0 comments

Some thoughts on e-CNY and RMB internationalization (replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

This report emphasizes the importance of Gulf countries "recycling" their petrodollar surpluses. The petroyuan could end these benefits for the US, it says. But Gulf surpluses with AEs (USD bloc) were far larger in GDP terms during the heyday of the petrodollar than with China today.

submitted 39 days ago • 0 comments

This is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

What's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...

submitted 40 days ago • 0 comments

What are the best research papers on Chinese industrial policy in recent years? Please send links.

submitted 45 days ago • 2 comments

Xi Jinping's single most interesting diplomatic interaction caught on video was with Justin Trudeau in 2022. Unique glimpse of Xi's approach and style in a challenging situation. This was not a favorable setting for Xi and he didn't want to actually engage, he just wanted youtu.be/4YkzzhI2EoI

submitted 52 days ago • 1 comment

UPDATE: Today is my first day at RAND's new China Research Center. I look forward to working with Jude Blanchette to expand RAND's research into new areas, especially relating to China's economy and US-China economic competition.

submitted 52 days ago • 6 comments

Just published an article that is, unusually, not mainly about maps. I've been working on a book on this subject for many years-- Naval History was kind enough to publish this piece on one aspect of the story of Alexander Macomb Mason. And there are still a few maps. www.usni.org/magazines/na...

submitted 55 days ago • 1 comment

This was Caturday

submitted 54 days ago • 0 comments

I'd like to get an EV. But I live in DC. Seems like charging EVs in cities isn't practical and that the "home chargers" I'm reading about assume you live in the suburbs. Sad.

submitted 54 days ago • 0 comments

Amazing

submitted 56 days ago • 11 comments

The military dimension can't be ignored. If the US defends Taiwan, the econ disruptions will be automatic and sanctions will be politically inevitable. If the US doesn't defend Taiwan, it's not clear why the US should/could lead some anti China economic coalition. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/o...

submitted 57 days ago • 1 comment

Beach reading

submitted 63 days ago • 0 comments

There are no DC bakeries on this list. But that's because Tatte has 14 (going on 40) locations in the area and they'd have to divide the points. If any of these artisanal bakeries moves in on DC, Tatte will crush them. "Croissant quantity has a quality all its own." www.nytimes.com/article/best...

submitted 64 days ago • 1 comment

We are delighted to announce the launch of a major new initiative which draws on the approach of the Penn Project in convening, over the next 2 years, leading next generation scholars and experts on China from throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Announcement here: bit.ly/41GUPvh

submitted 70 days ago • 1 comment

🚨Today is my last day at Bloomberg. Our GeoEcon team has done fantastic work, with more to come. Bloomberg is a wonderful company, with some of the best journalists, economists, and analysts around. I'm taking the holidays off before my next analytic adventure... 🇺🇸🇨🇳📊💱

submitted 70 days ago • 1 comment

It was a pleasure to join @kaiserkuo.bsky.social on his podcast to talk about my research! I’ve been a long time lister and really enjoyed the conversation!

submitted 73 days ago • 1 comment

I guess the US hasn't been a great naval power since WW2 then... The US only had a comparatively large commercial shipbuilding sector during the war. It hasn't had a large market share since. I wrote about this in April. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... 1/

submitted 74 days ago • 1 comment

Yes. And they should open a DTF in DC. It's a strategic necessity. I've been saying this for literally years. ec.ltn.com.tw/amp/article/...

submitted 74 days ago • 1 comment

There's a high bar for concluding that a specific work has influenced Xi because there's so little credible information about his thought process. For example, this op-ed takes official media statements about Xi at face value, when they should instead be thought of www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/o...

submitted 74 days ago • 1 comment

As commanded by @gdp1985.bsky.social. A new variant, free of national borders. Ready for your geoeconomic scribblings. Ready to print at standard 18x24 size. Open to debates about what to put in the long horizontal at top.

submitted 75 days ago • 1 comment

Almost done with this on Audible. Summary: "[x] attacked [y] with [numerical advantage/no reserves] and suffered [awful/catastrophic/irreplaceable] losses for a gain of [10 km/100 m/nothing]." That 50x. Plus a handful of actual breakthroughs over 4 years. But more movement than the Western front!

submitted 75 days ago • 0 comments

Imposing export controls on commodities without allies is hard. There are limits to what export controls can do, particularly if the country doesn't control the IP or have overseas enforcement capacity. Markets find a way. China will learn this.

submitted 76 days ago • 1 comment

China's top economic tasks for 2025: 1. Boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand. 2. Lead new productive forces with tech innovation and build a modern industrial system (industrial policy). 3. Advance economic reforms. www.news.cn/politics/lea...

submitted 77 days ago • 1 comment