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gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @ EY Vice President @ NABE Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit Judo Black Belt. Amateur Triathlete. Sports addict. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
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🙏 Thanks @kellycnbc.bsky.social & @briansully.bsky.social for having me on the Power Lunch @cnbc.com! I discussed the healthy state of the #economy today & the risks for tomorrow: slower income growth, consumer prudence in a bifurcated economy, fiscal headwinds & #tariffs 📺 lnkd.in/duS6iBYf

A key question for markets is whether they can agree on a reform of Germany’s constitutional limit on government borrowing to help finance the massive investments needed to modernize the economy and expand the military. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

Five takeaways from Germany’s historic election — in charts on.ft.com/435ooHK

Germany’s election winner pledges ‘independence from US Germany’s Merz: « And it must be an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we actually achieve independence from the USA » on.ft.com/3EMQ5uI

German elections map today vs Cold War era

Anne Frank: The Exhibition just opened in New York! Great experience offering a full-scale recreation of the secret annex, bringing the @annefrankhouse from Amsterdam to New York.

Forget the US — Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself "...neither welfare for Europeans, nor healthy public finances, nor even national autonomy, which is threatened by pressure from abroad. That is why radical change is needed" via Mario Draghi www.ft.com/content/13a8...

Inflation in Japan is faster than in the rest of the G7

⛔️Ugh! UMich Consumer #Sentiment plunged 10% in February -- lowest reading since Nov '23 ⚠️Pervasive decline across age, income & wealth led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions on #tariffs fear. Republicans seems unmoved. 🔻Current Conditions -12.5% 🔻Expectations -7.9%

Germany's energy-intensive industries are producing less than they did during covid-19 lockdowns in 2020 • Output in energy-intensive sectors (eg. chemicals or metals) is roughly 20% below 2015 levels • In chemicals sector Germany's energy costs are 84% higher than in US and 27% higher than in China

Eurozone economy near-stalled in February ↔️Composite PMI steady at 50.2 🟠Services growth decelerated (50.7) while manufacturing activity contracted (47.3) 🛑France a major drag ♨️Price pressures firmed pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

The IRS plans to terminate about 6,700 probationary workers, but a technical glitch means the agency will send paper copies of the termination letters by mail bloomberg.com/news/article... via @bpolitics

Bank of #Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a readiness to intervene in bond market to quell a surge in yields "We will purchase government bonds nimbly to foster the stable formation of yields in exceptional cases where long-term yields rise sharply" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

*️⃣Conditional Optimality= main message from the recent #FOMC minutes. Great to chat with @NPetallides about how #Fed policymakers want to see further sustainable inflation progress toward 2% before their next rate move Clip here via @EY_US @EY_Parthenon schwabnetwork.com/video/market...

🇲🇽Mexico’s Central Bank Looks to Easing Amid US Tariff Pressure ➡️Board lowered rate by 50bp after US-Mexico tariff delay ➡️Members discussed ‘new stage’ to get inflation to target bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🎙️ New Episode! Join @laurarosner.bsky.social & me on the latest ECON-versations with @nabe-econ.bsky.social! We break down the hotter-than-expected January #CPI report, nuances in inflationary dynamics, inflation expectations, market reactions & #Fed outlook 👉 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...

US federal government as a share of total employment

New York City’s new congestion pricing program is likely to be halted after the US Department of Transportation announced its plan to reverse an earlier federal approval for the tolling initiative www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The federal cost-cutting effort dubbed DOGE says it has saved $55bn in federal spending so far, but its website only accounts for $16.6 billion of that & "that's before factoring in an error in the data... that cuts savings to about $8.6bn" www.bloomberg.com/news/article... via @bpolitics

Auto #tariffs: Who is at risk?

Focus on initial claims for unemployment in DC area on Thursday

Governor Waller says he is in the "pause" camp & "tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a non-persistent manner". I think he meant "inflation instead of "prices," but if not this is surprising! IMHO, confusing & data-centric perspective federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Is there an edit option on @bsky.app ?

US Industrial #production: modest +0.5% in Jan despite soft manufacturing 🛑#Manufacturing -0.1% 🛑Durables 0%: aerospace & computers gains offset by motor vehicle drop 🛑Nondurables -0.3%: broad-based declines ex apparel 🛑#Mining -1.2% ✅Utilities 7.2% on cold weather

Oof! Post-holiday US retail sales slump in January! ⛔️#Retail sales -0.9% ⛔️Adj for inflation -0.8% ⛔️Core -1.3% ⛔️Adj for infl -1.2% ⛽️Gas 0.9% 👩‍🍳Rest/bar 0.9% 🛒Groc -0.1% ⚕️Health -0.3% 🎮Elec -0.7% 👗Cloth -1.2% 🏠Build mat -1.3% 🛋️Furn -1.7% 💻Online -1.9% 🚗Auto -2.8% ⚽️Sport -4.6%

Had to make sure this was real. It is. * U.S. TREASURY'S BESSENT: OUR STRONG DOLLAR POLICY DOESN'T MEAN OTHER COUNTRIES GET TO HAVE A WEAK CURRENCY POLICY -FBN @reuters.com

@newyorkfed.bsky.social Household Debt & Credit Report Q4 '24 1⃣Delinquency rates generally steady in Q4 at lower end of pre-Covid range 2⃣Transitions into delinquency for credit cards & auto loans well above pre-Covid 3⃣Especially for younger & lower-income groups www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomi...

🇺🇸PPI hotter than expected in Jan & revised up in Dec 🟠Headline #PPI +0.4% m/m 📉Core +0.3% m/m ✅Goods 0.6% 🍳Food 1.1% ⛽️Energy 1.7% 📊Core 0.1% ✅Services 0.3% 🚚Transport 0.6% ⚖️Trade (margins) 0.1% 📉Inflation ✅PPI: 3.5% (flat) ✅Core PPI: 3.4% (-0.1pt)

US labor market market is not a source of inflationary pressures www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-gr...