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hielkevd.bsky.social
Doctor in International Political Economy, Ghent University Scientific researcher @denktankminerva.be Interests: all things macroeconomy (heterodox & critical vantage point)
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“The EU should use trade and industrial policy to steer civilian demand away from China and toward “made in Europe” production. [The] clean industrial deal’s goal should be sector-wide policies that concentrate European demand, allowing fierce intra-EU competition but avoiding firm-specific handouts

Why we need an investment push that goes beyond defence spending...

Germany, of all countries, leading the charge for more lenient fiscal rules wasn't exactly on the 2025 Bingo card, but well, here we are... 🎶 A whole new world, a new fantastic point of view 🎶 www.politico.eu/article/germ...

What a 'great' drop. The most 'terrific' and 'fantastic' drop ever. 👐

"Today, this means that in order to be free from authoritarian blackmail—whether Putin’s or Trump’s—Europe must go green. ... Investment in green energy is the only path toward independence or strategic autonomy."

🫠🫠🫠

The Europeans will end up missing the IRA. Biden's bill had discriminatory aspects, true, but that was mainly about China. The US exports software and services to Europe, Europe exports manufactured goods to the US. That held too when the US stoked up demand for clean tech goods. 1/x

Next week, the new European Commission will put forward its clean industrial policy plans. In a new paper, @ph-jaeg.bsky.social and I dig into what this strategy needs to deliver— backed by lots of brand-new *sectoral* data on the distribution of national subsidies. Here are our main takeaways:

Seriously, why would you restrict this to defence spending? Investment case is even bigger in financing the transition. If it is dumb & sort-sighted rules hoding you back in one sector, it is dumb & sortsighed rules also holding you back in others... www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

📢 Now Published in Issue! 📢 Our article on what politicians think about the ECB is now out in @jcms-eu.bsky.social We surveyed Members of the European Parliament to uncover their views on the ECB 👉 Available at onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... And a short thread here -->

Why it pays (especially for less advantaged workers and marginalized groups) to run the economy hot.

Why employers (especially SME's) must learn to love the index mechanism. = It buffers pessimistic expectations an stabilizes consumption.

That rare beast “a euro denominated safe asset”

Voor de meerwaardezoekers: het achterliggende dossier ontkracht geen 4, maar 10 mythes! 👇 www.denktankminerva.be/analyse/2025...

As the Trusk regime is wrecking the state apparatus that brought us the IRA, it's more urgent than ever to understand the politics of green macrofinancial regimes. Here's a 🧵 on the result of @danielagabor.bsky.social and I wrecking our brains for four years. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

"Future historians may well view the Commission’s embrace of the omnibus bill as the defining moment in a lost decade of European policymaking." @alemanno.bsky.social www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/d...

Het regeerakkoord steunt op ‘mythologisch’ denken: forse besparingen worden vergoelijkt met absurde analogieën, kromme redeneringen en doemdenken over overheidsschulden. @hielkevd.bsky.social van @denktankminerva.be over de mythes waarop de regering-De Wever I steunt. www.sampol.be/2025/02/de-b...

🚨Nieuwe Analyse🚨 Arizona I is een feit. Maar kloppen de uitgangspunten achter deze ‘herstel’- en saneringsregering wel? www.denktankminerva.be/analyse/2025...

No more self-imposed handicaps in regulation, but still very much maintaining the self-imposed handicaps on fiscal policy and common spending.

to understand the 'green capitalism' part of how the US got here, read our @benbraun.bsky.social account: colliding macrofinancial regimes - when China's Big Green State meets Biden's Robust Derisking, there is one winner. New @ripejournal.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Was die Financial Times über Merz’ indirekte Kooperation mit der AfD sagt:

"Elkaar kapot concurreren op vlak van loonkosten is gewoon dom." Waarom 🇩🇪 (en 🇪🇺) een nieuw groeimodel moeten omarmen. @demorgen.be www.demorgen.be/meningen/s-o...

Dragen de breedste schouders de zwaarste lasten? Absoluut niet: De Belg betaalt op zijn (totale) inkomen gemiddeld 43% belastingen (alle belastingen inbegrepen). Wie een inkomen in de top-1% heeft, betaalt slechts 23%. Bron: A. Decoster, J. Vanderkelen, S. Van Houtven, K. Wolfs (2024).

📢📢📢

Marie & Pinotti (2024): Very important paper, also in light of the policy debates in many countries: - Immigration does not increase crime rates. - Obtaining legal status decreases immigrants' involvement in criminal activities. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... #EconSky #PolSky #MigSky #noAfd

"what it shows is the need to avoid data dependence on market moves ... You would be nuts to condition your economic policy or even your forecasts on something this volatile, but it is what the European Central Bank and Bank of England do."

STOP IMITATING/APPEASING FAR-RIGHT PARTIES FFS.

The share of Germans who say the debt brake should be amended to allow debt-funded investments has exploded in just the last six months: from 25% last July to 46% today. Add the 9% who want to ditch it entirely (up from 7%) and you have a solid majority for change. by @tomnuttall.bsky.social

Agree with Sander and Lucas here. Pointing to individual industrial policy failures as proof that it’s inherently doomed overlooks that the whole point is to take risks the market won’t. If nothing ever goes wrong, it probably means the strategy is targeting the wrong things.

In het lijstje 'what's new since 20/1/2025?' Trump verwerpt minimumbelasting multinationals www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20250... In het kort: wat betekent dit? Een 🧵

Excellent thread on the real questions Europe should be asking itself about defense funding. Highly recommended!