hitchikerspie.bsky.social
Variously obsessed with Rugby Union, the NFL, and UK politics
503 posts
256 followers
784 following
Getting Started
Active Commenter
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“Mercury was in retrograde” missing smh
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I think it’s a bit about people getting the Irish flag wrong
Devastatingly funny
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Eh?
I feel profoundly confused by this bit, but “Haha you got me” I suppose
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You have the flag backwards, ivory coast 🇨🇮 vs Ireland 🇮🇪
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Is this an Ivory Coast joke I’m not in on? 🇮🇪
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Fortunately it’s not AI generated
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You’re free to do what you like, but going and yelling at people for what they say is also tone policing in a different colour.
Go ham though, I’m sure you’ll solve this one bigot at a time 🙄
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Bigots are functionally indistinguishable from trolls, and trolls win via attention.
I don’t think “sunlight is the best disinfectant” works here, nor is it likely to spur them into self-reflection.
Happy to be told I’m wrong, but history suggests “hey go yell at this idiot” never fixed much 🤷♀️
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You don’t have the disabled key?
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Encouraging a dump on?
Just block and abandon rather than promote them…
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You called EPA estimated points added, but I think it’s normally seen as “expected points added”, though functionally the same thing I suppose.
In any case: a good read
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Yep, Europe clearly needs to spend more on defence to protect its territorial and security interests from Russia.
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Fair point, saw an argument that Labour 24 already lost fungible voters so harder for them to stoop lower in vote share despite the disproportionate seat share result.
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Overall think that an unlikely outcome, if you’re turned off by Farage’s rhetoric it seems much more likely to stay with Tories, or even go Lib Dem (depending on constituency) than swing further left as a reaction.
That’s without considering impact of Kemi as leader but don’t think huge as w/ Rishi
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Yes, I think during the pandemic there were some wonderful examples of how different minority groups behaved with e.g. vaccine uptake. With striking differences between Indian vs Bangladeshi/Pakistani communities, even within different constituencies there can be local MP factors swinging diff ways.
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Fully agree here, there’s a lot of evidence that Gaza was highly animating for the Muslim cohort, but much less so for the “Watermelon Green” cohort who had dissatisfaction over a wider range of issues.
That’s only 4-5 seats but even a slight reversion to mean would give huge boost to majorities.
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Oh I think you could make a Sankey diagram where of the minority voters who left labour this election you get some three-way split of “return to party”, “change voting affiliation”, “become non-voter”
It seems likely that the plurality land in the first camp owing to community inertia.
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Lovely graph.
I’d be curious how non-voters come out if you have the data; (even if they’re a less important cohort as less likely to vote definitionally), purely because this was such a low turnout election expect it would have more impact GE29
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Seems reasonable to assume there’s some “free” gains to be made from the more heavily Muslim areas as the Gaza conflict subsides, as well as dissatisfaction with Indy MPs who have a terrible re-election record
Also currently Labour seems to be pitching more rightwards on imgrtn to secure older vote
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Under 27s are the worst voting cohort *by far* it does seem naive to target their voting preferences too hard, especially when their geographic distribution is known to be less electorally advantageous
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Would be interested to hear the DVOA/DYAR splits by Quarter for teams/players
Worthy garbage time performance was unreal...
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2015 hype again
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Me watching the end of that game...
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I can see why rules like that were introduced, however the unintended consequences make it harder to deliver.
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Quite literally environmental regulation holds back our ability to build quickly
Near me they had to chop down trees 6 months ahead of schedule in winter so some birds wouldn't be nesting there in summer when they were building
Stuff like that is just one story of many that holds up infrastructure
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Crazy to think Mahomes is halfway through a Joe Montana career length, but only ~1/3 for a Brady one
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His votes also cooked ngl
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They literally published all the ballots for all the awards
apnews.com/sports/how-t...
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Get over your conspiracy, the AP already shows this and guess what... Brady had Daniels #1 too
apnews.com/how-they-vot...
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I think <generally> there should be an implicit understanding you can work on multiple things at once.
Also by-the-by this is more of an expansion of civil rights than any specific act of societal redistribution, and should be seen as such.
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Potentially, but pats can call jailbreak there and then maybe save a timeout or get a turnover. I think you're in "protect the ball" mode much more there.
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Now that's partly just small sample size, but you also have inf shots to stop them on defence again. Fine decision making tbh.
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Iirc the win probability models *love* that decision, and tbh it felt correct to me at the time, even as a Patriots fan who fancied our chances of going down the field.
2PC is just a very useful thing to have in your hand as a defence, beyond which Brady in his career is *below* average on them.
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They already did 2 bye weeks in 1993 iirc
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I'm happy to re-reiterate, centrist candidates from the two major parties have a long history of success.
Even Boris can be well argued as having run to the centre from a conservative perspective.
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You're right, Corbyn swept the FPTP system with facts and logic, the british public yearn for him once more
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Inertia doesn’t mean older, it is the tendency of things in motion to stay in motion.
People who have already voted for the Lib Dem’s are very happy to do so, (ditto labour, tories etc).
Changing patterns to begin with is the issue.
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Lack of inertia, it's the same reason new parties struggle so massively in the UK, e.g. Change UK's little daliance.
The REFUK infrastructure is nearly entirely the same brass from the UKIP days with a few swaps.
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No, you can win as a non-centrist, but the UK electorate is clearly well disposed for boring centrists, and because of FPTP it makes it easier for them to win.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-poli...
Not to mention section 28 etc...
There's plenty I disagree with Streeting's approach, but Thatcher's was one from literally worlds ago.
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If faced with the option of stage 2 vs stage 4 cancer I think there’s an obvious preference.
I don’t *want* either but I will actively choose the least bad option.
🤷♀️ it’s not fun but it’s the civic duty, and I do reject the framing <broadly> but within the confines of your argument choice is clear
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If I may ask how did you vote this past election?
How is the revolution going?