jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
policy, $, political economy of race // 70-80s soul, 90s hip hop // #DubNation // proud product of miscegenation // Berkeley prof (formerly: Princeton CSDP, UW)
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www.nber.org/papers/w32711 it’s one of the like 4 papers in this series
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The main difference is "paid late" and "unpaid" are both wage theft. The first statement is about workers who experienced EITHER of these vs. experienced NEITHER.
Then later the 8 percentage points difference is for paid late and unpaid separately. So
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Basically there could be all kinds of more networked and collective effects of cash transfers. Same thing with social democracy generally: ending deprivation doesn't just change the poor, it changes the whole society
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One theory is that the cash recipient might get some stress from having to newly learn & focus on their finances (it can be rational to not look at account info, credit card interest, etc until getting influx of cash). But their friends & family might be better off and not face that stress!
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Damn that sucks
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It’s mostly game theory but 💯
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I'd argue that retrospective voting also requires voters to have ideas about the relationship between policy/governance and outcomes (to assign responsibility). How do they come up with these ideas? Zaller-style
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The institutions that mediated people's understandings of the relationship between policy and outcomes are dead and have been replaced by social media
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Totally agree. Declining social institutional trust due to previous elite failure is exactly what led to this
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We’re doing VoteCast in part 3 and ces final release. Our initial VoteCast estimates are more evenly split than this. I’m curious about the sample frame—only like 8% are nonvoters
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My NYT colleague Elisabeth Bumiller has already written an outstanding piece on this exact point. I am just noting that I am encoutering this again and again, almost every day. Here is Elisabeth's piece from last month.
nyti.ms/3R9xkon
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The Grumbach Hypothesis
So we need to talk about turnsuasion
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Turnout and persuasion tend to go together and it depends on the election, but yes the publicly available data suggests that higher turnout in 2024 would've helped Democrats
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I should say *support Harris over Trump, given the large support for third party candidates and "none of the above" among non-voters
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Many are using these estimates to argue that Dem candidates should get more moderate to attract swing voters. To them, to believe otherwise is to ignore the harsh reality that "higher turnout helps Republicans."
But the public data doesn't support this claim.
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The pundit/consultant claims are pretty big, and really publicly documented. In the spirit of science, we posted replication code and data that you can check.
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The other claim is from Shor, who has a table saying that the popular vote would be Trump +4.8 if everybody had voted. That would require non-voters to be at least +10 Trump. There's no public documentation for the estimate, but it's way off from publicly available data.
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We also use national voter file data to show that among non-voters, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 2 to 1.
For Trump to get a majority of non-voters, he'd need to win all registered Republicans plus 73% (damn, that's high) of registered Independents.
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We use the newly released 2024 CES preliminary release data to show that non-voters are majority Democratic and majority for Harris.
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You've probably seen this NYT figure, the main piece of evidence of the claim that nonvoters are Republican. But it's survey data from before Biden even dropped out.
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