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jamessmithrf.bsky.social
Research Director at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed mainly on macroeconomics (mainly).
195 posts 1,785 followers 440 following
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Posts 14 Comments 36

Want to watch someone try to explain the significance of some complicated data in <60s? Today is your lucky day...

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Cara Pacitti has all you need to know on this morning’s public finances data here. A lot going on here but overall it wasn’t good news for the Chancellor despite a record monthly surplus.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Morning! New public sector finances data out today for January 2025, a key month for tax receipts just a month out from the OBR’s next forecast – with lots to worry about for the Chancellor. A thread…

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

What might today’s inflation figures & yesterday’s labour market data mean for interest rates? A quick thread

submitted 14 days ago • 2 comments

This should of course say education not energy (turns out I can't get out of the mindset of talking about energy!).

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

New year, new inflation – CPI picks up to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, above BoE and market forecasts. Thread on what is driving this rise – and where this new bout of inflation is headed – to follow…

submitted 15 days ago • 2 comments

Here is the full story on today's surprising UK GDP release from @simonpittaway.bsky.social 👇

submitted 21 days ago • 1 comment

Here's @emilyfry.bsky.social with details of this morning's trade data where the weak post-Brexit goods trade theme continued...

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

Three things we learnt from the Bank today: 1) growth this year expected to be much weaker, bad news for all of us and for the Chancellor if the OBR agree (especially because the Bank says its supply-side weakness which could matter even for a 5 year ahead fiscal rule)..

submitted 27 days ago • 1 comment

Chris is absolutely right here - dovish votes but hawkish forecasts today from the BoE. Forecasts have inflation v.close to 2% at 2y and 3y point validating higher-than-current pricing rates taken during January spike.

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

In the interests of full disclosure, BoE is forecasting *0.7%* growth this year (is 0.65% to 2dp) but have still marked down GDP growth a whopping 0.9ppts from November (not 0.6% as stated here - BoE spreadsheet issues). The gap with the OBR's forecast for 2025 (2%) is now pretty huge!

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

As expected, @bankofengland cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 4.5%, the third cut since August. Much bigger issue is any change in its outlook. Here 2 votes 0.5ppts suggests BoE may go faster on cuts, but BoE is gloomy on supply growth + worried about wages. Thread on that to follow…

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

New @resfoundation.bsky.social work out today on the Government's recent economic woes and what should be done. Short thread on the findings... https://buff.ly/4hAwdcl

submitted 34 days ago • 1 comment

How serious are recent market jitters for the UK economy? And how should the Chancellor respond? Join us on Thursday to discuss with @ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @elerianm.bsky.social, Katharine Neiss and @jamessmithrf.bsky.social. Tickets here 👉 https://buff.ly/42szqGD

submitted 36 days ago • 0 comments