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jbuddavis.bsky.social
Environmental & Geophysics Consulting | CFB Analytics 🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge buymeacoffee.com/jbuddavis
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📊Regional Bias in CFB Recruit Rankings ▫️NE most underrated region ▫️South & West appropriately ranked ▫️Rural + Minor Metro consistently underrated ▫️BIG adjustment for value: ▫️#300 Rk Rural South recruit = #100 rk in Exp Value ▫️#100 Rk NE Minor Metro = Borderline 5 Star

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

📊Over/Under-Rated Metro Area HS Recruits ▫️Miami somehow underrated recruiting territory ▫️LA & SF: not THAT different ▫️Philly one of the most underappreciated recruiting territories in the US ▫️Birmingham = Saban Effect? ▫️Non South-FL is rough (JAX - ORL - TPA - NP)

submitted 27 days ago • 1 comment

đź‘€

submitted 29 days ago • 1 comment

📊Predictiveness of Official Visits pt 2 Recruiting Services Underrate Recruits who: ▫️Take 4 OVs ▫️Commit to teams that performed well in FPI the previous year (or coach & development effect!) ▫️Visited many high-FPI teams

submitted 31 days ago • 0 comments

📊Official Visit Data Analytics ▫️Recruit Rank appears to already account for OVs (flat DVOE) ▫️OV Quality calc'd by Bradley-Terry methods ▫️4 OVs could be signal, but will need to look at more data ▫️OV Quality metrics are flat ▫️TLDR: don't use OVs to adjust recruit ranks

submitted 32 days ago • 0 comments

Working on developing my own HS recruit rankings using ML methods Draft Probability predictions for 2019 Left and 2024 Right This is version 0.1, but overall like where we're going

submitted 39 days ago • 1 comment

Working on a ML model to predict future draft value for HS recruits It’s a tall order since the draft is a 1/15 filter and the DV curve is exponential But we know there is predictive info (like pos normalized ht/wt!) Feature engineering is gonna be key here

submitted 40 days ago • 1 comment

submitted 41 days ago • 0 comments

📊UF 2023 Roster Vizualization DEF ▫️Serious DL weight ▫️Great size on FR K. James & Collins ▫️Put Weston @ EDGE /s ▫️T. Mitchell is a dude OFF ▫️Love the OL WT & HT distribution ▫️Hansen is gonna murder a DB ▫️Savaiinaea & Zip don't have the body types ▫️Nice blend of WR sizes

submitted 614 days ago • 0 comments

Insights from SIS college-level "Defenders in the Box" data: ▫️Results are intuitive ▫️4-5 man boxes limit pass game, but are vulnerable to run ▫️7-9 man boxes limit run game, but are vulnerable to the pass ▫️6 man boxes perform well vs both run & pass (goldilocks)

submitted 626 days ago • 0 comments

How I Make Opponent Adjusted CFB Stats using Ridge Regression https://t.co/G7rF11Wgsc

submitted 626 days ago • 1 comment

The first part of my data dive into the CFB transfer portal is up at @cfbnumbers.bsky.social Most results are intuitive & the portal largely seems to function to help players find an appropriate level of competition https://cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/statistical-properties-of-the-cfb?utm_source=url

submitted 626 days ago • 0 comments

This is probably expected, but I've never seen it visualized: there is a clear relative age bias in highly rated HS football recruits.

submitted 626 days ago • 0 comments

Gonna move some of my most useful Twitter posts over here

submitted 626 days ago • 0 comments

📊What Factors Predict CFB Recruiting Success ▫️Part 1: Talent Availability ▫️Roughly 30% of recruiting can be explained by Location ▫️200 mi found to be most-predictive distance for Top 300 players ▫️No surprise Bama/UGA have recruiting success ▫️Deviations discussed in Part 2

submitted 626 days ago • 1 comment

My home for the next two weeks… still less toxic than a 247 board

submitted 646 days ago • 0 comments

did some back of the envelope math on the rad exposure of 138 flights & 55,593 miles probably a +50-75 mrem exposure roughly the same as 6 chest x-rays. probably took 1 hr off his life expectancy https://www.reddit.com/r/berkeley/comments/13hv95y/i_survived_living_in_la_and_commuting_to_cal_by/

submitted 668 days ago • 0 comments

Billy Napier's Roster Makeover - Napier Recruits/Transfers make up 56 of 83 roster scholarships (67%) -Napier Guys make up 204 of 265 (77%) remaining eligibility years -Mullen Guys make up majority of players w/ 1-2 years of eligibility (17/27; 63%). Next year will be ~50/50

submitted 668 days ago • 0 comments